Long Range Thread 13.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Let's hope for a big storm on Tuesday the 14tg. The scientific reason why I think this one has a legit shot is that the 14th is the birthday of the guy who has proclaimed himself to live in the snow capital of this forum
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
cmc has a monster storm early next week, we get 6 to 12 and aresian gets 12-18!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
It looks nice now, but if there's one thing I've learned here it's that so much can change in 7 days that it is too far out to get excited about.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
....yeah no crap Aresian. 3 days ago we were looking at 30-40" area wide this weekend. Now look. Almost nothing 3 days later. In my 5 years on this forum this has been the worst winter for long range forecasting
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
EPS Ensembles aren't even giving wave 2 a thought, but the mean is very impressive for wave 3. Still a decent spread though. A long way to go.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Syosnow - frankly, if you listened to the right people, it was well forecasted.
The blocking continues to correct longer duration over the DS, and the improvement with wave 3 on the euro ensembles is a function of that (in addition to increased geopotential height rises upstream: a function of the regressing BC vortex lobe). Makes sense given what's transpiring stratospherically, TF, and AAM removal.
As I have stated numerous times at this point, we won't be leaving the pattern without at least one snow event.
The blocking continues to correct longer duration over the DS, and the improvement with wave 3 on the euro ensembles is a function of that (in addition to increased geopotential height rises upstream: a function of the regressing BC vortex lobe). Makes sense given what's transpiring stratospherically, TF, and AAM removal.
As I have stated numerous times at this point, we won't be leaving the pattern without at least one snow event.
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
12z EPS has 5 waves to watch
LOL
LOL
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Next Tues is the anniversary of the super storm of 93 what will next week storm will bring us ?? And does anyone remember that storm .
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
frank 638 wrote:Next Tues is the anniversary of the super storm of 93 what will next week storm will bring us ?? And does anyone remember that storm .
.....and my 45th Bday so your answer is a blizzard.!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
The GFS blows up the Tuesday storm into a massive Coastal storm. Affects almost the entire area but Long Island is the jackpot with over a foot.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
The 18z GFS is pure eye candy for next week, has penty of time to trend a bit more NW and we will be looking at minimum a godzilla, maybe roidzilla, and looks to have intensity to have a chance at even higher, but its one run, but EPS also showing a coastal. Forget sunday I think this is honing in on a bigger potential and the spacing is good too Fri then Tues//wed.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Wow, easily can come more west, even with this we still see a measurable snow and LI jackpots, syo no complaining for you or its off to OTI with no visa LOL, this could also generate some SERIOUS wind with it if it gets a bit closer, lets see what future runs do over the next 5 days or so.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Isotherm wrote:Syosnow - frankly, if you listened to the right people, it was well forecasted.
The blocking continues to correct longer duration over the DS, and the improvement with wave 3 on the euro ensembles is a function of that (in addition to increased geopotential height rises upstream: a function of the regressing BC vortex lobe). Makes sense given what's transpiring stratospherically, TF, and AAM removal.
As I have stated numerous times at this point, we won't be leaving the pattern without at least one snow event.
Tom, You called this a month ago if nmot longer and a HUGE NOD to you again. Patience is teh key andlet teh pattern evolve as I have learned from you and others in such.
Now back to teh GEFS which are showing a YUUGGGEEE hit for next Wednesday - soem indies are monsters..... Wish it was Monday next week not Tues this week!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Anyone have the individual ensemble snow maps for GFS? RB? You posted them last.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Next Tuesday could be a doozy
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Next Tuesday could be a doozy
Frank, do you think this will be a sizable storm for the North and West areas or will it be more for the South and eastern areas. I know it's early, but I'd like to hear what your thought's are. Thanks.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
That storm would be the benchmark of march storms. 30 + for a lot of people
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
6 Z Gfs just shows an absolute BOMBBBB NEXT WEEK!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Check out gfs para 40 plus over central pa holy crap still 18 to 24 for us. Trying to temper myself but this is like relapse from having no snow just starting to get over it then bsm models go crazy for next week. After reading about the bluzzard of 1993 this wpuld tromp snow totals from that storm in a lot of ny areas and winds look like they could easily top 50 to 60 mph. Wpuld this b a heavy wet snow? If so that would add a even worse component.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:21 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Just saw Bill Evans 7 day with "A little rain 42°" on Tuesday next week lol
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
yep everything says similar right now. Not gonna show a blizzard 5 plus days out.Radz wrote:Just saw Bill Evans 7 day with "A little rain 42°" on Tuesday next week lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
my only worry is sp did euro for Sunday then poof. Does this one have a much more promising setup with less room for suppression or other problems to arise?amugs wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:yep everything says similar right now. Not gonna show a blizzard 5 plus days out.Radz wrote:Just saw Bill Evans 7 day with "A little rain 42°" on Tuesday next week lol
But i do like Frank's banner!
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Oh yes and ur wind man just checked surface winds my god at a time sustained winds for li hit 52kts! Even into city 20 to 30 kts. That's epic coupled with the snow and dangerpus if we're to.plsy out for get 50 to 60 mph gust try more like 75 or higher especislly on LI again verbatim on thst run. Not saying it would happen.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:my only worry is sp did euro for Sunday then poof. Does this one have a much more promising setup with less room for suppression or other problems to arise?amugs wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
AS progged now and no reason for concern just watch - block weakens a bit or retrogresses allowing this is slide up the coast witha pna spike to help as progged.
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