Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:44 am

Good Morning,

Happy Game Day! I would love to see the Falcons win this one, but Tom Brady is quite the machine so I have a feeling it'll go to the Patriots. Should be a good game, enjoy!

So I had this elaborate write-up outlining Thursday's storm potential, but I accidentally closed my Chrome and lost the content. I'll keep this brief.





The EURO shows a weak low pressure well south of Long Island on Thursday morning. The differences between the EURO and GFS at the 500mb level is pretty widespread. As you see on these maps, the EURO involves a piece of energy that broke off the Polar Vortex and tries to phase it with the southern energy. However, the western ridge is modeled to collapse so the trough axis gets shunted east and deters amplification.



The GFS on the other hand has an all-out snowstorm. A Mothrazilla. This model has much stronger Pacific energy entering the country which keeps heights along the east coast higher compared to the EURO. The Baroclinic Zone on the GFS is already over our area on Wednesday, while on the EURO it's well south because the Pacific energy is too weak in the center of the country. There is also a front coming through on Wednesday which is bringing us rain. A weaker front would help keep the Baroclinic Zone over our area, as opposed to sending it south and east of us.

Moral of the story is, sampling of this Pacific energy will not be understood on the models until Tuesday. The GFS actually shows 2 separate pieces of Pacific energy which kinda feed off each other in developing a weak low off our area. There's a few combinations we can actually get it to snow pretty significantly here, which is pretty good because normally there is just one scenario. We can either rely on the various vorts coming out of the Pacific, or perhaps involve the Polar energy in some capacity.

I think we need to give this another 48 hours so we can see if models come to consensus on how they want to handle the 500mb level. Timing would be early Thursday morning. Potential is there for 6"+, but the lack of blocking and collapsing western ridge are large enough risks to not make this storm happen at all.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Snow88 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:51 am

Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by sroc4 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:19 am

Perfectly stated

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:36 am

Thank you Frank for the write up...one can only hope for a bit of good weather news!! I am sorry to hear your first draft was lost Sad I hope you have a wonderful Sunday and here's to good sampling on Tuesday!!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Armando Salvadore on Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:37 am

Awesome post Frank, always right on the money when it comes to these systems. This could work, one major thing that we'll at least have is a fresh injection behind Wednesday's polar s/w event. Also, 50's tuesday and maybe touching 60 wednesday? Well, we'll see! Anyway, we've seen this before with that ridge collapsing, and also, we're going to be coming off a jet extension. So, basically, it comes down to timing as well. Do we get enough of a window to allow heights build so we can get some digging and rounding the bend? I like the chance at least!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Armando Salvadore on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:05 am

Now that is a favorable upper level jet streak! Trended stronger compared to 6z. Now, i know it's still Sunday and early, but this is actually not in a 10 day timeframe. Ridge axis is actually better too. We may just get the perfect timing.



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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jake732 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:15 am

isnt the storm much weaker on the 12z?
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:50 am

Heights flatten out west and the Pacific energy is less potent on the 12z GFS. Still manages 3-5" this run.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:58 am

Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.

It looks like crap on today's GFS.

The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.

So...keep your hope DOWN.

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.

It looks like crap on today's GFS.

The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.

So...keep your hope DOWN.
been the state of most of this winter i think.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:08 pm

GFS Ensembles look really good. Must be some heavy hitters.


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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:12 pm

Thank for teh write up Frank and we shall see - wish this was 24hrs out instead of 100 hours.
GEFS are harping on the multiple wave train so we shall see. I will get excited come Tuesday afternoon 12z and then more 0Z night.


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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by sroc4 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS Ensembles look really good. Must be some heavy hitters.


This looks pretty darn good for HR 90




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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:32 pm

Need that cutter storm to be weaker so we dont push the baroclinic zone to far s & e or else you know the ramifications of this board. cherry bom

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Snow88 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.

It looks like crap on today's GFS.

The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.

So...keep your hope DOWN.

Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jake732 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:01 pm

hello.....any update on the euro?? doesnt sound to good from the silence?
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jrollins628 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:20 pm

It's still there just weeker!!!!

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:44 pm

Keep expectations in check 1-2/ 2--4 type
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:18 pm

Skins brother I hope you enjoy the Super Bowl. My expectations are if we get 1-3" or 2-4" no thank you. By the way NWS has our area for 45 and rain next weekend
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by billg315 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:52 pm

Frank's "Snow Confidence Level" at the moment, does not inspire confidence in this storm.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:58 pm

HUMINA HUMINA - PLEASE COME TO FRUITION MADONNE!!



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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:01 pm




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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:02 pm

STUPID GFS SUCKS YOU RIGHT BACK IN WITH THIS 0Z RUN!!

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:03 pm

Arctic air drops in behind it

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jrollins628 on Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:16 pm

Let us know about the CMC

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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