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March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

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March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Empty March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:24 am

Buongiorno Ragazzi -

As mentioned I will be traveling this weekend. Leaving tomorrow for Dallas and not returning until Monday evening. Models are hinting at an inverted trough setting up on Saturday and bringing moderate snow to parts of the area late that evening or early Sunday morning. I placed snow confidence level at 70% this morning for at least 1" of snow for CPK. IVT are VERY difficult to predict and surface temps appear to be above freezing from NYC on south and east.

NAM Model valid 11pm Saturday and 1am Sunday

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event 58ca821fab2d9

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event 58ca8229345e4

That shows 4 to 8 inches of snow for parts of NNJ, NEPA, N&W of NYC. Likely 3-6 inches for NYC, and 2-4 inches for people to the south. The NAM is quite bullish with this event.

EURO Model valid 1am and 5am Sunday

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event 58ca826d1dbf9

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event 58ca8286b0c30

EURO is also quite bullish so there is reason to take this event seriously.

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Gfs_z500_vort_neus_13

The 500mb low is passing OVER or JUST north of our area. I would feel more confident in a significant accumulation if this low tracked south of our area.

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Gfs_z500_vort_namer_13

There's lots of PVA within the trough though, and it does go negative at one point overnight Saturday. This is why I believe this event is more of an IVT.

Upton seems to agree:

Upton wrote:Models agree that low pressure dives down through the Great Lakes
Region during Saturday with a secondary low pressure development
which emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night. This
coastal low eventually tracks northeast, passing to the southeast of
the 40N/70W benchmark during Sunday. An inverted trough potentially
shifts through the CWA during Saturday night before the storm pulls
away. This could potentially serve as a focus of enhanced PCPN as an
upper trough/shortwave interacts with it. As usually the case, its
very difficult this far out to say with much confidence if/where the
inverted trough/enhanced PCPN actually occurs. In any case, there is
enough confidence to go with likely PoPs across the area with this
setup. PCPN would become likely west to east as Saturday progresses,
then tapers off Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Regarding PCPN type, there is no apparent elevated warm layer being
progged by any of the models, so PCPN type would therefore be
dependent on the boundary layer thermal profile and likely not
include sleet or freezing rain. Expecting and all-snow event only
for the northern fringe zones of the CWA with mixed rain and snow or
mainly rain farther south. Currently have a forecast of 1-3 inches
of snowfall north of the city, and 1 inch or less for Long Island,

I will try and provide today's models if I have time. I will leave it up to the other forecasters of this board to track this event. I will release my official forecast for this event, without a map, later this afternoon.





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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:47 am

Nice write up Frank. I'm in Savannah Georgia and on mobile only. Supposed to fly home as this event is set to unfold. It would be a shame if I get stuck down here for an additional day.
told ya

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:28 am

SREFS for this upcoming storm -we'll see

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event SREFNE24Precip09075.thumb.jpg.3da06f0107630f5006cfb2a7bc448882

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:36 am

NNJ sitting pretty here at this point - time will tell - we shifted 100 mile south sop far if this continues it will be an ACY event LOL

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Post by Guest Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:47 am

If it helps any, I'll ask the Snow Gods to send all of the snow for far northwest down your way.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:40 am

this should be interesting. right now TWC has:

Friday night: Snow showers late

Saturday: Rain/snow  1-3"

Saturday night: Snow 1-3"

to be continued.........

Enjoy the lone star state, get some good BBQ
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Post by billg315 Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:12 am

I'm at a wedding Saturday night and staying at a hotel there. As long at they plow the parking lot Sunday morning I'll be ok I suppose.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:32 am

12z NAM has the IVT over NNJ/NYC/LI

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event 58caafda26890

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:56 am

GFS sniffin this out

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Gfs_apcpn24_neus_8.thumb.jpg.240727fcb27f84c9b72ee95cda9b277a

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:08 pm

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Gfs_asnow24_neus_8.thumb.jpg.4f8a21601a6e09cd18098f3703465327

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:08 pm

wow that 7" spot lol
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Post by jimv45 Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:21 pm

if the gfs is right that put a nice 4-6 in my are of southern dutchess boy no more room after the 23 but the snow nut in me will take it.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:46 pm

7 inch spot almost right over me. Not expecting it just because of the unpredictability of events like this IVTs and the like but certainly won't complain if it happens. The more snow the merrier.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:59 pm

yea cp 4-7 in our area is nothing to complain about that's for sure. If it happens.

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:01 pm

Since Frank will be in Dallas this weekend, I now know that the inverted trough will set up right over Cranford. Epic Godzilla incoming for that neighborhood! Razz

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:25 pm

Interesting

UKIE
March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event PA_000-072_0000

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:04 pm

amugs wrote:Interesting

UKIE
March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event PA_000-072_0000

How much of it is snow though?

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:24 pm

Math for u don't me for e in NNJ it is all snow

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:09 pm

NAM'S COMING IN HOT AND HEAVY

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:10 pm

Mobile will post in a few

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Post by frank 638 Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:13 pm

Lee has his first early call so far he has everyone for 1 to 3 inches

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:17 pm

frank 638 wrote:Lee has his first early call so far he has everyone for 1 to 3 inches
He's humpin' the EURO and REG NAM - GFS and PARA and HI RES NAMS are not saying that - the battle again
This would be a warning type of snow for a good portion if it verifies - falls from 7PMish till 6AMish Saturday night into Sunday morning
March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Nam3km_asnow_neus_61

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event 58caf803a6919.thumb.png.1b1a041b791342b2905464261fe7e8d1

Reg NAM
March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event Namconus_asnow_neus_26

Off of PW
March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event IMG_6304.thumb.PNG.f2392e2afc8a43e1714adfaeb6ba271c

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Post by frank 638 Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:18 pm

Thanks amugz I will take it happy with that so far bring on the snow

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:21 pm

Watch the city get more snow from this than on Tuesday from the "blizzzzzzard"... Basketball
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:23 pm

In all honesty, I think eastern LI gets the jackpot from this inverted trough. So Scott, this is your storm Wink

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