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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:05 am

It does look like it wants to get colder after the March 5th-6th or so. Still a long ways off though...enjoy the mild and at times rainy weather until then.

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Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:35 am

Thanks Amugs, glad i joined this place, absolutely love it here! To add what Frank said, yeah just checked the 0z EPS/GEFS this morning. Still showing that NINA forcing depiction as we enter into early march, however, the troposphere reflects more of a relatively blocky pattern by the 8th or so with either the periphery of the mean trough bleeding east or a piece of it swings east. Its not too shabby of a setup, but i question the extent of the intensity of any arctic/cold airmass during the time period, especially how warm the great lakes are which moderate our air masses. One more shot at winter? Well, i think its legitimate. Until then, yeah enjoy the record high temps and very spring-esque period upcoming. Plains are getting a blizzard friday, lucky them haha. Severe weather risk Saturday for us as well.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2017 1:54 pm

GEFS barking at a big storm in LR- IF this were to occur what a turn of weather

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 F300

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:07 pm

Mugs the first time frame to watch is Monday into Tuesday as the gefs are very wet and temps should be cold enough for wintry precipitation especially away from the coast. Then the ridge builds back in for a few days before it gets colder with storm chances from around March 5th onward
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:53 pm

algae888 wrote:Mugs the first time frame to watch is Monday into Tuesday as the gefs are very wet and temps should be cold enough for wintry precipitation especially away from the coast. Then the ridge builds back in for a few days before it gets colder with storm chances from around March 5th onward
Yup, Al think we may have bookend storms mon Tues and them Friday ish and then again tuesdat/wedneadayish of the following week. Going to be activre after this week. 
Question becomes will the path of the MJO along with the SOI drop by enough to overcome this fierce jet extension and give us a couple of weeks or just a quick transient shot

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Post by Snow88 Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:35 pm

GFS has alot of energy during the 1st week of March. With a favorable MJO and possible blocking , WATCH OUT.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:40 pm

Tuesday could get interesting for our Northern Posters here peeps - ZCP, DOC, Aresian, Damian Dads 4 life?

EPS loving it and GFS is coming around

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 IMG_0614.thumb.PNG.04633cab83bade6544154329fcc52978

City North showing some wintry precip here

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 58adf549e8f7e

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:44 pm

Models are "percolating". I'm not overly excited about anything in particular just yet but with the Mjo running through cold phases over the next 10-14days I find it very hard to believe that we will escape without at least one snow event between the 28th-10th The only concern is that although we are going to see another strat warming the strat vortex looks to be on the wrong side of the northern hemisphere similar to nov and December. Hopefully the Mjo will still deliver. With the position of the strat less than ideal expect any cold and snow chance(s) to be followed by warmth.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:59 pm

Scott there isn plenty of cold air in Canada and the snowpack keeps getting deep from these clutter type storms. So this is NOT LIKE Nov at all imho but DEC mid.month I agree. Yes the dump looks to be askew again fornus but with this look on the gfs we are right there.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 IMG_1590.PNG.2d841a0f717399725f32175ec79fc4e9

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:23 am

amugs wrote:Scott there isn plenty of cold air in Canada and the snowpack keeps getting deep from these clutter type storms. So this is NOT LIKE Nov at all imho but DEC mid.month I agree. Yes the dump looks to be askew again fornus but with this look on the gfs we are right there.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 IMG_1590.PNG.2d841a0f717399725f32175ec79fc4e9

Do not mis-interpret what I'm saying. The positioning of the strat PV is "similar" to November December in that it remains on the other side of the hemisphere. Yes there is plenty of cold up into Canada now simply because of seasonally differences between Canada in Feb and Canada in November December. There has been almost an entire season to build up that snow pack. The problem with the strat on the wrong side of the hemisphere is that it prevents any sustained discharge of said cold Canadian air masses. The MJO has been running significantly through 8 and now 1 and eventually into 2&3, all cold phases throughout winter, yet we have been avg well above normal temps. Why? Because we have had this constant background La Niña state combined with less than ideal positioning and strength of the strat PV. So like November December although we look to get a weak PV it positioning will not help us sustain cold air masses into the region, BUT because there is a cold air source region not that far away if we get the pieces to come together they should have the cold air to the north to work with. Just don't expect sustained cold air.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:24 am

