01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:20 am

Here is the GFS 7am-1pm on Sunday. Notice the High to the north. It's snowing over our area.





Then Wave 2 moves in on Monday. The HP shifts to our Northeast and there is NOT another one coming in behind it. This gives the SE Ridge room to flex and bring in mild temps.



It looks like there is 2 waves again. One on Sunday and another on Monday. This could move up to Saturday and Sunday. We'll see how this progresses during the week.



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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:27 am

FWIW this far out the NWS has the HP so strong over the NYS/Canadian border on the weekend, that the precip is mostly suppressed south.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:51 am

Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.

wow, ice is a big no no lol
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:00 am

I will have to keep a close eye on this. Heading to Boston Saturday morning and coming back Monday afternoon. That high pressure to the north seems pretty strong. Hope it keeps the precip down here for all of you and leaves me alone in Boston.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:03 pm

Euro looks good today for New York City metro 4 to 6 inches. GFS weaker CMC suppressed
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:16 pm

Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too. Should be a fun one to track. I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it. I like these set ups.

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by jake732 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too.  Should be a fun one to track.  I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it.  I like these set ups.

these set ups look great for north of nyc! should be a fun last few days
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:23 pm

The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:50 pm

That HP is huge in this set up - and can we get one to fall on a Sunday into Monday??
Anyway IF we get the energy to eject fast out of the SW then we could see bigger snows but that is a BIG IF.
Need this depiction through Friday with a stronger JET off the split flow and tap some of that juicy GOM.
There is going to be a sleet/snow line here and my guess as I have seen in the past with such storms is a take a line basically juts south of I 80 and followed it out through Jersey and east somewhat though I think the South of LI (split it in half) is the same as the SE ridge is pumping.

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:50 pm

How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:00 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Looked like 3 to 6 inches

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Looked like 3 to 6 inches

Thank you.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by TheAresian on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:09 pm

Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:24 pm

TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:28 pm

hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not cheers

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:28 pm

algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge

On thin g to keep in mind is yes we would all love a big system comig out and passing south and deepening, but IMO that isnt what we want. A stronger system will amplify the ridge out in front and cut it west. The weaker waves is what we want as we will have the baroclinically enhanced snow totals, that will not be seen this far out. Trust me if the euro happened verbatim totals would likely be higher in baroclinically enhanced front o genesis.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:31 pm

amugs wrote:
hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not cheers

Thanks mugs. I won't hold you to it. I just can't view euro or ukie.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:58 pm

have to get teh maps off Meteocenter these are over showing 4-7"



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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:22 pm

Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by TheAresian on Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:24 pm

algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:53 pm

TheAresian wrote:
algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.
at this time suppression may be an issue for you with wave one, however you should have snow and sleet Tuesday and better shot at frozen with the second wave around Monday.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
here ya go jon...
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:14 pm

JNaps I answered your question in the banter thread

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