NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 13.0

+42
Dtone
jimv45
2004blackwrx
lglickman1
aiannone
Vinnydula
Joe Snow
RJB8525
Radz
Quietace
docstox12
Fededle22
dsix85
track17
Dunnzoo
frank 638
SENJsnowman
dkodgis
essexcountypete
SoulSingMG
Grselig
Ronniek
hyde345
Snow88
SNOW MAN
nutleyblizzard
jake732
weatherwatchermom
Isotherm
rb924119
Armando Salvadore
algae888
devsman
jmanley32
Math23x7
billg315
Frank_Wx
skinsfan1177
CPcantmeasuresnow
amugs
sroc4
oldtimer
46 posters

Page 36 of 40 Previous  1 ... 19 ... 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:29 am

Let's hope for a big storm on Tuesday the 14tg. The scientific reason why I think this one has a legit shot is that the 14th is the birthday of the guy who has proclaimed himself to live in the snow capital of this forum

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:03 pm

cmc has a monster storm early next week, we get 6 to 12 and aresian gets 12-18!

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:24 pm

It looks nice now, but if there's one thing I've learned here it's that so much can change in 7 days that it is too far out to get excited about.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:02 pm

....yeah no crap Aresian. 3 days ago we were looking at 30-40" area wide this weekend. Now look. Almost nothing 3 days later. In my 5 years on this forum this has been the worst winter for long range forecasting

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:50 pm

EPS Ensembles aren't even giving wave 2 a thought, but the mean is very impressive for wave 3.  Still a decent spread though. A long way to go.  

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Eps_sl10
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Eps_sl11
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Eps_sl12
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Eps_sl13

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:10 pm

Syosnow - frankly, if you listened to the right people, it was well forecasted.

The blocking continues to correct longer duration over the DS, and the improvement with wave 3 on the euro ensembles is a function of that (in addition to increased geopotential height rises upstream: a function of the regressing BC vortex lobe). Makes sense given what's transpiring stratospherically, TF, and AAM removal.

As I have stated numerous times at this point, we won't be leaving the pattern without at least one snow event.

Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 231
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 33
Location : Monmouth County, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:20 pm

12z EPS has 5 waves to watch

LOL
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by frank 638 Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:31 pm

Next Tues is the anniversary of the super storm of 93 what will next week storm will bring us ?? And does anyone remember that storm .

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Tue Mar 07, 2017 5:24 pm

frank 638 wrote:Next Tues is the anniversary of the super storm of 93 what will next week storm will bring us ?? And does anyone remember that storm .

.....and my 45th Bday so your answer is a blizzard.!!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by algae888 Tue Mar 07, 2017 5:37 pm

The GFS blows up the Tuesday storm into a massive Coastal storm. Affects almost the entire area but Long Island is the jackpot with over a foot.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:43 pm

The 18z GFS is pure eye candy for next week, has penty of time to trend a bit more NW and we will be looking at minimum a godzilla, maybe roidzilla, and looks to have intensity to have a chance at even higher, but its one run, but EPS also showing a coastal. Forget sunday I think this is honing in on a bigger potential and the spacing is good too Fri then Tues//wed.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:47 pm

Wow, easily can come more west, even with this we still see a measurable snow and LI jackpots, syo no complaining for you or its off to OTI with no visa LOL, this could also generate some SERIOUS wind with it if it gets a bit closer, lets see what future runs do over the next 5 days or so.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Gfs_ms10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:59 pm

Isotherm wrote:Syosnow - frankly, if you listened to the right people, it was well forecasted.

The blocking continues to correct longer duration over the DS, and the improvement with wave 3 on the euro ensembles is a function of that (in addition to increased geopotential height rises upstream: a function of the regressing BC vortex lobe). Makes sense given what's transpiring stratospherically, TF, and AAM removal.

As I have stated numerous times at this point, we won't be leaving the pattern without at least one snow event.

Tom, You called this a month ago if nmot longer and a HUGE NOD to you again. Patience is teh key andlet teh pattern evolve as I have learned from you and others in such.

Now back to teh GEFS which are showing a YUUGGGEEE hit for next Wednesday - soem indies are monsters..... Wish it was Monday next week not Tues this week!!
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 58bf3d5da7f46

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:05 pm

Anyone have the individual ensemble snow maps for GFS? RB? You posted them last.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:00 am

Next Tuesday could be a doozy

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 IMG_1428.GIF.32b406ceb7de4287cb6f1df1667ffe2f

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:19 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Next Tuesday could be a doozy

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 IMG_1428.GIF.32b406ceb7de4287cb6f1df1667ffe2f

Frank, do you think this will be a sizable storm for the North and West areas or will it be more for the South and eastern areas. I know it's early, but I'd like to hear what your thought's are. Thanks.
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1361
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 64
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by devsman Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:42 am

That storm would be the benchmark of march storms. 30 + for a lot of people
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 48
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:49 am

What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:05 am

6 Z Gfs just shows an absolute BOMBBBB NEXT WEEK!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:06 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Gfs_asnow_neus_41

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:19 am

Check out gfs para 40 plus over central pa holy crap still 18 to 24 for us. Trying to temper myself but this is like relapse from having no snow just starting to get over it then bsm models go crazy for next week. After reading about the bluzzard of 1993 this wpuld tromp snow totals from that storm in a lot of ny areas and winds look like they could easily top 50 to 60 mph. Wpuld this b a heavy wet snow? If so that would add a even worse component.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:21 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Radz Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:20 am

Just saw Bill Evans 7 day with "A little rain 42°" on Tuesday next week lol
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1027
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:22 am

Radz wrote:Just saw Bill Evans 7 day with "A little rain 42°" on Tuesday next week lol
yep everything says similar right now. Not gonna show a blizzard 5 plus days out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:24 am

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
my only worry is sp did euro for Sunday then poof. Does this one have a much more promising setup with less room for suppression or other problems to arise?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Radz Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:29 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Radz wrote:Just saw Bill Evans 7 day with "A little rain 42°" on Tuesday next week lol
yep everything says similar right now. Not gonna show a blizzard 5 plus days out.

But i do like Frank's banner!
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1027
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:33 am

Oh yes and ur wind man just checked surface winds my god at a time sustained winds for li hit 52kts! Even into city 20 to 30 kts. That's epic coupled with the snow and dangerpus if we're to.plsy out for get 50 to 60 mph gust try more like 75 or higher especislly on LI again verbatim on thst run. Not saying it would happen.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
my only worry is sp did euro for Sunday then poof. Does this one have a much more promising setup with less room for suppression or other problems to arise?

AS progged now and no reason for concern just watch - block weakens a bit or retrogresses allowing this is slide up the coast witha pna spike to help as progged.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 36 of 40 Previous  1 ... 19 ... 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum