2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

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2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:34 pm

I was told I could start a thread but did not want to bother until I knew there was at least advisories and HWW in place.  I think it will be cool to start threads for incoming wind events and post observed gusts or sustained to see on a regular basis how often They DO or DO NOT verify.  So everyone in NYC and east is in a wind advisory, for some reason I am not sure about, the winds will be higher over NJ and south so they have a HWW, that seems odd to me, can any of the pros here explain that? It really is splitting hairs because according to the latest NWS briefing winds will range 45-55mph (60mph possible south of NYC (again not sure why) and RI to the cape), gusts to 60 are not that diff from 55 though. Could see some outages but IMO do not think they will be widespread (however if this ice around NYC holds on as it hasnt fully melted that could exacerbate things).  Start time looks to be after midnight slowing down by tomorrow evening.

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

GFS 850mb winds which as stated rb feels will mix down (a large portion anyways), these are kts so the coversion is 1kt=1.15078mph.



RGEM is pretty much in agreement with the GFS.

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:46 pm

GFS Gust map in Kts. This appears to last roughly from hr 12-24. So roughly a 12 hr period which is pretty substantial.



Rgem 900mb winds bit closer surface that the 850mb winds (there is no RGEM gust map I can find so this is sustained in kts also).



And the amped up Euro with maximum gusts in mph.

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:48 pm

Based on past experience, wind forecasts rarely verify here where mugs and I are in northern Bergen County. Maybe it's the hills in this section of the county that breaks it up...

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:54 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Based on past experience, wind forecasts rarely verify here where mugs and I are in northern Bergen County. Maybe it's the hills in this section of the county that breaks it up...
I would think of course on top of the hilly areas it would be higher but if you are in the valley yeah that usually slows winds down, just like here I notice where I liver versus up the road which is a much more open area the winds are always stronger, ie. Sandy did little to no damage in my neighborhood but up top the road was where all the outages came from with numerous very large trees downed. Not expecting that with this was just a for example on where you are highly depends on max winds.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Based on past experience, wind forecasts rarely verify here where mugs and I are in northern Bergen County. Maybe it's the hills in this section of the county that breaks it up...
I would think of course on top of the hilly areas it would be higher but if you are in the valley yeah that usually slows winds down, just like here I notice where I liver versus up the road which is a much more open area the winds are always stronger, ie. Sandy did little to no damage in my neighborhood but up top the road was where all the outages came from with numerous very large trees downed. Not expecting that with this was just a for example on where you are highly depends on max winds.

Of course, here in Southern Queens, we get some pretty strong winds when they come, I'm on the side of Queens which leans toward the ocean so when it blows, you know it...

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by docstox12 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:00 pm

NICE WORK Jman and I'm glad you are in charge of the wind analysis section!! Tomorrow looks interesting, we will see.NWS says its going to start kicking up around midnight here.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by SENJsnowman on Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:37 pm

Ocean County, NJ: Home to the best Wind-Zilla's in the East! At least we take the gold in something!

Not nearly as sexy as the snow (No offense Jman), but my 6 yr old does love watching the 'tree show' in the back yard.

Unfortunately, we have already had a few larger trees in the back woods come down from Thursday's rain and wind show. This of course was after the heavy gut punches we took from the wind and rain just a few weeks ago. At least they've been falling towards the woods so far...

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:42 pm

Wow, the best post Jman's ever made in the history of NJ Strong. Congrats!!

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:50 pm

JMAN!!
Excellent post my man. Great work. Love to see tjis come to fruition.

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, the best post Jman's ever made in the history of NJ Strong. Congrats!!
Well after 11k posts I am not sure if I should take that as a compliment to my past 2 YEARS HERE LOL, Thanks though, I figured you might think it was decent.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:06 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Ocean County, NJ: Home to the best Wind-Zilla's in the East! At least we take the gold in something!

Not nearly as sexy as the snow (No offense Jman), but my 6 yr old does love watching the 'tree show' in the back yard.

Unfortunately, we have already had a few larger trees in the back woods come down from Thursday's rain and wind show. This of course was after the heavy gut punches we took from the wind and rain just a few weeks ago. At least they've been falling towards the woods so far...

If I could have a blizzard I would much rather that, and a snow event verifies more than wind but it has always fascinated me as such a strong force that cannot be seen. I too love watching the trees, and hearing it come from one direction blow through me and past, it can be quite feeling and is relaxing (unless its ST like sandy that is, ya I went out at 6:30 (dumb I know) power was out dark as s%%t walked too far and was scared as heck trying get back with 80mph+ gusts over head and trying to stay as far away from trees as I could.
I hear ya my parents live in a wooded section of CT, I have fond memories of our tree fort that was built by my father in between a perfect square of sycamore trees with very high ladder (honestly, what was my dad thinking making it so high with little in the way of prtection from falling) (sadly and not due to weather events, that day at least, one came down on the garage (after examining the base it was termites so they other 4 had to come down before they fell and the largest part was handing over the rest of the garage and would have demolished it. Yes it did quite a bit of damage, narrowly missing the car inside (there is a above room so it pierced the roof and the floor boards into the actual garage.  I was home from college parents at work, when I wrnt out to look noticed that the stone wall which had fall off in front of it the night before (should have been a sign the tree was giving out, we didnt think anything of it as its a 1800's stacked stone wall and they roll off).  Well this one had tipped and perched itself on top of the power resistor which was slowly catching fire, so I called the power company and the fire dept. When I called my father he was hesitant to believe me but I told him he better come home NOW. I had a habit of making stories more elaborate than they actually were.  So he came home and yeah the look on his face was not good, they proceeded to have the other 3 taken down that week.

Secondly we had a grove of id say 8 or so evergreen trees (very large) which was awesome to play under as it was almost like a cave especially in winter when the bows of the trees would touch the ground so you could go under and was like a nature made snow fort.  Well between the October snowstorm, Irene and Sandy there is now ONE crippled evergreen left and a giant void where you can clearly see neighbors house now (we used to have some privacy, LOL). Now my parents also have some of the largest and oldest (one is guessed to be a few thousand years old, maple trees (3) which have only ever lost brances but if you lived under them in a big wind storm you always worry cuz they would flatten the very large house they own.  I think the roots probably are hundreds of feet down so unless we get a f5 tornado I think we are safe with them.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by Joe Snow on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:15 pm

Jman you just blew everybody with your post, Good one congrats..........Pun Intended
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:28 pm

Joe Snow wrote:Jman you just blew everybody with your post, Good one congrats..........Pun Intended
LOL, trying contribute more than just hype man and enthusist! One thing I realize is no matter how bad I want ST, if it doesnt happen IYBY it just wasn't meant to be, I think CP said go down with your ship, so though I WAS in CT and got to see heavy snow today, that trip was planned weeks ago (btw I was not the lucky ass winners who hit 1.2 million dollars on a $1 slot machine (Mohegan sun is not used to paying out like that, though their billions that should be nothing). I did however manage to hit $1k on a (funny enough) monopoly $1 machine too. I said good way to end things was piss drunk so wanted get bed early so I could drive well today. I was def disappointed the HWW was downgraded for my area, but no point in complaining about ST we cannot control. I have of recent taken this line of thinking more due to other things but it has seeped into this too.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:46 pm

Thanks for posting this!
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:55 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks for posting this!
Not a problem, when the pros on here frank, sroc, rb etc. feel a wind event (not a quick front or thunderstorms, though I do usually do the posts for severe weather too) I will make a thread, I would like to be able to look back and see how many verify and if so for what percentage of the area and what areas verify the most.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:03 pm

Its coming you can see the stronger winds to the west with the HP, headed aimed right at the LP, the LP actually will bomb out like crazy tonight and even back into the coast a bit and that will tighten our pressure gradiant, honestly, the GFS shows a 980mb system while rgem has a 969mb system at time highest winds, if 969 verifies It may be possible they reinstate the HWW for all areas.  We will see.



BTW frank you post that map of the wind gusts on jersey shore, where do you get that or is it a pay thing? Also does it have a choice for NYC area?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:07 pm

Also anyone have a link to live LP system central pressures, id like to see how low this gets.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Its coming you can see the stronger winds to the west with the HP, headed aimed right at the LP, the LP actually will bomb out like crazy tonight and even back into the coast a bit and that will tighten our pressure gradiant, honestly, the GFS shows a 980mb system while rgem has a 969mb system at time highest winds, if 969 verifies It may be possible they reinstate the HWW for all areas.  We will see.



BTW frank you post that map of the wind gusts on jersey shore, where do you get that or is it a pay thing? Also does it have a choice for NYC area?

Jman I will reporting winds from the Jersey shore
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:26 pm

Wow cool, put it on future cast, these are sustained winds, wow

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=41.76&longitude=-72.67&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0059
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks for posting this!
Not a problem, when the pros on here frank, sroc, rb etc. feel a wind event (not a quick front or thunderstorms, though I do usually do the posts for severe weather too) I will make a thread, I would like to be able to look back and see how many verify and if so for what percentage of the area and what areas verify the most.

When I finish my "project", of which only Frank knows, it should (theoretically, at least) be able to help with this. I know it works for what I have beta-tested it for, but I have yet to try it for this aspect of weather. I don't see why it wouldn't work, though lol and yes, I'm being purposefully vague, because I think the work/wait/anticipation will be well worth it for all of us during/after events, although that opinion could be biased by my creation of said "project" to begin with ahaha

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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:22 pm

NWS Disco Upton.

Bigger story late tonight will be increasing NW winds after
midnight...with winds increasing to 20 to 35 mph with gusts 45
to 55 mph late in response to strong pressure
gradient...caa...and pressure rises. Wind Advisory has been
issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main story in the short term is the winds.

950 hPa winds are progged to 40-45 kt across most of the region
Monday, with lapse rates approaching dry adiabatic, especially near
the coast. MOS has been consistently showing sustained winds around
30 kt over the area as well. As a result, have issued a wind
advisory for the entire CWA, from 7z to 23z Monday, for gusty NW
winds of 20-35mph with gusts of 45 to 55mph.

Right now, it appears mixing will be limited to 900-875 hPa Monday,
but if deeper mixing can be achieved, then could tap into 60 kt 850
hPa jet. If this happens then isolated 50 kt could occur, with the
best chance near the immediate Atlantic Coast and over higher
elevations across interior portions of the CWA.
Winds diminish
Monday night from west to east as the pressure gradient relaxes over
the area.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:04 am



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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:43 am

They are cranking here jman
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by Radz on Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:02 am

Had a few good gusts so far but unfortunately it seems my anemometer is frozen so no data, will have to go out and give it a spin
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:36 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:


Wow some guts to 58mph already damn, you are in a warning yes? I have not been out yet (I do not have a weather station setup as I live in an apartment but i have a handheld anemometer. But I hear it whipping through the windows.
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Re: 2/13/17 High Wind Event Warnings / Advisories Issued

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