Mugs, I'll take a late season snow storm anytime. Surprisingly I still have some snow cover around the house...
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:05 am

ensembles are getting better and better esp. the nao as isotherm has been all over. can we get a sustained -nao? sure looks like it!
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_22
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59
also even though the ridge retro's west of epo region and there is a persistent trough over Alaska (usually means warm here) the pna goes pos and with shorter seasonal wave lengths starting a trough pops in the east. the atlantic looks great -nao, 50/50 low and pv pressing into Hudson bay. lets see if we can get one or two more snowfalls.
geps and eps agree
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gem-ens_z500a_nhem_57
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11
I feel fairly confident we will be tracking something by march first
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:06 am

sroc4 wrote:Honestly fellas if 1 and 2 on this map are correct then what we are likely to see, which has been consistent all reason, is that mean WC trough as currently being depicted will end up as two pieces.  Number 3 a piece breaks off and trys to push SE into the central CONUS and into the EC, and a smaller piece(number 4) holds back into the SW CONUS.  I alluded to this in my discussion above as well.  Once again it would likely be more of a transient cold pattern with the opportunity for a storm to develop along the frontal boundary.  Do we get a cutter, or a cutter followed by energy coming out of the SW developing along the front like the Feb9th system did??  I see several opportunities for this to happen.  If it works out or not we shall see.  I would also like to point out that the GEFS MJO forecasts have been slowly correcting towards the Euro so it makes sense to not buy any LR model solns right now esp on the GEFs

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-en10


I would like to update this prev discussion from the 18th.  Here is the latest GEFS as well as the EPS going towards my idea in and around the 2-5th time frame.     If you follow the next several days this trough quickly lifts out, but is followed by a second tough a few days later again going along as planned thus far. Does it deliver? Does it set us up for the time frame after this? No way to know yet, but you can see it evolving.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-en11
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Eps_z510

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:07 am

Great minds think alike Al. You beat me to it. We shall see. Still a long way out.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:09 am

I will say this the persistent W Candaian trough has been an achillies heal to the pattern on a big picture sense...(3A on the maps I posted above)...So we shall see if we can deliver.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:17 am

sroc4 wrote:I will say this the persistent W Candaian trough has been an achillies heal to the pattern on a big picture sense...(3A on the maps I posted above)...So we shall see if we can deliver.  
yea scott I agree however that trough retro's west over alaska over time and builds the pna ridge which along with the -nao will have a better result for us (eastern trough) with the shortening wave lengths this time of year. this could be our best pattern of the winter hopefully it last more than a few days which has not happened yet this winter.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:20 am

At least the models lost the lakes cutters
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:33 am

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36
from this time right through the end of the run storms will not cut. look at the trough over the south west if energy ejects out and hooks up with n/s energy we will have a major east coast storm.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65
end of run.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:37 am

algae888 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will say this the persistent W Candaian trough has been an achillies heal to the pattern on a big picture sense...(3A on the maps I posted above)...So we shall see if we can deliver.  
yea scott I agree however that trough retro's west over alaska over time and builds the pna ridge which along with the -nao will have a better result for us (eastern trough) with the shortening wave lengths this time of year. this could be our best pattern of the winter hopefully it last more than a few days which has not happened yet this winter.

Just remember what we are lookig at is the Ensembles. Just because it looks good now doesnt mean that the avg mean wont trend a diff way in tight. Keep in mind the Superbowl storm that wasnt. It was the retrograding west Canadian trough that led to a split flow. The N branch was too zonal and the N and S branch were unable to phase so the system didnt happen. That could happen in this set up as well. All we have now is a favorable trend. We need more to happen.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:38 am

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Scott there isn plenty of cold air in Canada and the snowpack keeps getting deep from these clutter type storms. So this is NOT LIKE Nov at all imho but DEC mid.month I agree. Yes the dump looks to be askew again fornus but with this look on the gfs we are right there.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 IMG_1590.PNG.2d841a0f717399725f32175ec79fc4e9

Do not mis-interpret what I'm saying. The positioning of the strat PV is "similar" to November December in that it remains on the other side of the hemisphere. Yes there is plenty of cold up into Canada now simply because of seasonally differences between Canada in Feb and Canada in November December. There has been almost an entire season to build up that snow pack. The problem with the strat on the wrong side of the hemisphere is that it prevents any sustained discharge of said cold Canadian air masses. The MJO has been running significantly through 8 and now 1 and eventually into 2&3, all cold phases throughout winter,  yet we have been avg well above normal temps. Why? Because we have had this constant background La Niña state combined with less than ideal positioning and strength of the strat PV.  So like November December although we look to get a weak PV it positioning will not help us sustain cold air masses into the region, BUT because there is a cold air source region not that far away if we get the pieces to come together they should have the cold air to the north to work with. Just don't expect sustained cold air.  

