January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Page 3 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:14 pm

Starting to give up on this one except for far Northwest areas. Frank is right we need an open low in the Gulf and close off as it comes up the coast. we have the opposite a closed low coming up the Appalachians and then opening up out over water. I'm with you James if this occurs as model now one of the worst winter events ever
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4277
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 55
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:36 pm

Still as frank said we track all storms. This one needs watching for big impacts not necessarily ones we want but nonetheless could cause major problems. Winds 39 to 73mph with higher gusts nothing joke bout and 3 to 5 inches rain.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Still as frank said we track all storms. This one needs watching for big impacts not necessarily ones we want but nonetheless could cause major problems. Winds 39 to 73mph with higher gusts nothing joke bout and 3 to 5 inches rain.

Correct Jman and can you image that over 16 hours of that happens. Then the white gold comes
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3632
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 39
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:48 pm

Yep not worried yet frank said in lr euro shows posdible roidzilla round 28th
I for one an excited bout both. Ya 16 hrs of winds like that dsyumm. Do u know what time frame the euro showed that?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:49 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Still as frank said we track all storms. This one needs watching for big impacts not necessarily ones we want but nonetheless could cause major problems. Winds 39 to 73mph with higher gusts nothing joke bout and 3 to 5 inches rain.

Correct Jman and can you image that over 16 hours of that happens. Then the white gold comes
the models have been steadfast on a powerful wind and rain storm. I'm thinking this may look even worse in next 2 days as we approach the 22nd 23rd. We will see.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:02 pm

So, the Jersey Shore looks like it's in the cross hairs for sure?

If you all lived in Coastal Ocean County (and those of you that do), when would you start making preparations?

Sandys flooding ruined homes and cars around here...any thoughts that this could happen next week?

Really appreciate ythe heads up on this one...I definitely want to be watching the 'chaos' from inside my home rather than from inside ShopRite!

SENJsnowman

Posts : 82
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 44
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:10 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:So, the Jersey Shore looks like it's in the cross hairs for sure?

If you all lived in Coastal Ocean County (and those of you that do), when would you start making preparations?

Sandys flooding ruined homes and cars around here...any thoughts that this could happen next week?

Really appreciate ythe heads up on this one...I definitely want to be  watching the 'chaos' from inside my home rather than from  inside ShopRite!

Tropical storm force winds coming off the ocean over a prolonged period of time will cause coastal flooding. To what extent, it's hard to say. I would use your best judgement / common sense to prepare for the worst. We still have MANY more model runs to go so lots can change, but the overall theme is VERY strong Sou'easter tracking north bringing heavy rain and high winds. The only thing a change in track will do is possibly lessen rainfall amounts or keep the worst of the winds off the coast (this is still possible)

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 16993
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:16 pm

Does this have the potential to b even worse than ts intensity? Or is that the cap u think frank. People this is not sandy. Not even close but do not take lightly either. Im.getting.my wxbell back this afternoon I wanna see the wind and rain maps for euro I hate keep asking ppl to post them. Usually I'm the map poster lol. Or do u suggest storm.Vista frank?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:32 pm

Ostro's excited...

avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1991
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:33 pm

WxBell is better.

UHMMM I think tropical storm force is most likely. Low-end hurricane force, especially for LI and Jersey Shore is also possible. Winds are not the easiest thing to forecast and may not be better understood until the weekend.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 16993
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:40 pm

Comparison to the great '92 Nor'easter as currently progged this is worse with the easterly fetch and longer duration of winds with a new moon. I have to say I lived through that and the coastal flooding was about 1/2 of Sandy at the shores and also the tributaries to teh Atlantic so this would be very serious.

And as Frank said this will set up the pattern going forward - end of week we start to track snow storms.
A cutter will help the straighten out Atlantic some what possibly minor or bigger - time will tell.



_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8360
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:44 pm

Thanks for the feedback. And I get that this is not Sandy from a meteorological standpoint. I'm trying to gauge what the on the ground consequences could be. For instance, once that first inch of flood water breaches the threshold, the damage is already catastrophic. Then, it does become 'Sandy like'. I think from that perspective, and given the discussion that has already happened here about the event, the comparison seems appropriate.

SENJsnowman

Posts : 82
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 44
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:52 pm

I may have to take it easy with the 'no snow' talk with this system. Decent amount of EPS members have significant snow for N&W.


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 16993
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:58 pm

12/25 members show a Godzilla for the Catskills and Adirondacks. 10/25 show one for the Utica area! The Aresian territory. For the rest of us a blizzard at 38 degrees. Minus the snow part
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2267
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:02 pm

Wow frank some even down to the coast. Yrs I understand for casting winds is hard till sr. Was merely asking what u thought was most likely. So high end ts if hurricane is posdible on islsnd. What u think for eastern ct sun into mon? Should I stay here or wait till it's closer to decide. I know often being closer to the bm and cape they can get worse winds and rain. Mugs flooding even half of sandy would b really bad.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:06 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Ostro's excited...

gd even at 850 look at that brown over area those are not gusts look bottom. with the heavy.precip high end ts seems likely if not higher. Trends any stronger we got a winter hirricane and this thing is bigger than sandy encompassing a huge part the us. Wow.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I may have to take it easy with the 'no snow' talk with this system. Decent amount of EPS members have significant snow for N&W.


I'll take case #18 please.
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1991
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by Grselig on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:14 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I may have to take it easy with the 'no snow' talk with this system. Decent amount of EPS members have significant snow for N&W.


I'll take case #18 please.
.

For some reason I thought u wrote 15 which is not bad either

18 as well!


Last edited by Grselig on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 612
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 47
Location : Wayne NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I may have to take it easy with the 'no snow' talk with this system. Decent amount of EPS members have significant snow for N&W.


I honestly cant believe you have been so anti snow. We have seen stranger things. A little better wave spacing and a 500mb closed low that closes a little later than forcasted and heads a little further S&E and there ya go. Def not impossible

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4750
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:17 pm

Grselig wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I may have to take it easy with the 'no snow' talk with this system. Decent amount of EPS members have significant snow for N&W.


I'll take case #18 please.

18 as well!
there's another 25 members frank can we see those too.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:20 pm

You all beat me to the punch. I was just about to type, "I'll have 18." lol. I will say this, putting aside the snow aspect, if this storm pans out the way some models project, it will be a big problem and one that we'll probably remember going forward. Several inches of rain and T.S. force winds are no joke. And we've had a fair amount of precipitation recently so flooding is a legit concern.
avatar
billg315
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1225
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 43
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I may have to take it easy with the 'no snow' talk with this system. Decent amount of EPS members have significant snow for N&W.


I honestly cant believe you have been so anti snow.  We have seen stranger things.  A little better wave spacing and a 500mb closed low that closes a little later than forcasted and heads a little further S&E and there ya go.  Def not impossible

Not even this is needed, Scott. Idk if you saw what I posted before, but take a look at H5 vorticity between the GFS and GEM from 12z runs today. Focus over New England. The GFS allows the piece diving down the eastern side of the Canadian block to just barely escape as the main closed low barrels northward up the coast. The GEM allows it to be captured, which is where the extra injection of cold air comes from. Between these two models, we're looking at differences that are on a magnitude significantly smaller than usual. Idk what the EURO looks like, though lol Been kinda busy today.

I'm not definitively saying that snow is in our futures, but just pointing out how the handling of that very minor detail will have wildly different implications on a sensible forecast for our region in this setup.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3593
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:37 pm

billg315 wrote:You all beat me to the punch. I was just about to type, "I'll have 18." lol. I will say this, putting aside the snow aspect, if this storm pans out the way some models project, it will be a big problem and one that we'll probably remember going forward. Several inches of rain and T.S. force winds are no joke. And we've had a fair amount of precipitation recently so flooding is a legit concern.
Not to mention easier for trees to uproot rather than snap. I'd prepare for the worst cuz I think either way snow or rain this WILL be high impact and as you said will be one to remember, but the Euro and CMC have been encouraging for N/W snow and some even to the coast.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13049
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:40 pm

billg315 wrote:You all beat me to the punch. I was just about to type, "I'll have 18." lol. I will say this, putting aside the snow aspect, if this storm pans out the way some models project, it will be a big problem and one that we'll probably remember going forward. Several inches of rain and T.S. force winds are no joke. And we've had a fair amount of precipitation recently so flooding is a legit concern.

This.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 16993
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:41 pm

Frank,
I have not looked deeply yest but things may swing to a Nor'easter as it pulls away by the loksnof this map for snow. Been crazy busy with end if semester at s hook grading and stuff. Just posting real quick on the euro run the bad boy cane about 100 miles south into NWNJ. 


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8360
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum