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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Snow88
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:WOW, GFS is nothing like Euro with the precip, ark is right RB! Gonna be a blast in the face with those winds.

50- 55 KNOTS map shows 60-65 but take that down a peg still madonne

I told folks at work to get ready

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:26 pm

925s sustained, wow... 55-65 kts sustained along coast, how much of that mixes down is anyones guess.


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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:32 pm

I cannot lie, that CCB band the 18z GFS has modeled I think is the sexiest one I've ever seen depicted this far out. If that verifies, some folks are gonna need more than a ruler to measure whatever comes out of it lmao That's amazing stuff right there.

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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:32 pm

we have not seen strong nor easter like this for a long time do u think we will have major coastal flooding for our area and will we see rain to snow for nyc and long island

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:35 pm

Jman, I think you were looking at the wrong map aha 2"+ region-wide almost from 84 south lol

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:36 pm

frank 638 wrote:we have not seen strong nor easter like this for a long time do  u think we will have major coastal flooding for our area and will we see rain to snow for nyc and long island
I think p-types are go be ironed out last min again maybe as well as winds, thoiugh clear signal I think we will see high wind warning criteria.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:Jman, I think you were looking at the wrong map aha 2"+ region-wide almost from 84 south lol
Not according to wxbell, maybe their maps are off? For me 1.2 around city, and thats hardly arc rain. BUT if we can get cold air in thats a godzilla : )
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:38 pm

is that 2 ft for rain or snow silent

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:38 pm

We may have a 2007 set up where a warm wedge aloft gets caught between teh layers and we get a massive sleet storm and mix with snow along the coastal plain and frickin YUGGE BLIZ inland. My weenie call!!!

ALL REMEBER GFS HAS A WARM BIAS!!!

Lets hope the NAM is right - showing 850's crash off the coast

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:38 pm

rb, qpf total def to the west 3 inches. And I compared to 12z, the snow backed further north west on 18z.


January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Gfs_tp10
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:39 pm

frank 638 wrote:we have not seen strong nor easter like this for a long time do  u think we will have major coastal flooding for our area and will we see rain to snow for nyc and long island

Sure we did!! Last year, silly!! And major? In a large majority of spots; no. Minor, with a few areas of moderate; most likely. I was looking at storm surge models before and they're only looking at about 3-4 feet for Monday so far, which might be forced a little higher by Tuesday. But Tuesday the wind starts coming more offshore through the day, so maybe add a foot, and that will probably be the absolute max surge, in my opinion. As for the p-types, not even worth worrying about yet at this point. Gotta get the pattern set before we can start figuring out the smaller scale details. That said, anything is possible.

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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:39 pm

thats what i am thinking we will see high winds warning and storm warning

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb, qpf total def to the west 3 inches. And I compared to 12z, the snow backed further north west on 18z.


January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Gfs_tp10

"ALMOST region-wide from 84 south" lol

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:43 pm

frank 638 wrote:thats what i am thinking  we will see high winds warning and storm warning

storm warning? Those are marine warnings, you mean winter storm warning? Thats possible though highly uncertain. I am not putting anything past this beast. Recall 23rd last yr...that was our blizzard : )
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:48 pm

frank 638 wrote:thats what i am thinking  we will see high winds warning and storm warning
I am concerned bc I am going to be in eastern CT near RI sunday night and prolly not getting on the road back here till 2 or 3pm Monday, would you guys advise against that? I am visiting a friend who is coming to visit from COlorado whom i have not seen in yrs.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:33 pm

And there you have it, guys. The final word. lol!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Img_2411
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:thats what i am thinking  we will see high winds warning and storm warning
I am concerned bc I am going to be in eastern CT near RI sunday night and prolly not getting on the road back here till 2 or 3pm Monday, would you guys advise against that?  I am visiting a friend who is coming to visit from COlorado whom i have not seen in yrs.

Your trip there should be ok, it's the return venture that could prove difficult. It looks like it would be a wet ride, but probably doable as long as you're not in a rush. I'm assuming you'd be around the I-95 corridor, though, and this is all assuming the current forecasts hold.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:And there you have it, guys. The final word. lol!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Img_2411

Oh god, COMMENCE THE MEDIA HYPE!!!

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:43 pm

I'm a visual guy; great post I just came across (@weatherman4300). Take a look at the Blizzard last year vs. the upcoming setup. We need that banana high back bigtime!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Img_2412
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:59 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm a visual guy; great post I just came across (@weatherman4300). Take a look at the Blizzard last year vs. the upcoming setup. We need that banana high back bigtime!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Img_2412
yeah doesn't look like that's happening. I do remember talking about that high setup.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:08 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm a visual guy; great post I just came across (@weatherman4300). Take a look at the Blizzard last year vs. the upcoming setup. We need that banana high back bigtime!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Img_2412

I strongly disagree that this is a "great post". No, we do not have a banana high over the top. However, the setup that produced that storm is completely different than the one that could produce this one, so to use that as an analog is pointless and completely incorrect, in my humble opinion.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm a visual guy; great post I just came across (@weatherman4300). Take a look at the Blizzard last year vs. the upcoming setup. We need that banana high back bigtime!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 9 Img_2412

I strongly disagree that this is a "great post". No, we do not have a banana high over the top. However, the setup that produced that storm is completely different than the one that could produce this one, so to use that as an analog is pointless and completely incorrect, in my humble opinion.

I agree this storm is different. Clearly lol. What I meant by "great" is seeing the stark difference IN setups; with the image on left, we'd have no concern of having ample cold air, like last year's blizzard.. With this upcoming setup, we will barely have any to work with (especially for coastal sections) in my opinion. It's amazing to see a strong storm signal but definitely not ideal for snow lovers without that strong high to the north.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:27 pm

so quiet on here
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:30 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here

I'm not likey what we are going to get along the coast winds and heavy rain coastal surge too Mad
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:31 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here

Your 1,000th post.

Let me be the first to congratulate you.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:33 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here
Waiting for the 0z suite. Nam leads off in 30 minutes.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:34 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here

Your 1,000th post.

Let me be the first to congratulate you.

Thanks CP...what's my prize a frankzilla???
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