Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:07 pm

Frank I'm no rookie when you see the same post twice from me it's a phone problem.

Upton Disco says most likely 4-8" LI. Higher totals n shore lower s shore
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:15 pm

12z para gfs...

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:19 pm

I think Frank was referencing my personal favorite storm of all time. It was rain and turned to snow about 9 pm. Snowed till 3 am. Picked up 19" in 6 hours. YES I KNOW WHAT I JUST TYPED. it switched over in Philadelphia first and they got slammed. I remember the weather channel reporting 2-4" per hour rates and I was like yeah right!!!!

We need Math to give us the correct date. HANDS DIWN MY FAVORITE EVENT EVER. WATCHED EVERY FLAKE IN FRONT OF THE FIRE WITH JACK........Daniels
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:19 pm

algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...

hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by track17 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:21 pm

Well after seeing those runs I wish everyone in the north luck. Obviously jersey shore is not getting hit on this. Good luck to the northern people

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:04 pm

If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Grselig on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

without a WSW its just not winter. We need one!!!!
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by rb924119 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:08 pm

Video coming out in a little bit!

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:11 pm

Grselig wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

without a WSW its just not winter.  We need one!!!!

SO true but Upton won't pull the trigger until teh dawn before terh storm - just look at Tuesday's storm for our areas with teh WWA!

GEFS Jesus H C some are HECS!!!! SOME ARE 0" - MADONNE - a lot of spread!!






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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:11 pm

GEFS Liquid - MADONNE _ BRING IT BABY!!


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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:12 pm

What are the chances of cnj coast seeing snow out of this
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:13 pm

rb924119 wrote:Video coming out in a little bit!
better b positive ur last post was all concerns why it won't happen lol
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by rb924119 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Video coming out in a little bit!
better b positive ur last post was all concerns why it won't happen lol

Not that it WON'T happen, just things that we should be keeping watch for, that's all. If you remember, I also said that it was looking good at that time, and I was impressed with the way the jet was trending lol

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:16 pm

Upton:

Big changes in our local weather, with near record high
temperatures Wednesday, followed quickly by a return to cold
temperatures with snow likely late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

A cold front passes early Wednesday, with colder air taking some
time to move in. As such, with a warm start to the day, expect
daytime high`s to approach records, well into the 50s to around 60
in spots. Any showers taper off as skies clear somewhat as the day
progresses.

Then, attention turns toward upstream trough, and eventual sfc low
that is forecast to develop to our southwest, and pass off the Mid
Atlantic coast, tracking toward or just south of the 40N/70W
benchmark.

For the Wed night-Thursday forecast will discount the fast GFS
solution, which is quick with the low development, and progression
east when compared to most other operational and ensemble forecasts.


It looks like rain moves in ahead of the approaching trough, and low
Wednesday night, with the best chance for measurable precip after
midnight. Any precip will initially be in the form of rain, then we
will see a transition from NW to SE to snow as colder air finally
ushers in north of the developing low.

Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.

Trough axis moves through Wed night as sfc low deepens as it
departs to the northeast. High pressure builds, then upstream
energy approaches as a warm front approaches late in the week. This
weekend could be unsettled, with possible light snow Friday night as
cold air remains in place. Temps warm as the weekend progresses, so
any precip would transition to rain.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:34 pm

Lee picked up on it at 6 and said he'd have more on it at 11 but mentioned there will be snow too
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...

hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

long island and coast are all white does that mean nothing for all of us?
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:42 pm

No Weatherwatchmom Just a model blip. We are in the pink 6-9"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:45 pm


Joanne, here is the 18z NAM, gives you some....

[/quote]

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:50 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...

hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

long island and coast are all white does that mean nothing for all of us?

Joanne I really not sure what to expect for our area but we have time. I also PM back sorry it took so long lol
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:00 pm

Peeps,

There is a good chance for snow for teh entire metro area down to the coast.
Upton looks to be riding EURO/UKIE/NAM blend.
Snow maps are fun to look at at this stage for sure.
There are a good number of variables at play but one things is intriguing is teh jet structure - if it come into play as it did for our Dec 17th, Jan 7th storms then we all could be dancing with a good storm.
Tomorrows 12 Z runs IMHO will be teh tell tale signs of this storms once we get the N energy and Pac energies onshore and better sampled.
Euro 12Z will be interesting since they are discounting the GFS at this time.
NAM suite - Reg NAM, 12K NAM, PARA and HI RES are ones to see indications of what we are seeing holds and what the dynamics will be to an extent,
Surely exciting after the sludge and drudgery of the last 4-5 days here.

From JB

Until we get this out into the plains, its not worth going wild over run to run. I just thought it was interesting that I walk into the house and I hear.. Hey dad did you see the 18z JMA and German models.



That got my achtung real quick

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:14 pm

SREFS BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:15 pm

Zoo - look ta the snow hole over our houses cant make this shit up - friggin unbelievable!!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:16 pm

HOLY CRAP SREFS MEAN - NAM IS LEADING THE WAY HERE _ FUN RUNS AHEAD PEEPS!!




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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:19 pm

amugs wrote:Zoo - look ta the snow hole over our houses cant make this shit up - friggin unbelievable!!

That's why I don't look at the sref maps much, NAM map much better! cheers

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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:20 pm

amugs wrote:SREFS BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

that's a whole shade jump for the area from last sref posted. Can't wait see nam may hsve Godzilla written on it.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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