Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:55 am

mikeypizano wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

I guess its a good thing the big beastly Toro is back under the porch huh?

Im a supersitious man Mikey P. Therefore I will not comment on that just yet. Wink

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:59 am

sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

I guess its a good thing the big beastly Toro is back under the porch huh?

Im a supersitious man Mikey P.  Therefore I will not comment on that just yet.  Wink

If it works, we get nothing! If it fails, I make money... Wink
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:18 am

RGEM has an interesting 500mb look to it.


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by billg315 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:39 am

I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and it looks like after the snow starts to end mid-to-late morning Friday over North Jersey, it picks back up again into the evening (around hours 57, 60). Almost looks like a Norlun trough sets up back over the northern half of the state behind the system. But I don't know nearly enough about Norlun troughs to even know if that is what it is. I'll leave it to Scott or Frank to figure out why the model shows this "second band" of snow late in the day. But thinking that could add to the snow totals especially if its after 3 or 4 p.m. as the sun starts to set.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:38 pm

billg315 wrote:I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and it looks like after the snow starts to end mid-to-late morning Friday over North Jersey, it picks back up again into the evening (around hours 57, 60). Almost looks like a Norlun trough sets up back over the northern half of the state behind the system. But I don't know nearly enough about Norlun troughs to even know if that is what it is. I'll leave it to Scott or Frank to figure out why the model shows this "second band" of snow late in the day. But thinking that could add to the snow totals especially if its after 3 or 4 p.m. as the sun starts to set.

For me it goes back to why I said the rgem looked interesting.  If you folllow 500mb with surface youlll see precip starts light as the overrunning event associted with the energy I have circled furthest east; however there does look like there is some phasing that is occuring so we may see a second round, or back filling as the second  area circled rotes through.  This one is not nailed down just yet IMO.



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:43 pm

billg315 wrote:I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and it looks like after the snow starts to end mid-to-late morning Friday over North Jersey, it picks back up again into the evening (around hours 57, 60). Almost looks like a Norlun trough sets up back over the northern half of the state behind the system. But I don't know nearly enough about Norlun troughs to even know if that is what it is. I'll leave it to Scott or Frank to figure out why the model shows this "second band" of snow late in the day. But thinking that could add to the snow totals especially if its after 3 or 4 p.m. as the sun starts to set.

The PVA associated with the trough rounding out our area is potent. The surface low is well east of the coast at this time, but this could definitely spawn additional snow showers late Friday.




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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:52 pm

Most of the models have trended North except for the UK ie. Gives our area 6 to 9 inches of snow. A little concerning is the rgem being so far north but still not in its prime range yet
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:02 pm

The euro is south and looks similar to the UKIE. Do not have qpf feels so if someone can post
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:03 pm

EURO for wave 1



Surface looks warm, precip is light, and it's coming during the day. Would not expect much.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:17 pm

1-3" incoming on Friday. Looks like 2am-10am timing. Isolated areas to see 4 inches.


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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:20 pm

Most likely a thin stripe of 3-6" will exist somewhere between southern NY and north-central NJ. Where EURO places it makes sense given temp profiles.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:12 pm

Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:31 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...


Check long range thread...

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:34 pm

SREFS solid 3" event


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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:40 pm

amugs wrote:SREFS solid 3" event


The SREFs have been back and forth on the Friday snow. The 15Z SREF mean for LGA is lower than the prior run. Curious as to what the 21Z SREFS bring.

Also, The 12Z RGEM did not look great for Friday. Takes too long for the snow to come in and by the time it's cold enough, it's passed us by hr 48 (7 AM Friday). Also curious as to what the 18Z RGEM brings us as it would be in the critical stage at that point.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Mar 08, 2017 3:00 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
amugs wrote:SREFS solid 3" event


The SREFs have been back and forth on the Friday snow.  The 15Z SREF mean for LGA is lower than the prior run.  Curious as to what the 21Z SREFS bring.

Also, The 12Z RGEM did not look great for Friday.  Takes too long for the snow to come in and by the time it's cold enough, it's passed us by hr 48 (7 AM Friday).  Also curious as to what the 18Z RGEM brings us as it would be in the critical stage at that point.

I wonder how it will be for me. The high tomorrow is going to be 51, and then snow over night, so I wonder how high it will actually get and how quick it drops. I hate slush on the bottom, and my snow blower hates it too.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...


Check long range thread...

Argh! I'm such a doofus (and monitoring remotely on my phone)—just now realizing this thread isn't for all 3 waves we're watching lol. My bad, guys!
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:48 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...


Check long range thread...

Argh! I'm such a doofus (and monitoring remotely on my phone)—just now realizing this thread isn't for all 3 waves we're watching lol. My bad, guys!


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:49 pm

18z GFS wetter for Friday

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by frank 638 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:57 pm

lee goldberg has 1to 3 inches for most of us and 3 + for northern nj .now for the tues storm he thinks we could see a major noreaster this is getting exciting

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:07 pm

Maintain my thoughts of 1-3 inches with accumulations limited to cold surfaces. May start as rain NYC on south.

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:13 pm

frank 638 wrote:lee goldberg has 1to 3 inches for most of us  and 3 + for northern nj .now for the tues storm he thinks we could see a major noreaster this is getting exciting

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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by dkodgis on Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:00 pm

In tonight's forecast, Lee Goldberg said he thought the totals would be higher in the 11 pm forecast.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:50 pm

4K NAM

Nice hit NNJ and NYC North




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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Armando Salvadore on Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:04 pm

Meh soundings not really supportive of snow, the column is saturated, but there is a warm tongue between 1000-925mb in the NYC metro. Going to need that vort max and H7 omega to produce just enough to allow some minor accumulation on cold surfaces, other than that think the better accumulating snow is confined towards I-80 and like a 10 mile distance N and S of it.
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Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

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