Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

by **essexcountypete** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Worst case scenario map from NWS

I am always trying to find this where is the link?

For Upton:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Mt Holly:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

by **jake732** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:17 pm

Frank, many times systems go south but with the North trend do you see that it can flip going south?

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:18 pm

Well I just need this about 25 to 30 miles south on the NAM to get me around 10 inches and ill be happy and north folks still see more.

by **Frank_Wx** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:18 pm

NAM soundings and instability levels show 3 inch per hour snowfall rates. This could be a February 2011 type of storm but not expecting those type of snowfall amounts...yet.

NAM PARA

by **Frank_Wx** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:20 pm

jake732 wrote:Frank, many times systems go south but with the North trend do you see that it can flip going south?

Too early to say. I favor EURO/NAM blend.

jmanley32 wrote:Well I just need this about 25 to 30 miles south on the NAM to get me around 10 inches and ill be happy and north folks still see more.

Dont think I ever commented on your avatar. It's great.

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:20 pm

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

jmanley32 wrote:Jeeze theres snow 970s in there!

I'm crying.

Frank crying out of happiness or is that not good? Only issue to replying to all our posts is we can't reply to just your reply to us.

by **Frank_Wx** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:24 pm

You can edit that by deleting the other posts within the quote bracket. And crying of happiness. If this goes sub 990mb it will be a Godzilla.

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:You can edit that by deleting the other posts within the quote bracket. And crying of happiness. If this goes sub 990mb it will be a Godzilla.

Thanks for the note on the avatar, lol googled weather weenie and a lot popped up, i thought this was funniest. Wow, so this does have some godzilla potential, but even if not 3 inche per hr snow rates i don't remember seeing that recently, I gotcha for future replies to those long posts.

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:27 pm

What Feb 2011 storm, that was the winter of all winters, how much did we get? Better yet does anyone have the wiki on that storm, i do recall a storm in feb 2011, but there were a lot that year.

by **Frank_Wx** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:33 pm

Will make a decision on whether or not to hold a chat tomorrow night based on tomorrow's 12z runs. Chat would be at 10pm. Same structure as before.

by **nutleyblizzard** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:38 pm

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM soundings and instability levels show 3 inch per hour snowfall rates. This could be a February 2011 type of storm but not expecting those type of snowfall amounts...yet.

NAM PARA

I looked at Feb 2011 snowstorm records, and there was nothing noted, ur not talking about the 2010 feb 25th storm are u?

by **nutleyblizzard** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:43 pm

Frank any chance we can get some transient blocking to slow this storm down? For if we have it, we could have a roidzilla on our hands.

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:47 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank any chance we can get some transient blocking to slow this storm down? For if we have it, we could have a roidzilla on our hands.

thats a good pt, would only need another 3-6 hrs of those rates to achieve that. but lets not get greedy, this was set to b a mothrazilla at most now words have been spoken of godzilla, pushing it for roid im pretty sure.

by **nutleyblizzard** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank any chance we can get some transient blocking to slow this storm down? For if we have it, we could have a roidzilla on our hands.
thats a good pt, would only need another 3-6 hrs of those rates to achieve that. but lets not get greedy, this was set to b a mothrazilla at most now words have been spoken of godzilla, pushing it for roid im pretty sure.

I'm not greedy JMan. Just pointing out any potential scenarios that could be at play here. Until we have full sampling, we won't know the full potential of this storm. I do like the stronger trends of the GEFS and EPS, though I would take anything at this point with the winter we've had thus far.

by **hyde345** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:02 pm

18Z GFS further south and weaker than 12z. Come on NAM. I'm rooting for ya.

by track17 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:14 pm

What are the jersey shores chances.? I know they are low but is there any hope

by **amugs** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:29 pm

PLEASE VERIFY!!!
SOB NAM if I ever wanted you know is this time to make things correct!!

by **amugs** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:39 pm

NAM JET STREAK IS INCREDIBLE

by **docstox12** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:47 pm

amugs wrote:PLEASE VERIFY!!!
SOB NAM if I ever wanted you know is this time to make things correct!!

OK,Mugsy, NWS starts the betting throwing a 1-3 inch chip in the pot! Didn't see this a few hours ago.Let's hope!! Oh, and don't let CP see this map.

by **amugs** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:52 pm

Gfs not bad but not NAM gives NYC metro moderate to heavy snow with lift and instability between hours 65ish to 68ish would be a 3-6" event
, mobile so can't posts maps.
Has a 1004 mb system sliDing off Delmarva in a NE direction.
This barcolonic set up from Tuesdays storm can seal rhe fate and sampling of the energy at that time as well.

by **amugs** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:53 pm

Doc NAM suite since the upgrade in the spring has been good this winter so far. Hope it becomes the euro of old and the euro the NAM!!

by **amugs** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:57 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank any chance we can get some transient blocking to slow this storm down? For if we have it, we could have a roidzilla on our hands.

Nuts,
Let's see what happens from the Tues storm once it gets out. Quicker and backs up in the 59/50 region COULD help gives a couple more hours and allow a NAM sol. Remember too jet structure is important we can get a quick storm but if we can get what I posted up over NE with the 300mb jet wow we get great lift and dendrites growth. Faster than my chIA pet Rocky from the fall!!

by **jmanley32** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:03 pm

Wow 18z nam is a Godzilla for some. Franks Sci has to go way up tomorrow I wpuld imagine. It doesn't look like we will get nothing. Nutley yeah I know just don't want jin it but bring it on heck let's get 6 inch per hr rates lol. Is that even posdible good god.

by **amugs** on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:06 pm

Nuts here is ur block thanks to the Para Nam which has been good, great with the convenience tI've storms.

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