Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:Surprised nobody has posted about the NAM. 12k is North But 4K is juicy 3k coming in now.

I saw. The SREFS also improved but timing and temperature will be key. One SREF member has it getting into the mid 50s Friday afternoon. I don't think it will get THAT warm then (at least I hope not) but it illustrates that we will have cold air to our north and warm air to our south and that we are in the battleground during the window for Wave 1. It's after the wave passes that temperatures drop dramatically.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:23 pm

Regular nam



12z nam



4k nam



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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:26 pm

4K is still snowing at the end of its run:




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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:46 pm

This pushed well north now lol city south sees little.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:This pushed well north now lol city south sees little.

GFS says otherwise
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:25 pm

CMC crushes inland areas. Snow to rain for the coast but wow, what a huge storm.

GFS also has a big storm
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:26 pm

Wave 3 is a Miller B bomb for us on Tuesday.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:33 pm

Wow, GFS and CMC show a huge storm for Tuesday

What a setup
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:52 pm

Snow88 wrote:Wow, GFS and CMC show a huge storm for Tuesday

What a setup

I eluded to this earlier; wave 3 is gonna deliver the goods. Also, Eric Fisher (awesome MET out of BOS) just tweeted that Tuesday is the best overall setup. Friday's an appetizer.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:53 pm

3-6" for wave one on the ukie. Off shore for wave 3 on tues
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:58 am

Wave 1 will move fast and surface temps are marginal. I'm hesitant to call anything over 3 inches at the moment. Wave 2 looks like a done deal. Will remain well south of the area. A thread may have to be started for wave 3 (next Tuesday). That's s very intriguing setup.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:42 am

The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map? Laughing
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:02 am

SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map? Laughing
still in bed but I'd b posting the absolute crush job of the 18 to 24 plus imby! And the wind 989mb inside bm wowee! What a nice thing to wake to.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:03 am

Does anyone have euro?
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:09 am

Anyay the strip of heavier snow trends south a bit? But honestly if tues happens I'm good lol. Euro looks like it showed a cut well inland drat. But I think it was improvement from previous run.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:31 am

SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map? Laughing

are you talking about wave 1 or wave 3 a little confused this am...just curious..I am traveling on Friday...
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:33 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map? Laughing

are you talking about wave 1 or wave 3 a little confused this am...just curious..I am traveling on Friday...

Wave 3 Mom - look in the LR what a set up on the table - could be one to remember if it falls right.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:41 am

amugs wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map? Laughing

are you talking about wave 1 or wave 3 a little confused this am...just curious..I am traveling on Friday...

Wave 3 Mom - look in the LR what a set up on the table - could be one to remember if it falls right.

thanks trying to get kid ready for school and read at same time...lol...I will go to lr after drop off...i love snow but hate to drive in it!! need to be home with hot chocolate and kindle...have a great day! Smile
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:15 am

I am thinking from central NJ on south you will see little to no accumulation. north-central NJ, NYC, and LI a C-2", and NNJ, N&W of NYC possibly 2-4" isolated amounts near 6"

We'll see what models say later today. But that is my forecast.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:44 am

NAM 12k




NAM 4K


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:51 am

That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:52 am

The NAM can be overdone with precip; however, it can sometimes sniff out when there are enhanced vertical motion dynamics better than the global models. The rgem is just starting to come into range. so we shall see how this evloves in the s/r. If we see some of these higher totals it will likely be within a narrow band and be secondary to potent Baroclinic zone and enhanced vertical motion because of it. Surface temps will not be an issue if you are under the area of best forcing as dynamic cooling will rapidly take over and surface temps will crash.


upper 20's and low 30's are not that far off from upper 40's and 50's hence the strongtemp gradient and mechanism for enhanced lift.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:52 am

mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

I guess its a good thing the big beastly Toro is back under the porch huh?
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:54 am

dew points at the start as per NAM verbatim:


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

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