Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Personally, while I think the Euro is on track on the broad scale, I think it's misrepresenting the H5 low and resultant precipitation field.

There is a ton of vorticity that doesnt begin coming ashore for 48hrs. Long way to go.

Dos this have to possibility to be even more intense say sub 970mb? Giving us even more insane winds, and wouldnt that also bring in enough of its own cold air to bring snow right down to the coast or close?

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Personally, while I think the Euro is on track on the broad scale, I think it's misrepresenting the H5 low and resultant precipitation field.

There is a ton of vorticity that doesnt begin coming ashore for 48hrs. Long way to go.

Agreed lol I'm looking VERY forward the Euro Ensembles haha

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:31 pm

HOLY JMA

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:59 pm

Hmmm. The Euro. I have a weird feeling that this storm is going to underperform on all fronts, especially "winds"... imho...

The occluded point SROC mentioned is a concern.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:02 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm. The Euro. I have a weird feeling that this storm is going to underperform on all fronts, especially "winds"... imho...

To be honest, the wind aspect of this storm has been more consistent than the rain.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm. The Euro. I have a weird feeling that this storm is going to underperform on all fronts, especially "winds"... imho...

To be honest, the wind aspect of this storm has been more consistent than the rain.

ha that's I think the first time I've ever heard frank say that. Not that it will verify but I agree has been steadfast in the same realm for days.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:05 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm. The Euro. I have a weird feeling that this storm is going to underperform on all fronts, especially "winds"... imho...

The occluded point SROC mentioned is a concern.

Don't tell the Euro Control this lmfaooooo

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:HOLY JMA

and...come on what does it show lol

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:HOLY JMA
and...come on what does it show lol

Essentially, a repeat of the GFS, I think, but because it's a lower resolution it looks warm. Basically, if you're along and west of the Delaware you getting slam-canned with snow lol

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:12 pm

Umm Euro ensembles!!! Many snow to the coast. some serious hitters here.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:Umm Euro ensembles!!! Many snow to the coast. some serious hitters here.

WOW

by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:18 pm

Would you please post the New England view also?

by **Snow88** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:19 pm

12 eps members give NYC accumulating snow

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:20 pm

TheAresian wrote:Would you please post the New England view also?

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 7 Eps_snow_50_neng_25

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm. The Euro. I have a weird feeling that this storm is going to underperform on all fronts, especially "winds"... imho...

To be honest, the wind aspect of this storm has been more consistent than the rain.
ha that's I think the first time I've ever heard frank say that. Not that it will verify but I agree has been steadfast in the same realm for days.

But do we give the models credit for consistency if the final outcome is always consistently lower than what the models depict? You're always on top of the models when they show these kinds of crazy winds jman, so you know as well as anybody how they seem to show 40-60 mph winds in the lead up, only to back off to a more reasonable range like 25-40 when the storm hits.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Umm Euro ensembles!!! Many snow to the coast. some serious hitters here.

WOW

holy crap just saw both sets,18 give meaningfu snow down to coast and a few mom bets even near Godzilla down to nyc. Somewhat unexpected turn no I'm get even more excited. But I am go b in eastern ct till monday and even more members have tgat area get slammed so I'm torn to go.

by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:23 pm

Thank you. Looks like it's feast or famine for me.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:24 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm. The Euro. I have a weird feeling that this storm is going to underperform on all fronts, especially "winds"... imho...

To be honest, the wind aspect of this storm has been more consistent than the rain.
ehh just my bias to.one day have a wind storm actually verify as modeled lol but ur right.
ha that's I think the first time I've ever heard frank say that. Not that it will verify but I agree has been steadfast in the same realm for days.

But do we give the models credit for consistency if the final outcome is always consistently lower than what the models depict? You're always on top of the models when they show these kinds of crazy winds jman, so you know as well as anybody how they seem to show 40-60 mph winds in the lead up, only to back off to a more reasonable range like 25-40 when the storm hits.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:24 pm

If euro is right this could b a potential b word even to coast . Wouldn't thst b the bees knees lol

by **amugs** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:26 pm

WOW EPS Jesus some 970's in there holy crap !!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 7 Img_2062

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:31 pm

amugs wrote:WOW EPS Jesus some 970's in there holy crap !!

I think euro is leading the way on this one. And look most of the lp are in perfect position offshore for a big snowstorm. I'll caution though remember euro epic fail with Juno ugg

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:34 pm

amugs wrote:WOW EPS Jesus some 970's in there holy crap !!

Heavy northwest lean, though, with many near-stalls, which to me is a signal that H5 intensifying as it reaches the Delmarva is most likely not a fluke of a run. Especially when all three globals now agree on that. The stalls indicate the maturation and subsequent occlusion processes occurring while the H5 low is near the Delmarva, which is nearly prime-time. Exactly where that mid-level low tracks will be critical, and with seeing many members leaning roughly 75 miles or so off the Jersey coast as they nearly stall makes me fairly confident that's where H5 will be (as currently modeled, which can obviously change). As a result, based on only these runs today, if you're west of the Delaware, if everything stays as is, there would be significant CCB banding that would develop. Hence, my thought that the Operational's depiction of the precipitation field and H5 could be incorrect, seems to at the very least have merit.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:37 pm

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:WOW EPS Jesus some 970's in there holy crap !!

Heavy northwest lean, though, with many near-stalls, which to me is a signal that H5 intensifying as it reaches the Delmarva is most likely not a fluke of a run. Especially when all three globals now agree on that. The stalls indicate the maturation and subsequent occlusion processes occurring while the H5 low is near the Delmarva, which is nearly prime-time. Exactly where that mid-level low tracks will be critical, and with seeing many members leaning roughly 75 miles or so off the Jersey coast as they nearly stall makes me fairly confident that's where H5 will be (as currently modeled, which can obviously change). As a result, based on only these runs today, if you're west of the Delaware, if everything stays as is, there would be significant CCB banding that would develop. Hence, my thought that the Operational's depiction of the precipitation field, seems to at the very least have merit.

badically saying this may only b a minor rain event with the strong winds still out in front of it? I'm really hoping some of those EPS snow maps verify which would also suggest much higher qpf.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:WOW EPS Jesus some 970's in there holy crap !!

Heavy northwest lean, though, with many near-stalls, which to me is a signal that H5 intensifying as it reaches the Delmarva is most likely not a fluke of a run. Especially when all three globals now agree on that. The stalls indicate the maturation and subsequent occlusion processes occurring while the H5 low is near the Delmarva, which is nearly prime-time. Exactly where that mid-level low tracks will be critical, and with seeing many members leaning roughly 75 miles or so off the Jersey coast as they nearly stall makes me fairly confident that's where H5 will be (as currently modeled, which can obviously change). As a result, based on only these runs today, if you're west of the Delaware, if everything stays as is, there would be significant CCB banding that would develop. Hence, my thought that the Operational's depiction of the precipitation field, seems to at the very least have merit.
badically saying this may only b a minor rain event with the strong winds still out in front of it? I'm really hoping some of those EPS snow maps verify which would also suggest much higher qpf.

I don't think so because you'd have to get through the warm air addiction precipitation field first, before H5 even got up this far lol

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:41 pm

Put it this way, Jman: Does this look like something to sneeze at for an ensemble mean of total accumulated QPF for this period? lol

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 7 Screen55

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 7 Screen55

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:47 pm

I need to look at this system better when I have more time later tonight or tomorrow. Something still seems off to me. I don't exactly understand where the cold air is coming from.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:52 pm

God the SREF's are wet just with the WAA stuff, as is the NAM. Although the NAM is white for the north westerners lol

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