Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Guest]

Ironically when I golf and fish I am really calm and levelheaded. Doesn't fit the rest of my personality

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Very serious stuff Snowman, I moved the conversation to the OTI thread.

[Snow88]

The pattern looks great for a big storm. Something is going to give.

[track17]

Yes a big rain storm with these temps

[Snow88]

This GFS run is still not going to do it

Northern stream is just too quick for the southern stream

[Snow88]

Yes a big rain storm with these temps

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yes a big rain storm with these temps

he lives in Central Jersey near coast and has been scrooed with these last couple of events. Just whining and self pity which many of us have done in the past, however those comments should be put in banter.

[oldtimer]

Was getting freezing rain mixed with snow earlier Now went over mostly snow? 32*

[Snow88]

Yes a big rain storm with these temps

he lives in Central Jersey near coast and has been scrooed with these last couple of events. Just whining and self pity which many of us have done in the past, however those comments should be put in banter.

I feel bad for the people in the mid atlantic. They didn't even have a winter.

[skinsfan1177]

Yes a big rain storm with these temps

he lives in Central Jersey near coast and has been scrooed with these last couple of events. Just whining and self pity which many of us have done in the past, however those comments should be put in banter.

I feel bad for the people in the mid atlantic. They didn't even have a winter.

Honestly I'm not complaining how can I the past couple years we have over exceeded snowfall by a lot. This year I have got 10 inches from January storm and 3 inches from the last one. Yes dismal compared to years past but 18 is the average here and we have got that and then some every year at least the past 5

[Snow88]

GFS and GGEM improved for the Thursday's storm

Lets get this current storm out of the way and see what the models show for Thursday

Pattern supports a snow event

[algae888]

GFS and GGEM improved for the Thursday's storm

Lets get this current storm out of the way and see what the models show for Thursday

Pattern supports a snow event

yes snow cmc was very close looks good for eastern areas

[algae888]

cmc gives parts of area a few inches of snow wens...

[nutleyblizzard]

CMC getting closer to a major event for Thursday. More interaction with northern/southern streams. GFS had more interaction, but did not depict at the surface. Could be the progressive bias the GFS normally shows this far out. Let's hope for improvements with this afternoons EURO run. If this storm is going to happen with full fury, we need the southern jet to speed up, and or northern energy to slow down. Like I said earlier, I'll give till tomorrow nights 00z runs.

[Snow88]

End of February looks good for another storm on the GFS

[sroc4]

CMC getting closer to a major event for Thursday. More interaction with northern/southern streams. GFS had more interaction, but did not depict at the surface. Could be the progressive bias the GFS normally shows this far out. Let's hope for improvements with this afternoons EURO run. If this storm is going to happen with full fury, we need the southern jet to speed up, and or northern energy to slow down. Like I said earlier, I'll give till tomorrow nights 00z runs.

Yeah this threat is not dead yet at all.

[Isotherm]

My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows:



The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.

[Guest]

I'm confused a little. Weren't you and others very confident and optimistic for below avg temps and very wintry conditions from mid February through the end of the month early March or am I missing something. What has changed in the past week to change your thinking?

[Dunnzoo]

After grabbing my dictionary and translating, thanks for your thoughts! I am in awe of the intelligence of the young guns on here!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  After grabbing my dictionary and translating, thanks for your thoughts! I am in awe of the intelligence of the young guns on here!

It does blow me away at times. What a great group, and their long range accuracy is pretty damn good, not perfect, but this is not a perfect science and IMHO never can or will be.

[Joe Snow]

My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows:

 

The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.

What he just said.................

[Joe Snow]

My brain hurts after reading that, but in as much as I can understand, I would tend to agree. The overall pattern for this winter has been telling. However, some big snow storms have happen in March, eluding to your end of February/March scenario.

We shall see what happens with the next few storms.

[Armando Salvadore]

My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows:

 

The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.

Love these long rangers Tom. Did some analysis this morning and posted in my Facebook group and very similarly mentioned the exact entities. Great job as always. It appears we also see a jet retraction the week of the transpiring warm anomalies (19th-23rd), which in conjunction with the MJO propagation, makes sense. So a wave break seems apparent the last week of the month and we should see ridging impose back towards the western part of the Canadian Provinces and stretching towards Alaska (AKA -EPO). It's also why i remain skeptical of implementing a full blown early spring call anyway, because i also feel we've not seen the last of winter opportunities, especially if the MJO continues into the Eastern Hemisphere (phase 2/3) and its subsequent lagging effects. Regarding next week, right now, i'm leaning more to a miss given the overall state of things, however, in no way am i writing it off. Even with a full phase, we can still see something occur over the northeast even with some degree of interaction from the southern max. It's a shame too given this really could've been a very significant event timing could align itself, however, it's really the cyclical pattern we've been in since November and the recurring Rossby wave train. Another thing to note is, the 200 CHI appears to have also shifted away from the MC, indicating an alteration to the walker cell.

[frank 638]

Has anyone checked out AccuWeather spring outlook .they were saying for us spring will start off wet and chilly with rain and snow through mid march .after that they think any significant warmup Will probly hold off in late April or may .I don't know what to believe anymore

[jmanley32]

Euro was a complete miss for thurs. Is the threat dead now?

[skinsfan1177]

Euro was a complete miss for thurs. Is the threat dead now?

Imo it's dead for NYC south at least

[Radz]

Euro was a complete miss for thurs. Is the threat dead now?

Imo it's dead for NYC south at least

18Z GFS was much closer compared to last few days runs but a little too late for much more improvement i'm guessing

[Sponsored content]