February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by docstox12 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:10 am

billg315 wrote:38* and Partly Cloudy, headed toward the upper 50s this afternoon and forecast to be back into the mid 40s by the weekend. Who would think that's the set-up for nearly a foot of snow later tonight and tomorrow. Haha. This shows a couple things: 1.) If the right storm hits at the right time, you can get a snowstorm even in the midst or on the edges of a relatively warm pattern. And 2.) sometimes the energy needed for a big snowstorm can come from a system bringing a dramatic change in temperature which means sometimes a you need a little warmth to get some snow.

Yes, billg, and that is why I had a 50% confidence level last week when some here were ready to throw in the towel or say temps were going into the 70's in March.You have 4 months of snow possibility in these parts, Dec through March, and I have seen EVERYTHING watching since 1960.Things can change in the blink of an eye such as with this coming storm.NWS map looks good, heavy snow far into Pennsylvania and to south NJ, indications of an area wide storm.Still not set in stone but at this juncture, looking pretty good.Nowcast soon and the radar around 3 or 4 AM will tell the tale.
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Radz on Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:23 am

Amy Freeze 5-10 area wide but added 12 over LI and Ct east
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:24 am

Para Nam was amazing
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:34 am

RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!


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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:02 am

Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.

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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by oldtimer on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:06 am

Thanks Frank I am thrilled for all on this great forum !! : )

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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:13 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.



Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!! Good Luck to everyone!! and please no shovel buying today!!!!!
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:14 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.



Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!!


Same here Joanne we are looking good for this storm.
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Grselig on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:18 am

If I get 10 I will be thrilled.  Even then, all goes as predicted, our first true winter storm.   Winter is saved!!!!   Still a little fearful a model showed a SE trend.  Never happy till the deal is done.

Good move all, throwing in the towel last week.  Had to make a difference.
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:22 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.



Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!!


Same here Joanne we are looking good for this storm.

so excited...love the anticipation of a storm!!
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:23 am

New SREFS this morning...hold serve. Everyone wins.


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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:24 am

The Nam para 3km 4km rgem and sref all show near or over a foot for nyc and surround areas. I'm woken a happy guy!
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:26 am

Frank_Wx wrote:New SREFS this morning...hold serve. Everyone wins.



lol deleted my question about sref time...I was off an hour..we must have posted at the same time...looking good..so that means nam is next at 9?
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Grselig on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:29 am

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:29 am

EVEN BGM WINS ON THE SREF LOL!
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:30 am

SREF Mean for BGM is 13.0"
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by rb924119 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:32 am

They did trend a bit drier, mainly southwest of us, which in my opinion was expected. The question becomes how much drier will they continue to become? My honest worry is that we all end up in the darker blue, which is an average of .5-.75" liquid equivalent, versus where we are now at .75-1". Given the timeframe in which this system is occurring, it would only make sense that we see less QPF actually verify. I have to check how the PWAT anomalies ended up overnight, and see if there were any changes.....

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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by dkodgis on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:34 am

What is the left scale in terms of what units of measurement for the SREF?
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:39 am

Even TWC is on board, showing widespread purple for tomorrow. The last time they had Ocean county lit up in purple BEFORE a storm: the Jan 2015 mega-bust. Did I really just mention that?  Rolling Eyes

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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:42 am

amugs wrote:RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!


Wow that would be cool to see. 2-4" per hour rates. I wish I lived on LI so I could experience those...... Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz lol! lol! party party Thumbs up Thumbs up
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by docstox12 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:45 am

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!


Wow that would be cool to see.  2-4" per hour rates.  I wish I lived on LI so I could experience those...... Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz lol! lol! party party Thumbs up Thumbs up


lol! lol! lol! lol! HILARIOUS Jimmy
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:51 am

Take the 36 hour HRRR very lightly, but it's very impressive.

Total snow



Check out snowfall rates. 2 to 3 inches an hour


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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:52 am

I'd take that even here. For you guys, that's awesome!
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:53 am

12z NAM coming in now.

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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:56 am

question for the experts, which of the short range models do you lean on for best accuracy.

In my limited knowledge, the SREFS always seem a little over done qpf wise and too N and W based. The RGEM always seems the opposite a little S and E based. The NAM on the other hand is the King of this storm so far nailing it before anyone else.

When do the HRRR's come into play. During the storm 2 weeks ago they nailed exactly where the heaviest sleet would be which was right over my area and still covers the ground to this day. I was impressed and don't usually follow that model but it nailed it. Is it usually that reliable or was that just the case of a broken clock being correct twice a day? If they are reliable what is their best time frame and what other short term models are we coming into their good time frame?

Thanks in advance.

Just edited should have said short range not long range


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:02 am; edited 2 times in total
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

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