Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Unless it snows hard you have that March sun now that will melt most of what falls in the streets

Surprised nobody has posted about the NAM. 12k is North But 4K is juicy 3k coming in now.

sroc4 wrote:Surprised nobody has posted about the NAM. 12k is North But 4K is juicy 3k coming in now.

I saw. The SREFS also improved but timing and temperature will be key. One SREF member has it getting into the mid 50s Friday afternoon. I don't think it will get THAT warm then (at least I hope not) but it illustrates that we will have cold air to our north and warm air to our south and that we are in the battleground during the window for Wave 1. It's after the wave passes that temperatures drop dramatically.

Regular nam



12z nam



4k nam

4K is still snowing at the end of its run:

This pushed well north now lol city south sees little.

jmanley32 wrote:This pushed well north now lol city south sees little.

GFS says otherwise

CMC crushes inland areas. Snow to rain for the coast but wow, what a huge storm.

GFS also has a big storm

Wave 3 is a Miller B bomb for us on Tuesday.

Wow, GFS and CMC show a huge storm for Tuesday

What a setup

Snow88 wrote:Wow, GFS and CMC show a huge storm for Tuesday

What a setup

I eluded to this earlier; wave 3 is gonna deliver the goods. Also, Eric Fisher (awesome MET out of BOS) just tweeted that Tuesday is the best overall setup. Friday's an appetizer.

3-6" for wave one on the ukie. Off shore for wave 3 on tues

Wave 1 will move fast and surface temps are marginal. I'm hesitant to call anything over 3 inches at the moment. Wave 2 looks like a done deal. Will remain well south of the area. A thread may have to be started for wave 3 (next Tuesday). That's s very intriguing setup.

The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map?

SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map?

still in bed but I'd b posting the absolute crush job of the 18 to 24 plus imby! And the wind 989mb inside bm wowee! What a nice thing to wake to.

Does anyone have euro?

Anyay the strip of heavier snow trends south a bit? But honestly if tues happens I'm good lol. Euro looks like it showed a cut well inland drat. But I think it was improvement from previous run.

SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map?

are you talking about wave 1 or wave 3 a little confused this am...just curious..I am traveling on Friday...

weatherwatchermom wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map?

are you talking about wave 1 or wave 3 a little confused this am...just curious..I am traveling on Friday...

Wave 3 Mom - look in the LR what a set up on the table - could be one to remember if it falls right.

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:The 6z GFS just SHUT IT DOWN Olivia Pope style. Who'll be the first to post THAT snow map?

are you talking about wave 1 or wave 3 a little confused this am...just curious..I am traveling on Friday...

Wave 3 Mom - look in the LR what a set up on the table - could be one to remember if it falls right.

thanks trying to get kid ready for school and read at same time...lol...I will go to lr after drop off...i love snow but hate to drive in it!! need to be home with hot chocolate and kindle...have a great day!

I am thinking from central NJ on south you will see little to no accumulation. north-central NJ, NYC, and LI a C-2", and NNJ, N&W of NYC possibly 2-4" isolated amounts near 6"

We'll see what models say later today. But that is my forecast.

NAM 12k




NAM 4K

That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

The NAM can be overdone with precip; however, it can sometimes sniff out when there are enhanced vertical motion dynamics better than the global models. The rgem is just starting to come into range. so we shall see how this evloves in the s/r. If we see some of these higher totals it will likely be within a narrow band and be secondary to potent Baroclinic zone and enhanced vertical motion because of it. Surface temps will not be an issue if you are under the area of best forcing as dynamic cooling will rapidly take over and surface temps will crash.


upper 20's and low 30's are not that far off from upper 40's and 50's hence the strongtemp gradient and mechanism for enhanced lift.

mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

sroc4 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

I guess its a good thing the big beastly Toro is back under the porch huh?

dew points at the start as per NAM verbatim: