February 2017 Observations & Discussions

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:27 am

Looks like a 3-4pm start time with the rain. Could get into the 70s again today before the front comes through

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:04 am

Probably will see some strong winds at and behind the front. Best chances always west of hudson. Some could b locally damaging per nws. Overall doesn't look like gr8 day so far cloudy and samp.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:18 am


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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:28 am

Really liking how this case study is coming along.....hopefully you guys enjoy it. Will likely be posted by this afternoon.

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:24 am

56 warm humid muggy morning yuck where is winter

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:52 am

frank 638 wrote:56 warm humid muggy morning yuck where is winter

In the last 20 months we have had absurd record warm spells, this latest one ranks there among the worst. Will it ever in my lifetime revert back? I'm starting to wonder.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:42 am

71 degrees.Insanity and madness reigns.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:09 pm

Sometimes I need a reminder that cold air does still exist in our world, although it is getting harder to find.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/vyerkhoyansk/295218/month/295218?view=table
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:36 pm

Alot of sun now helping give us another warmer than forecast day, 64* now, mostly sunny.
dew point 58.

Here's what greeted me this Feb morning




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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:48 pm

Dtone wrote:Alot of sun now helping give us another warmer than forecast day, 64* now, mostly sunny.
dew point 58.

Here's what greeted me this Feb morning




Only to be killed off by a sharp freeze within the next two months, much like how the bloom last year was killed off by the sub-freezing April temperatures which lasted about a week.

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:48 pm

Dtone wrote:Alot of sun now helping give us another warmer than forecast day, 64* now, mostly sunny.
dew point 58.

Here's what greeted me this Feb morning




OK, now THAT"S an example of climate change.Be it man made, natural or whatever, my mind cannot fathom why.However, pictures like these, which normally you see in Mid to Late April and sometimes Early May in very cool springs. are UTTERLY ridiculous on Feb 25th.


Last edited by docstox12 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:52 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
Dtone wrote:Alot of sun now helping give us another warmer than forecast day, 64* now, mostly sunny.
dew point 58.

Here's what greeted me this Feb morning




Only to be killed off by a sharp freeze within the next two months, much like how the bloom last year was killed off by the sub-freezing April temperatures which lasted about a week.

Spot on Mikey!

I remember a year in Mahwah NJ when I had my vegetable garden.The last day for a possible frost was around May 20th.I was a wiseass that year and decided to plant my tomato plants on May 15th.Sure enough, a frost warning was issued and I had to put cups and cans and pots over the plants to keep the frost off.This early blooming will result in bad things should we get some nights below freezing.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:33 pm

Tornado warning just gone up for Scranton Pennsylvania and Lanchester pa also cities in stone March in the sack for South Pennsylvania and South New Jersey crazy weather wow

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:44 pm

Wow numerous svr tstorm warnings over PA and two tornado warnings, this line is coming in HOT, stronger than anticipated I think. Sun is just coming out here now, I feel like its summer talking about destabilizing atmosphere, i keep forgetting its freaking feb. lol
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:46 pm

Wow all the svr warnins are winds 60-70mph and hail as big as golf ball sized!
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:50 pm

Severe thunderstorm watch up for all of NJ and norith of NYC, seems upton wants no part LOL, but adjacent counties are under, sharp cutoff.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:52 pm

Do u think the storms will survive to the coast

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:52 pm

This just doesnt make sense to me

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:53 pm

frank 638 wrote:Do u think the storms will  survive to the coast
Depends how quick they are to move and if they can hold up over the mountains which they appear to be doing, if its near or after dark less likely, I think coast does see t-storms, severe or not.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:56 pm

Its the middle if Feb we are tracking thunderstorms and tornados lol why can't this be winter storm warnings and blizzard warning just why facepalm

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:03 pm

frank 638 wrote:Its the middle if Feb we are tracking thunderstorms and tornados lol why can't this be winter storm warnings and blizzard warning just why facepalm
I hear ya, there is plenty of time over summer for severe wx.
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:This just doesnt make sense to me


I'm thinking ocean influence will keep storms below severe levels.
It did warm up a little more than forecasted around NYC but it's still not as warm as widespread 70s just to the west

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:19 pm

Not expecting severe weather here. Maybe strong storms.

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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Vinnydula on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:25 pm

I never seen clouds move north west
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Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:33 pm

I'm just going to put this here ladies and gents:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMWJFWFNuTFJ3dk0

Just a video presenting a case study that I did this morning regarding the anomalous nature of this February in a historical context. I tried to keep it as objective as possible, and leave any "arguments" out of it, but there was a little bit of a stance inferred I guess. At any rate, I wasn't quite expecting the results I got, mainly, the distribution of anomalously warm Februaries. I also did include analysis of the cold side of things as well, but felt no need to include them in the discussion because they had little bearing on the topic at hand. However, those results DO show conclusive evidence that statistically significant colder Februaries and winters did occur largely prior to 1980, and if you would like I can post them too to further discussion. For reference, please also look at the closest analog that I was able to dig up (so far) for this season (December-January) compared to this season below:



I did not go into any analysis regarding the setups of any of these seasons, as that would have required a much longer presentation haha Anyway, I hope you enjoy it and at least find it as partially interesting as I did!!


Last edited by rb924119 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:37 pm; edited 1 time in total

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