Well understood and I agree. I did misinterpret what you were saying - thought maybe a shot a zantrex for the pit bull got you instead - HAHAHA!

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:55 am

lol!

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Post by Armando Salvadore Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:38 am

Great thing about March is that, even with a +EPO, we're beginning to enter the seasonal trend where we see shortening of wavelengths. Brief spike the PNA, tropical convection propagating across eastern hemisphere and a +MT over next week supports a winter window between the 7th-13th or so. Definitely can buy a storm in that time period as well, ingredients are there for a big storm as well thanks to the baroclincity beginning to form between the south and north.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:50 am

Armando Salvadore wrote:Great thing about March is that, even with a +EPO, we're beginning to enter the seasonal trend where we see shortening of wavelengths. Brief spike the PNA, tropical convection propagating across eastern hemisphere and a +MT over next week supports a winter window between the 7th-13th or so. Definitely can buy a storm in that time period as well, ingredients are there for a big storm as well thanks to the baroclincity beginning to form between the south and north.

In NYC and the immediate surrounding areas March especially the first couple of weeks is still capable of significant 6+ and 10+ inch storms. After the spring equinox the chances drop dramatically in NYC but are still pretty numerous the further north and west you go from the city even into the first week of April. I had posted some of this on the stats page but it's relevant here as we move on in the season.

Begin Date........End Date.......10+ inch...6+ inch
January-24.........February-22...........28......68
January-31.........March-01...............26......70
February-07........March-08...............22......65
February-14........March-15...............15......48
February-21....... March-22.............. 11......40
February-28....... March-29................9......30
March-07........... April-05..................7......17
March-14........... April-12..................4......15
March-21........... April-19..................2........8
March-27........... April-25..................2........7
April-04............. May-03...................2........6
April-11............. May-10...................1........1


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:57 am; edited 3 times in total
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Post by Armando Salvadore Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:55 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Armando Salvadore wrote:Great thing about March is that, even with a +EPO, we're beginning to enter the seasonal trend where we see shortening of wavelengths. Brief spike the PNA, tropical convection propagating across eastern hemisphere and a +MT over next week supports a winter window between the 7th-13th or so. Definitely can buy a storm in that time period as well, ingredients are there for a big storm as well thanks to the baroclincity beginning to form between the south and north.

Begin Date..........End Date......10+ inch...6+ inch
January-17........February-15.......28......68
January-24........February-22.......28......68
January-31........March-01............26......70
February-07......March-08............22......65
February-14........March-15..............15......48
February-21....... March-22..............11......40
February-28....... March-29................9......30
March-07........... April-05..................7......17
March-14........... April-12..................4......15
March-21........... April-19..................2........8
March-27........... April-25..................2........7
April-04............. May-03...................2........6
April-11............. May-10...................1........1

Of course as you go North and West of NYC these periods start earlier and go later and decrease as you go south of the city.

Wow, good research. Pretty robust numbers. Could you show the analogs for these events? Seeing 1999 being thrown around quite a bit. Yeah, i don't think we escape March without some type of snow threat.
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Post by Isotherm Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:12 pm

Nothing has changed from my point of view. As expected, model data transitioning in accordance with global forcing mechanisms tropospherically and stratospherically. At least one more snow event is on the table for the first half of March as the first real neg NAO of the season initiates in several days.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:23 pm

Isotherm wrote:Nothing has changed from my point of view. As expected, model data transitioning in accordance with global forcing mechanisms tropospherically and stratospherically. At least one more snow event is on the table for the first half of March as the first real neg NAO of the season initiates in several days.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:11 pm


https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/834770015656230912/photo/1

Both SSW displacements events over the past month have/will feature fairly rapid downward propagation of circulation anomalies, as evidenced by PCH.

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