01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:48 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.
here ya go jon...
not bad for u and I if tgat were to pan out. Does that include anything from tues or is tues look like mostly rain? Frank had mentioned in his 1st post that this had the potential for heavy snow and even thundersnow. Is a big storm still possible or bc it's two waves is it go look more like this?
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:27 pm

The GFS has High Pressure off the New England coast which would create a south/southeast flow making this predominantly a rain event with maybe a period of snow/sleet/frz rain at the outset (maybe cold hangs tough in the Hudson Valley long enough to get some snow up there). The second wave then may follow that Great Lakes path with a little light precip Monday as warm air moves north before a soaking rain ahead of the trailing cold front Tuesday when temps will have likely rebounded well above normal. This set-up doesn't look very encouraging to me. Not to say the GFS is def what's going to happen, but seems plausible, especially when we're talking about hitting 60* Thursday and 50 Friday which isn't the way I like to lead into these events.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Joe Snow on Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:30 pm

From the Boys at Upton...........................

As the day progresses Saturday, looks like precip develops to
the west and approaches the area as warm air rides over a frontal
boundary. This could pose wintry precip issues, possible snow
initially as cold air remains in place per latest GFS and ECMWF. A
passing wave of low pressure tracks south and east Saturday night
into Sunday, then more precip should approach Sunday night into
Monday as upstream trough begins to move eastward. Assuming an
increase in warm air aloft, this round of precip could be icy, with
freezing rain a possibility for portions of the area until sfc temps
warm during the day Monday.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:37 pm

I just don't see how we get enough cold air entrenched here Saturday to keep this warm overrunning as frozen precip for a long period. It seems like a quick shot of colder air Saturday quickly getting displaced by warm air ahead of two systems to our west.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:12 pm

billg315 wrote:I just don't see how we get enough cold air entrenched here Saturday to keep this warm overrunning as frozen precip for a long period. It seems like a quick shot of colder air Saturday quickly getting displaced by warm air ahead of two systems to our west.

1040+ high

THat's how
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:33 pm

Yeah but I don't really like its placement sliding off the New England coast instead of say staying planted over eastern Canada; and that this is now a 2-part system with the second wave making a b-line for the Great Lakes Monday. I guess we'll see, I just don't think it's a great set-up.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:39 pm

Jet streak will help us out again!




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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Joe Snow on Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:50 pm

GFS is running...............out to 54hrs
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:06 pm

The 00z GFS is colder than the 18z GFS valid 4am Saturday. The 1044mb HP is slightly south of last run.

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:12 pm

The s/w over MN valid 10pm Saturday is much stronger on the 00z GFS. 

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:13 pm

Another jet streak in a favorably located spot for the Sunday storm


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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:17 pm

GFS shifted slightly south with the snow. About 2-4" for NYC. I'll tell you what, we don't want this to keep trending colder or it will suppress the storm system. Also the threat of the air for those N&W of NYC being too dry. We'll see how this plays out...

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by jrollins628 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:32 pm

Where did the axis of haviest snow shift too? Or if anyone had a GFS snow map that would help!!!!

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:44 am

Video coming soon!! I can't contain my excitement, I'm sorry. I LOVE what I'm seeing

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by Grselig on Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:23 am

rb924119 wrote:Video coming soon!! I can't contain my excitement, I'm sorry. I LOVE what I'm seeing

I wish there was a "Like" button!
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:39 am

rb924119 wrote:Video coming soon!! I can't contain my excitement, I'm sorry. I LOVE what I'm seeing

Can't wait kid!!! The NWS is only showing about .33 qpf. max so I hope what you see verifies. FIRE ME UP!!!! cheers cheers affraid
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:38 am

HP over the top like the Giants O line for teh great super bowl years.
The vorts are not phasing - check so we dont have a strong phased system to bully the HP out.
Small piece seem to be ejecting out of teh SW like little kids being sent the bathroom during bathroom break - teacher analogy.
Don't panic casue things are South and may trend a bit that way - these overrunning events do trend North - liking where we are at. Not like 2014 February different set up - no PV squashing everything. Need to keep the small lp or waves ejecting out of the south west. As Frank and sroc said nothing strong or it cuts, weak is best for us at this point. R/S line going to be a N to South set up and I am liking the Driscoll Bridge area in NJ +/- 15 miles and take a line latitudinally for this (just a guess at this point with location of r/s line).

RAY is excited so hope he does as good as the last storm - HAHAHAHA luv you kid bustin chops - you got snuckered by that SW in the SW that pumped the PNA - just like that Meso low on the Dec 17th storm - greatest day of the year me bday hahaha).

Bring it home RAY we have our trust in you - IRWT!! Look forward to this video.

Syo forget QPF this far out once we get to within 36 hours then we should start this talk imo. Nice to look at though indeed.

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:48 am

looking forward to seeing the video and where the cut off will be..I am 12 miles South of the Driscoll Bridge...(we have had our share...but of course want more!!)...is this event Sunday?
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:12 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:looking forward to seeing the video and where the cut off will be..I am 12 miles South of the Driscoll Bridge...(we have had our share...but of course want more!!)...is this event Sunday?

SELFISH!!! Wink Wink
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by RJB8525 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:14 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:looking forward to seeing the video and where the cut off will be..I am 12 miles South of the Driscoll Bridge...(we have had our share...but of course want more!!)...is this event Sunday?

no no no, this storm definitely has to hit NW lol
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:31 am

I will preface this and say that the late Sat early Sunday system will either be snow or suppression..NOT RAIN or MIX IMHO.  How much snow    is still in question.  The reason being is that this time of year and this type of set up the cold always wins.  The SE ridge will not be strong enough to prevent the cold from coming Friday into Sat setting us up for this event.  

