January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

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January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:04 pm

Good Evening -

Please use this thread for observations and further discussion. Here's what I'm seeing...

300mb jet streak on the 18z RGEM shows incredible structure and position. A sharper trough which should try to lure the surface low toward the coast.



Water vapor imagery shows higher cloud tops filling in on the NW side. This suggests the expansive precip field models are showing is real.



Current observations are already developing a low pressure system in the Gulf.



Radar looks really good. All that convection makes me believe the short range trends of N&W are legitimate.



In short, almost all guidance late this afternoon shifted the heavier snow bands further inland. All these changes we're seeing aloft in the short run COULD have big implications on snow totals. So, with that said:



I don't have time to create a new snow map. But I can say the above has a high chance of busting low. I will stick with these totals, but my gut is now telling me all of LI will see 4-8 inches, with parts of eastern LI approaching 10 inches. That 4 to 8 inch swath extends into Jersey Shore and southern NJ. For NYC, I think 3 to 6 inches is now likely. This includes areas just north and ALL of eastern NJ besides the immediate coast. Western NJ will be where the cut offs become noticeable. I'll keep them in a 1 to 3 inch zone with potential up to 4 inches. This area of 1 to 3 includes eastern PA and those well N&W of NYC.

At the time I made my snow map I wasn't comfortable pulling the trigger on higher amounts. But current observations and short term trends have me thinking differentely. I don't think I've ever cheered myself to bust low. If I do, the observations outlined above will be the reason why.

Happy Tracking.

Ciao!

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:06 pm

Start time remains 5-7am. End time between 5-7pm.

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:12 pm

NEW SREFS have .50" right near NYC. That's over 6 inched with ratios.


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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:16 pm

I'm headed out tonight to celebrate a buddies 40th B Day so I won't be able to post much if at all. If I do post later and it doesn't make much sense this is why. So before I leave you all for the night I will leave you with these thoughts on the latest trends...


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:18 pm

Wow.

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:18 pm

Frank i stink at reading you above map. Is 0.5 the dark blue or the dark green

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:25 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Frank i stink at reading you above map. Is 0.5 the dark blue or the dark green

Blue

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:28 pm

Frank...how was it working from home today?? Does the nam come out soon? ps loved the chat room last night easy to follow everyone!!
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:30 pm

It was distracting for obvious reasons. NAM comes out in 15 minutes about. Yes, chat was super fun.

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2017-2018:

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It was distracting for obvious reasons. NAM comes out in 15 minutes about. Yes, chat was super fun.

hopefully you got some things done!! at least you were in the comfort of your own home and did not have to commute...ps.my niece is supposed to fly in to newark tom at 4 from portland...its prob not going to be a good day to travel...
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:36 pm

HRRR keeps shifting NW too



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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:39 pm

Frank the areas of dark green are 0.25 liqiuid or 2 to 3 inches of snow with ratios.

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:39 pm

GEM-LAM, an accurate model at this range, just broke the Internet. Prepare for a snowy day tomorrow


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:41 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Frank the areas of dark green are 0.25 liqiuid or 2 to 3 inches of snow with ratios.

.25 with ratios is 3-5 inches of snow. More lime 4 to 5

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:44 pm

NAM coming in now. Already looks stronger

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:46 pm



Latest 21z SREF mean for Islip nearly 9" now. Up from 6.8 from 15z run.
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 pm

Sorry, I can't be sucked in again..... I have to work tomorrow, so I'll bring my boots just in case I get more then an inch....

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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Sorry, I can't be sucked in again..... I have to work tomorrow, so I'll bring my boots just in case I get more then an inch....

You're getting at least 3 inches of snow tomorrow

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
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2017-2018:

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:49 pm

NAM already really juicy out to 15 down on the delmarva. Blues down there
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:50 pm

And a tad further west with the precip shield
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:50 pm

Here she comes




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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:52 pm

wow this precip shield is west of 18z and I would have taken that run in a heartbeat
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:53 pm





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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:55 pm




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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:55 pm




0z Top, 18z Bottom
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

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