Long Range Thread 13.0
+42
Dtone
jimv45
2004blackwrx
lglickman1
aiannone
Vinnydula
Joe Snow
RJB8525
Radz
Quietace
docstox12
Fededle22
dsix85
track17
Dunnzoo
frank 638
SENJsnowman
dkodgis
essexcountypete
SoulSingMG
Grselig
Ronniek
hyde345
Snow88
SNOW MAN
nutleyblizzard
jake732
weatherwatchermom
Isotherm
rb924119
Armando Salvadore
algae888
devsman
jmanley32
Math23x7
billg315
Frank_Wx
skinsfan1177
CPcantmeasuresnow
amugs
sroc4
oldtimer
46 posters
Page 4 of 40
Page 4 of 40 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 22 ... 40
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Yep as we see a gradient setup with a NW flow imposed as heights build eastward, we see diving energy from the polar jet riding the boundary for the 1st-3rd event. I like this event and what it could produce. Frank i know you mentioned it back over a few days ago so nicely done. Have you seen the cmc and gfs hint at an ivt for around the 30th? Something to watch. As for the 5th-7th event, which seems most inclusive in regards to its bigger potential, its all going to come down to the position of the TPV. Think we have it in our favor at the time. We shall see! Regardless, we finally can now enter back into a winter regime!
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 171
Join date : 2016-12-23
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
euro looks to be on board also...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Euro looks nice surface 10 day 2 to 6 area wide maybe more. I can't complain at this point. Of course hoping for more but it's Def look decent al.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Armando Salvadore wrote:Yep as we see a gradient setup with a NW flow imposed as heights build eastward, we see diving energy from the polar jet riding the boundary for the 1st-3rd event. I like this event and what it could produce. Frank i know you mentioned it back over a few days ago so nicely done. Have you seen the cmc and gfs hint at an ivt for around the 30th? Something to watch. As for the 5th-7th event, which seems most inclusive in regards to its bigger potential, its all going to come down to the position of the TPV. Think we have it in our favor at the time. We shall see! Regardless, we finally can now enter back into a winter regime!
Yes, I've been talking about the IVT (check the homepage) but my confidence is very low for it. I think the trough may go negative too late to benefit us. Plus it's a progressive flow.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
6zGFS trended stronger/colder for the February 6th event. Potential is most definitely there.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:
6zGFS trended stronger/colder for the February 6th event. Potential is most definitely there.
Sure did
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Few chances of snow coming up with multiple waves. A lot of model watching coming up the next 2 weeks.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Start and PV Displacement happening over our heads, how long will it last? Usually a 2 weeks time frame hopefully we can get some help to extend this.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
looks like a mothrazilla at least very nice. Let's hope.skinsfan1177 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:
6zGFS trended stronger/colder for the February 6th event. Potential is most definitely there.
Sure did
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
finally some snow to track. should be fun 2 weeks or so. eye obviously on the feb 5th
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Check out the beast offshore on 11th or so on 06z gfs.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:Check out the beast offshore on 11th or so on 06z gfs.
waaaaayyyy to far out for me to even look
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Some light snow on the CMC for Monday
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run.rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run.rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
I like where the GFS is. Weak low off the coast.
CMC is an inland runner.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
complete miss at surface how is 500mb?rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
we have plenty of time to fix things
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
GFS looked confused on that run because it kept sending short waves and spokes of vorticity across the CONUS, and didn't look like it know what to do with them all; didn't know which one to focus on. The CMC seemed much more reasonable to me at H5, although even that appeared a bit suspect to me as it entered the West. Can't look deeply right now, but it might be doing something wonky out in the East-Pac.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
To be honest, like Frank I'm very excited for that time period. With multiple vorts on the map, models are having issues with which one to key on. We need to try not to model hump on every run this far out.Snow88 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run.rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
I like where the GFS is. Weak low off the coast.
CMC is an inland runner.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:To be honest, like Frank I'm very excited for that time period. With multiple vorts on the map, models are having issues with which one to key on. We need to try not to model hump on every run this far out.Snow88 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run.rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
I like where the GFS is. Weak low off the coast.
CMC is an inland runner.
Agreed!! Ensembles and intuition
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
EURO EPS says cold from the elongated STrat Polar Vortex
These are 850 maps but translated to cold below
Nice warmth is AK
days 6-10 cold
These are 850 maps but translated to cold below
Nice warmth is AK
days 6-10 cold
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
All global operationals are pretty useless beyond 5 days and the GFS in general has been awful lately. I don't trust it as far as I can throw it.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
rb924119 wrote:GFS looked confused on that run because it kept sending short waves and spokes of vorticity across the CONUS, and didn't look like it know what to do with them all; didn't know which one to focus on. The CMC seemed much more reasonable to me at H5, although even that appeared a bit suspect to me as it entered the West. Can't look deeply right now, but it might be doing something wonky out in the East-Pac.
There seems to be a little bit of a war regarding the proggression of the MJO from the GEFs vs the rest really. Regarding the 5th-7th system the CMC cutting unfort fits if the European, along with most of the other models (Ukie, CMC, Japanese) MJO progression holds true. The GEFS led the way with the current progression of 8-1-2, and the euro played catch up with it. We shall see/hope this is the case once again.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
From two mets about the MJO
The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.
I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.
The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.
I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
amugs wrote:From two mets about the MJO
The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.
I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.
This as much of an educated guess as any Mugs. Even still a compromise still has our MJO come out in late 5-6 which may still allow our SE ridge to flex if the -EPO/-WPO arctic blocking regime is over modeled at all, and or axis is shifted west. After all this entire winter we have been under the background influence of La Nina forcings. So if other pattern enhancers do not end up being as strong as originally thought then that SE ridge pops back up. There are no gaurantees either way at this stage. It is encouraging words though from JM
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:From two mets about the MJO
The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.
I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.
This as much of an educated guess as any Mugs. Even still a compromise still has our MJO come out in late 5-6 which may still allow our SE ridge to flex if the -EPO/-WPO arctic blocking regime is over modeled at all, and or axis is shifted west. After all this entire winter we have been under the background influence of La Nina forcings. So if other pattern enhancers do not end up being as strong as originally thought then that SE ridge pops back up. There are no guarantees either way at this stage. It is encouraging words though from JM
Scott this guy is phenomenal with this as a LR forecaster like Tom (Isotherm) Frank, you, Armando etc. here.
We have been discussing that the models have not been or lagging big time with teh MJO pulse/trop forcing. He loves the time frame from now until Feb 12thish-14th. We shall see but at least we have something in the works.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Page 4 of 40 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 22 ... 40
Page 4 of 40
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|