Lets look at the set up.  







Now lets look up in the atmosphere.  
 Here is the surface map again combined with 500mb indicating the s/w entering the picture by hr 96.  





HR 120:  




By hr 120 weak LP is developing along the boundary over WV.  With the boundary well off the coast the SW flow in front of this LP leads to an over running event where snow breaks out for the area.  

Setting this up, lets quickly look back at the low and mid level temps by Friday into Sat.  Once the front moves through by hr 96 temps crash at all levels thanks to the exceptionally strong Can HP.  Remember the air that the Can HP will drag down is coming from Canada that is buried in snow.  This will be COLD! and it wont be denied by some weak surface LP riding a boundary.  Here is Hr 108 setting us up with a fresh injection of fridgid air Friday/Sat for when the s/w and surface LP arrives for Sat/Sun.  

SURFACE/925/850






Now as per the 00z Euro verbatim the LP comes off the DELMARVA and pops.  Exactly where this comes off the coast will be the key to a mod-big event, a light event, or a dry event.  

Here is the 500mb and surface map hr 126





On the surface map notice the area in yellow labled "X FACTOR".  This is an area of enhanced precip well N of the surface LP center.  I alluded to this in an earlier post.  Let me be clear...if this is a mod-big event it will not be due to an intensely deepening LP like we typicaly see with a noreaster developing and undergoing bombogenesis, but rather, this will be an area N of the main LP center that will have intense banding set up in association with a baroclinically (temp gradient) driven meso banding as the LP develops once enhancement from the Atlantic occurs.  This WILL Happen.  There will be no denying these meso bands of heavy snow.  Where exactly they set up will become clear as we get in tight when we know where the LP comes off the coast, and where the best verical velocities set up.  Another X Factor which has been mentioned already is the upper level jet streak.  IF we get a favorable position it will aid in enhancing the LP development as well as enhancing upward motion aka vertical velocities as well.  

Again I want to reiterate I am very confident that this system WILL NOT be rain or mix.  It WILL BE snow or dry.  Past experience with these set ups leads me to believe the correction as we get in close is to slowly shift the track N a little, but it will keep the LP track coming off the coast S of LI somewhere between the N DELMARVA and Central NJ coast. With the perfect track I can see a max total of 6-12" somewhere. Let me stick my CYA right here. Nothing in weather is a guarantee, so I of course could be wrong with no warm solns. I will leave that possibility at less than 10% at this time. If this changes I will update my ideas.

WE TRACK!!! What a Face

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:47 am

Nice, Scott!! Although I will admit that I don't think we see totals THAT high with this; I think more in the 4-8" would be absolute max that we can achieve, with the most likely range in the 3-6" range. Regardless, those are details that we shouldn't worry about yet, and should only be focused on the synoptic overview, as you already said.

With that, and sorry for the delay, here is my apparently much-anticipated video:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYVDhDSDZwTURtZ0U

As a precaution, my excitement does not peak for this weekend because I don't see it being a "big" event; rather, for what I think lurks beyond it. However, anything wintry, such as this weekend, still gets my heart pumping a bit harder haha Enjoy, and if you have any questions let me know!!

EDIT: Just looked at the PWAT anomalies and there is a chance I could be too low, although I don't know how efficient our setup will be with regard to how well the anomalies are precipitated. Usually, however; when you have PWAT anomalies as high as they are being modeled (see below) that should be a clear RED FLAG. My mistake for not looking at them before I did this video. Still holding my ground for now, but there is certainly potential for this to over-achieve with respect to what I stated above and in my video.



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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:14 pm

Oh so sorry did not mean to sound selfish...Just wondering how far south coming...Always want the white stuff...Snow is like good glass of tequila always leaving you wanting more..lol. Knew this was a storm for you north and west guys...sorry Sad
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:20 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh so sorry did not mean to sound selfish...Just wondering how far south coming...Always want the white stuff...Snow is like good glass of tequila always leaving you wanting more..lol. Knew this was a storm for you north and west guys...sorry Sad

He was only kidding haha no need to be sorry! We ALL want the white gold lmao

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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:28 pm

rb924119 wrote:Nice, Scott!! Although I will admit that I don't think we see totals THAT high with this; I think more in the 4-8" would be absolute max that we can achieve, with the most likely range in the 3-6" range. Regardless, those are details that we shouldn't worry about yet, and should only be focused on the synoptic overview, as you already said.

With that, and sorry for the delay, here is my apparently much-anticipated video:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYVDhDSDZwTURtZ0U

As a precaution, my excitement does not peak for this weekend because I don't see it being a "big" event; rather, for what I think lurks beyond it. However, anything wintry, such as this weekend, still gets my heart pumping a bit harder haha Enjoy, and if you have any questions let me know!!

EDIT: Just looked at the PWAT anomalies and there is a chance I could be too low, although I don't know how efficient our setup will be with regard to how well the anomalies are precipitated. Usually, however; when you have PWAT anomalies as high as they are being modeled (see below) that should be a clear RED FLAG. My mistake for not looking at them before I did this video. Still holding my ground for now, but there is certainly potential for this to over-achieve with respect to what I stated above and in my video.



 


Rb Great video! My Max total of 12" may be a bit high but honestly if we get the perfect track and there is jet enhancement to the LP, areas like eastern LI and SE CT into RI and the cape could see a couple/few hrs of intense banding. The dynamics/lift enhancements via thermal gradients between land and SST are always underplayed this far out with overrunning events. I saw it time and time again in winter 2013/14 esp in March. 2-4 3-6 turned out to be 3-6 6-10" in my area time and time again. Maybe 12" is ambitious, but a nice moderate event for someone is def possible.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

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March 10th = 4.8"
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