January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
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January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Good Evening -
Please use this thread for observations and further discussion. Here's what I'm seeing...
300mb jet streak on the 18z RGEM shows incredible structure and position. A sharper trough which should try to lure the surface low toward the coast.
Water vapor imagery shows higher cloud tops filling in on the NW side. This suggests the expansive precip field models are showing is real.
Current observations are already developing a low pressure system in the Gulf.
Radar looks really good. All that convection makes me believe the short range trends of N&W are legitimate.
In short, almost all guidance late this afternoon shifted the heavier snow bands further inland. All these changes we're seeing aloft in the short run COULD have big implications on snow totals. So, with that said:
I don't have time to create a new snow map. But I can say the above has a high chance of busting low. I will stick with these totals, but my gut is now telling me all of LI will see 4-8 inches, with parts of eastern LI approaching 10 inches. That 4 to 8 inch swath extends into Jersey Shore and southern NJ. For NYC, I think 3 to 6 inches is now likely. This includes areas just north and ALL of eastern NJ besides the immediate coast. Western NJ will be where the cut offs become noticeable. I'll keep them in a 1 to 3 inch zone with potential up to 4 inches. This area of 1 to 3 includes eastern PA and those well N&W of NYC.
At the time I made my snow map I wasn't comfortable pulling the trigger on higher amounts. But current observations and short term trends have me thinking differentely. I don't think I've ever cheered myself to bust low. If I do, the observations outlined above will be the reason why.
Happy Tracking.
Ciao!
Please use this thread for observations and further discussion. Here's what I'm seeing...
300mb jet streak on the 18z RGEM shows incredible structure and position. A sharper trough which should try to lure the surface low toward the coast.
Water vapor imagery shows higher cloud tops filling in on the NW side. This suggests the expansive precip field models are showing is real.
Current observations are already developing a low pressure system in the Gulf.
Radar looks really good. All that convection makes me believe the short range trends of N&W are legitimate.
In short, almost all guidance late this afternoon shifted the heavier snow bands further inland. All these changes we're seeing aloft in the short run COULD have big implications on snow totals. So, with that said:
I don't have time to create a new snow map. But I can say the above has a high chance of busting low. I will stick with these totals, but my gut is now telling me all of LI will see 4-8 inches, with parts of eastern LI approaching 10 inches. That 4 to 8 inch swath extends into Jersey Shore and southern NJ. For NYC, I think 3 to 6 inches is now likely. This includes areas just north and ALL of eastern NJ besides the immediate coast. Western NJ will be where the cut offs become noticeable. I'll keep them in a 1 to 3 inch zone with potential up to 4 inches. This area of 1 to 3 includes eastern PA and those well N&W of NYC.
At the time I made my snow map I wasn't comfortable pulling the trigger on higher amounts. But current observations and short term trends have me thinking differentely. I don't think I've ever cheered myself to bust low. If I do, the observations outlined above will be the reason why.
Happy Tracking.
Ciao!
_________________
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Start time remains 5-7am. End time between 5-7pm.
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_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
NEW SREFS have .50" right near NYC. That's over 6 inched with ratios.
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
I'm headed out tonight to celebrate a buddies 40th B Day so I won't be able to post much if at all. If I do post later and it doesn't make much sense this is why. So before I leave you all for the night I will leave you with these thoughts on the latest trends...
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Frank i stink at reading you above map. Is 0.5 the dark blue or the dark green
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
2004blackwrx wrote:Frank i stink at reading you above map. Is 0.5 the dark blue or the dark green
Blue
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Frank...how was it working from home today?? Does the nam come out soon? ps loved the chat room last night easy to follow everyone!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
It was distracting for obvious reasons. NAM comes out in 15 minutes about. Yes, chat was super fun.
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:It was distracting for obvious reasons. NAM comes out in 15 minutes about. Yes, chat was super fun.
hopefully you got some things done!! at least you were in the comfort of your own home and did not have to commute...ps.my niece is supposed to fly in to newark tom at 4 from portland...its prob not going to be a good day to travel...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
HRRR keeps shifting NW too
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Frank the areas of dark green are 0.25 liqiuid or 2 to 3 inches of snow with ratios.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
GEM-LAM, an accurate model at this range, just broke the Internet. Prepare for a snowy day tomorrow
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
2004blackwrx wrote:Frank the areas of dark green are 0.25 liqiuid or 2 to 3 inches of snow with ratios.
.25 with ratios is 3-5 inches of snow. More lime 4 to 5
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
NAM coming in now. Already looks stronger
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Latest 21z SREF mean for Islip nearly 9" now. Up from 6.8 from 15z run.
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-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Sorry, I can't be sucked in again..... I have to work tomorrow, so I'll bring my boots just in case I get more then an inch....
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Dunnzoo wrote:Sorry, I can't be sucked in again..... I have to work tomorrow, so I'll bring my boots just in case I get more then an inch....
You're getting at least 3 inches of snow tomorrow
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
NAM already really juicy out to 15 down on the delmarva. Blues down there
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-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
And a tad further west with the precip shield
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-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Here she comes
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
wow this precip shield is west of 18z and I would have taken that run in a heartbeat
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-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
_________________
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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