01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
+33
1190ftalt
frank 638
essexcountypete
HEATMISER
dkodgis
SNOW MAN
weatherwatchermom
Grselig
jrollins628
hyde345
sroc4
algae888
bobjohnsonforthehall
RJB8525
amugs
Joe Snow
SENJsnowman
docstox12
Radz
Snow88
billg315
track17
jake732
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
Math23x7
CPcantmeasuresnow
nutleyblizzard
Armando Salvadore
aiannone
rb924119
Frank_Wx
37 posters
Page 3 of 9 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Models are thinking this could be more of an ice concern rather than snow. Will have a better update later tonight.
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
billg315 wrote:Thanks for the data Mike. That's about what I recall. I fear that anything coming in this Saturday stands a good chance of being rain or a quick snow-to-sleet-to rain changeover. But then again who the heck knows, it's 6 days off.
I disagree. I'm no expert but if the high pressure in Quebec is as strong as currently modeled any changeover would be going the other way. From rain to mix to snow, not vice-versa.
Guest- Guest
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Here is the GFS 7am-1pm on Sunday. Notice the High to the north. It's snowing over our area.
Then Wave 2 moves in on Monday. The HP shifts to our Northeast and there is NOT another one coming in behind it. This gives the SE Ridge room to flex and bring in mild temps.
It looks like there is 2 waves again. One on Sunday and another on Monday. This could move up to Saturday and Sunday. We'll see how this progresses during the week.
Then Wave 2 moves in on Monday. The HP shifts to our Northeast and there is NOT another one coming in behind it. This gives the SE Ridge room to flex and bring in mild temps.
It looks like there is 2 waves again. One on Sunday and another on Monday. This could move up to Saturday and Sunday. We'll see how this progresses during the week.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
FWIW this far out the NWS has the HP so strong over the NYS/Canadian border on the weekend, that the precip is mostly suppressed south.
Guest- Guest
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.
wow, ice is a big no no lol
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
I will have to keep a close eye on this. Heading to Boston Saturday morning and coming back Monday afternoon. That high pressure to the north seems pretty strong. Hope it keeps the precip down here for all of you and leaves me alone in Boston.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Euro looks good today for New York City metro 4 to 6 inches. GFS weaker CMC suppressed
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too. Should be a fun one to track. I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it. I like these set ups.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too. Should be a fun one to track. I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it. I like these set ups.
these set ups look great for north of nyc! should be a fun last few days
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.
Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
That HP is huge in this set up - and can we get one to fall on a Sunday into Monday??
Anyway IF we get the energy to eject fast out of the SW then we could see bigger snows but that is a BIG IF.
Need this depiction through Friday with a stronger JET off the split flow and tap some of that juicy GOM.
There is going to be a sleet/snow line here and my guess as I have seen in the past with such storms is a take a line basically juts south of I 80 and followed it out through Jersey and east somewhat though I think the South of LI (split it in half) is the same as the SE ridge is pumping.
Anyway IF we get the energy to eject fast out of the SW then we could see bigger snows but that is a BIG IF.
Need this depiction through Friday with a stronger JET off the split flow and tap some of that juicy GOM.
There is going to be a sleet/snow line here and my guess as I have seen in the past with such storms is a take a line basically juts south of I 80 and followed it out through Jersey and east somewhat though I think the South of LI (split it in half) is the same as the SE ridge is pumping.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
SoulSingMG wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.
Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.
Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?
hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
Looked like 3 to 6 inches
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.
Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.
Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
Looked like 3 to 6 inches
Thank you.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Guest- Guest
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East RidgeTheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
algae888 wrote:Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East RidgeTheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
On thin g to keep in mind is yes we would all love a big system comig out and passing south and deepening, but IMO that isnt what we want. A stronger system will amplify the ridge out in front and cut it west. The weaker waves is what we want as we will have the baroclinically enhanced snow totals, that will not be seen this far out. Trust me if the euro happened verbatim totals would likely be higher in baroclinically enhanced front o genesis.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
amugs wrote:hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?
Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not
Thanks mugs. I won't hold you to it. I just can't view euro or ukie.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
have to get teh maps off Meteocenter these are over showing 4-7"
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
algae888 wrote:Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East RidgeTheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?
I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.
Guest- Guest
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
at this time suppression may be an issue for you with wave one, however you should have snow and sleet Tuesday and better shot at frozen with the second wave around Monday.TheAresian wrote:algae888 wrote:Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East RidgeTheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?
I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
here ya go jon...jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
JNaps I answered your question in the banter thread
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 3 of 9 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|