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01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:47 am

Models are thinking this could be more of an ice concern rather than snow. Will have a better update later tonight.

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:15 am

billg315 wrote:Thanks for the data Mike. That's about what I recall. I fear that anything coming in this Saturday stands a good chance of being rain or a quick snow-to-sleet-to rain changeover. But then again who the heck knows, it's 6 days off.

I disagree. I'm no expert but if the high pressure in Quebec is as strong as currently modeled any changeover would be going the other way. From rain to mix to snow, not vice-versa.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:20 am

Here is the GFS 7am-1pm on Sunday. Notice the High to the north. It's snowing over our area.

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26

Then Wave 2 moves in on Monday. The HP shifts to our Northeast and there is NOT another one coming in behind it. This gives the SE Ridge room to flex and bring in mild temps.

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29

It looks like there is 2 waves again. One on Sunday and another on Monday. This could move up to Saturday and Sunday. We'll see how this progresses during the week.



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Post by Guest Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:27 am

FWIW this far out the NWS has the HP so strong over the NYS/Canadian border on the weekend, that the precip is mostly suppressed south.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:51 am

Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.

wow, ice is a big no no lol
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:00 am

I will have to keep a close eye on this. Heading to Boston Saturday morning and coming back Monday afternoon. That high pressure to the north seems pretty strong. Hope it keeps the precip down here for all of you and leaves me alone in Boston.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:03 pm

Euro looks good today for New York City metro 4 to 6 inches. GFS weaker CMC suppressed
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:16 pm

Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too. Should be a fun one to track. I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it. I like these set ups.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jake732 Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too.  Should be a fun one to track.  I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it.  I like these set ups.

these set ups look great for north of nyc! should be a fun last few days
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:23 pm

The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:50 pm

That HP is huge in this set up - and can we get one to fall on a Sunday into Monday??
Anyway IF we get the energy to eject fast out of the SW then we could see bigger snows but that is a BIG IF.
Need this depiction through Friday with a stronger JET off the split flow and tap some of that juicy GOM.
There is going to be a sleet/snow line here and my guess as I have seen in the past with such storms is a take a line basically juts south of I 80 and followed it out through Jersey and east somewhat though I think the South of LI (split it in half) is the same as the SE ridge is pumping.

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:50 pm

How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:00 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Looked like 3 to 6 inches

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Looked like 3 to 6 inches

Thank you.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:09 pm

Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:24 pm

TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:28 pm

hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not cheers

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:28 pm

algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge

On thin g to keep in mind is yes we would all love a big system comig out and passing south and deepening, but IMO that isnt what we want. A stronger system will amplify the ridge out in front and cut it west. The weaker waves is what we want as we will have the baroclinically enhanced snow totals, that will not be seen this far out. Trust me if the euro happened verbatim totals would likely be higher in baroclinically enhanced front o genesis.

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:31 pm

amugs wrote:
hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not cheers

Thanks mugs. I won't hold you to it. I just can't view euro or ukie.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:58 pm

have to get teh maps off Meteocenter these are over showing 4-7"


01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Ukm2.2017011512_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.jpg.713acb2f23d114b3af38767136b9988e

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:22 pm

Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:24 pm

algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:53 pm

TheAresian wrote:
algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.
at this time suppression may be an issue for you with wave one, however you should have snow and sleet Tuesday and better shot at frozen with the second wave around Monday.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
here ya go jon...
01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 5873d74a86969_ecmwf_tsnow_neng_26jan9snow.thumb.png.21b8eb55298c07aa2ac5bb7f24e4a209
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:14 pm

JNaps I answered your question in the banter thread

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