End of January - Early February Pattern Change

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End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:34 pm

Exciting times are potentially ahead. The final month of the Meteorological winter will try to go out with a bang. Let's rock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIMCxLwxux0&feature=youtu.be




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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:43 pm

And really what I'm getting at is if we do see a SSWE, then most of February should be colder than normal with multiple snow opportunities. If the Strat does not cooperate, then I think the 1st half of February (including the last few days of January) will be primetime.

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:18 am

The LR GFS tonight has a very Godzilla look to it. We're already seeing the Ensembles agree with Operationals. This is going to make the thaw even worse, as I'm waiting wth baited breath to see what the end of this month has in store for us. I can very much see a Godzilla happening between the 29th January and February 6th.

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:46 am

Just watched ur video on some nice rum lol. I'm so hoping a roidzilla at least a Godzilla happens sounds like u have some good vibes I hope so. Do u think we will have a early sprint still in march?
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 13, 2017 6:54 am

Nice video Frank. Pretty much agree with everything. Now we wait. bounce

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:29 am

Frank,
Excellent video and I agree 1000%.
Next year kid YOU HAVE TO COME and listen to JIM WITT do his annual winter forecast presentation.
The guy has been on target since I have been at his winter forecast meetings with NJWO since 2011-12. He does this compilation of this forecast at teh end of the summer.
Again he is calling for a COLD and VERY SNOWY late Jan - to late February and I posted his thoughts on here a few times. Says we flip in early March - not much about March though, doesn't like forecasting March "an eskimo can fart in Siberia and cause a chain reaction downstream"

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:39 am

He sounds like a guy who knows his stuff. Maybe see if he'll post here?

Does he post anywhere else?

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:01 am

I agree Mugs. I would love to learn more about it. Next year make sure you bring it up again. I will try my best to attend. In the mean time if he has any publications, or sites that he discusses this stuff I would love to get my learn on.

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:25 pm

Boyz,

Jim Witt was on 1010 WINS radio for years - old school - I tried asking him if he woudl join and emphatically said NO - I am retired and I love what I do.
@Scott I do not know if he does I will have to check and yes yuo all should try to see him next year - real old school - overhead projector with transparencies but his work is precise and in depth. He is friggin funny to IMO. Let me see what I can dig up on him - maybe Zoo or Greg Petridis (Analog 96 on here) woudl know more as well.

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:33 pm

amugs wrote:Boyz,

Jim Witt was on 1010 WINS radio for years - old school - I tried asking him if he woudl join and emphatically said NO - I am retired and I love what I do.
@Scott I do not know if he does I will have to check and yes yuo all should try to see him next year - real old school - overhead projector with transparencies but his work is precise and in depth. He is friggin funny to IMO. Let me see what I can dig up on him - maybe Zoo or Greg Petridis (Analog 96 on here) woudl know more as well.

If hes retired I wonder if he has any journeymen or woman who is/are following up on his work that we could also look into. Mugs ask him if any of his students or colleagues are involved in his planetary alignment theories on the earths atmosphere.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Armando Salvadore on Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:15 pm

Starting to see the writing on the wall for a storm signal between the 26th-28th. Regardless, the data that keeps coming in is just more impressive. For instance, negative numbers against the base state in regards to the SOI. What has been driving this pattern (west pacific) or should i say the jet itself, will break down as we move forward thus increasing alaskan blocking. Interestingly enough, i read that the anticyclone at 150mb that has manifested over the West pacific, is what has yielded a poleward rossby wave dispersion like what we've seen thus far, will weaken. Goes hand in hand with an alteration of the pacific bgd, but as Tom alluded too, it won't be a definite change, but rather back and forth possibly. Only advice is rest now, and when it comes, it's going to drop the hammer.
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Radz on Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:40 pm

Jim Witt has a FB page, look him up, he did forecasting for WHUD as well for years- he still puts out his long range calendars too, very nice guy- have spoken with him a few times
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jan 13, 2017 6:00 pm

Put a link to Jim's website in the Wx banter thread...

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:32 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Exciting times are potentially ahead. The final month of the Meteorological winter will try to go out with a bang. Let's rock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIMCxLwxux0&feature=youtu.be

Nice job Frank.

We are so overdue for a colder than normal month. Granted the planet is warming for whatever reason{s}, but 19 months in a row above normal is statistically way beyond the norm. Here's to hoping it happens.
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by docstox12 on Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:05 am

I second that CP, Frank did a great job and I am hoping for this coming pattern change so we get a great month of winter.This 19 month run is definitely an anomaly and I hope a reversion to the mean begins big time this coming month.I always remember the meetup a few years ago where Frank showed me on his tablet his prediction for a pattern change that late January and he hit the nail right on the head.The long range crew here could open a School of Meteorology with the knowledge they have.
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:06 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Put a link to Jim's website in the Wx banter thread...
Zoo thanks. 
@SROC his disciples are extra ordinary in the weather world. I will list out when I am not mobiile. Talk about incredible.

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jan 14, 2017 9:56 am

nice job frank as always!!
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:09 am

Great job Frank! Looking forward to the pattern flip and some more snow.

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:11 am

Thanks all. As of this morning, nothing has changed. The pattern will flip around the 27th and we should see our next snow event between the 29th of JAN - 5th of FEB

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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by sroc4 on Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks all. As of this morning, nothing has changed. The pattern will flip around the 27th and we should see our next snow event between the 29th of JAN - 5th of FEB

I wouldnt entirely rule out a snow event between the 23rd and 27th yet either though Frank. Pattern may not be quite there but there is some potential still on the table.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Armando Salvadore on Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:53 pm

Agreed Scott, if what the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS show are correct for around the 24th, then watch out. They're consistent with heights building into the Hudson and extending towards west of Greenland with lowering heights south and over the lower MI valley. Interestingly enough, the 0z EPS has a shortwave trough just offshore of northern Cali, which if you get us into a pinching of the jet with short wavelengths, watch out. Still, the extent of the cold air to work with during that time is questionable, but i get that the time period between the 27th-30th may be more "ideal". Chaos is sure to come!
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Isotherm on Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:02 pm

I'm not impressed with the stratospheric progression through D 10-12 at least. Still no indication of baroclinicity / tilt; temperature rise is meager, and wave-1/2 grossly insufficient to induce the type of heat flux necessary as a prerequisite for an official warming event. However, as I've said heretofore, wave-1 amplitudes will probably continue to increase as we move into early February, and at this time, probabilities will be higher. On the very, very end of the D10 ECMWF stratosphere forecast, it's still far from a SSW/MMW signature to me. Extrapolating forward -- if the wave driving were to persist -- the official event would likely be another 10-12 days away. And of course, a SSW doesn't necessarily guarantee a blocky troposphere either, due to uncertainties regarding effective downward propagation.



There will be a disruption sufficient to enable the development of tropospheric higher geopotential heights over the EPO/PNA domains and Canada, reflective of the strat progression. One possibility is that the MJO propagation can aid in slowing the North Atlantic jet temporarily w/ a transient -NAO period in the early part of February coincident with the PNA/EPO amelioration.



Essentially, I still like the idea of the tropical forcing driven Pacific improvements, with potentially some ephemeral help from the Atlantic. But I am not thinking a SSW is on the way for at least 14-17 days. We will see what things look like in a few days. Want to see how the wave driving progresses. But right now it is insufficient to induce anything more than a temporary off pole displacement, then subsequent reconsolidation at the pole. I do expect the realization of stronger wave-1 in early Feb which is why I am not asserting that chances are zero -- it may occur in early Feb; but it is too early to say right now.
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:20 pm

Frank your fb post says u have a video but there is no link.
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Isotherm on Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:26 pm

After examining the data this morning, the following looks reasonable to me:



1) The initial wave-1 assault on the stratospheric vortex Jan 22-24 will be insufficient in inducing an official warming event. Meridional heat flux and momentum flux becomes more zonal by D10, reflective of a slight decrease in tropospheric wave driving. However, as I have mentioned, the tropospheric precursor pattern will begin to strengthen the Aleutian stratospheric high once again, setting the stage for another increase in wave-1 amplitudes, probably to at least 1400 gpm at 10hpa by the very end of January. This will act to increase geopotential heights across Canada, North America, and the polar regions, with the vortex displaced off-pole. The question becomes, will the wave forcing be sufficiently potent to close the deal? Namely, a continued push of the vortex into Europe w/ a classic displacement event. This will aid in determining the longevity of the upcoming pattern.



2) MJO robust / coherent propagation through P1-2 (see WWB) will result in the lagged tropospheric result with the development of mean troughing in Nino-esque locations. The Aleutian trough and concomitant W Canadian / AK ridging will act contemporaneously with the displacement activity through the stratosphere to raise geopotential heights in the EPO/PNA domains.



3) The AO and NAO will remain largely positive through the beginning of February, reflective of the aforementioned circumstances.



4) The period of favorability should peak in the first 10-11 days of February as the MJO forcing impacts the troposphere, coupled with the stratospheric progression. In the first 10 days of February, a snowstorm is highly probable somewhere in the Eastern US.



5) Beyond February 10th-11th, there are two possible pathways. The low frequency / interseasonal Nina walker cell should return coincident with the decay of the MJO, possibly leading to a worsening of the Pacific pattern as we approach mid February. The question would then become - do we hand off favorability to the Atlantic? This will only be the case if wave driving is sufficiently strong to induce the full SSW in early February. Otherwise, the off-pole displacement will be subsequently be followed by reconsolidation of the vortex at the pol and lowering geopotential heights by week 3. The outcome of the stratosphere is indeterminate, but there will be enough displacement activity to produce a conducive regime for early Feb.



Conclusion: the largest window of opportunity of the winter thus far begins near the end of Jan, through the second week of Feb. The pattern may turn more unfavorable thereafter, but I cannot guarantee that right now.
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Re: End of January - Early February Pattern Change

Post by Armando Salvadore on Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:35 pm

Thanks Tom, great stuff. As many have mentioned, Feb really lies/depends upon what happens with the stratosphere. However, from what has been stated and alluded too by you, our most favorable window of opportunity comes between that aforementioned time period. To follow up your statement about insufficient heat flux, it appears the EPV aren't as poleward as shown a few days ago. However, that doesn't mean it'll affect the short-term implications from another wave forcing. We still will see more forcing by the end of month as that Aleutian high does strengthen. To what extent is in question. It really is a domino effect. If we can manage significant warming to the point of a complete split, we'll see the tropical forcing kick in big time as a cooler tropical troposhere/lower stratosphere becomes a favorable environment for the MJO to thrive in.
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