FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

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FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:00 am

So here is my first call snowfall map.  As I had alluded to in prev posts I believe there will be a fairly robust baroclinic zone with warm Atlantic moisture and temps to the south and the arctic air mass to the N which will enhance vertical motion.  



A second feature which appears consistent now on both GFS and Euro is a 300mb jet streak favorably positioned over N NE.  The positioning and timing is such that as the surface LP reaches the coast it is within the favorable R Rear Quadrant of the JS which divergence aloft to the N will further enhance vertical motion and deepen the LP more rapidly, but not bomb out, enhancing QPF esp over eastern half of our area.  






Additionally in prev posts I alluded to the possibility of a storm track more west to east vs one that maybe took a slight SW to NE trajectory.  Latest model data including both globals and now s/r modeling indicates the trough digging more than prev forecasted into the Ohio valley.  With such a vigorous vort max associated with the trough and the trough appearing to go at least neutral, but maybe even slight neg, as it approaches the region I suspect the system may end up more robust than people think.  This is more of a hunch though so take it with a grain of salt.  

Right now given all the above reasoning I think a bust on the low side for some areas is possible.  If im going to bust high anywhere it will likely be from I-78 southward through NJ.  We shall see.  An updated map will be issued tonight if needed.    



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
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Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by SNOW MAN on Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:28 am

sroc4 wrote:So here is my first call snowfall map.  As I had alluded to in prev posts I believe there will be a fairly robust baroclinic zone with warm Atlantic moisture and temps to the south and the arctic air mass to the N which will enhance vertical motion.  



A second feature which appears consistent now on both GFS and Euro is a 300mb jet streak favorably positioned over N NE.  The positioning and timing is such that as the surface LP reaches the coast it is within the favorable R Rear Quadrant of the JS which divergence aloft to the N will further enhance vertical motion and deepen the LP more rapidly, but not bomb out, enhancing QPF esp over eastern half of our area.  






Additionally in prev posts I alluded to the possibility of a storm track more west to east vs one that maybe took a slight SW to NE trajectory.  Latest model data including both globals and now s/r modeling indicates the trough digging more than prev forecasted into the Ohio valley.  With such a vigorous vort max associated with the trough and the trough appearing to go at least neutral, but maybe even slight neg, as it approaches the region I suspect the system may end up more robust than people think.  This is more of a hunch though so take it with a grain of salt.  

Right now given all the above reasoning I think a bust on the low side for some areas is possible.  If im going to bust high anywhere it will likely be from I-78 southward through NJ.  We shall see.  An updated map will be issued tonight if needed.    



Thank you. This is much better.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by docstox12 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:55 am

Good Morning SNOW MAN!!

Doc, Lee Goldberg last night said he would bump up his original 1 to 3 area wide to 2 to 4 with some possible 3 to 5 inches in some spots.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:57 am

I think this is the kind of event where colder surfaces for obvious reasons get 3-5" while the paved surfaces remain slushy at best!!! This will lead to really difficult decisions regarding school openings on LI. I feel like there will be many 2 hour delays. NYC metro and the 5 boroughs probably will not see any accumulations at all due to the heat island. 4" puts me at 40" which would be miraculous.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:00 am

docstox12 wrote:Good Morning SNOW MAN!!

Doc, Lee Goldberg last night said he would bump up his original 1 to 3 area wide to 2 to 4 with some possible 3 to 5 inches in some spots.

Bill Evans still using 1-3" maps while everyone is bumping up totals

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:08 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Good Morning SNOW MAN!!

Doc, Lee Goldberg last night said he would bump up his original 1 to 3 area wide to 2 to 4 with some possible 3 to 5 inches in some spots.

Bill Evans still using 1-3" maps while everyone is bumping up totals

Good we'll see 4" plus then .............. Warm surfaces amy melt some in the beginning but soundings showing cold air in place up here in NNJ.
GF6Z spit out a warning level storm for NNj and EPA along with LHV. Too bad we dont have an arctic mass in place like we get after the storm or else everyone woudl cash in.



Places like West Milford and Sussex could see major accumulations from this.

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by SNOW MAN on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:25 am

docstox12 wrote:Good Morning SNOW MAN!!

Doc, Lee Goldberg last night said he would bump up his original 1 to 3 area wide to 2 to 4 with some possible 3 to 5 inches in some spots.

Good morning Doc. I know I haven't been on here a lot lately. It's because I have been helping my Mom out lately and with working it's been real busy. Plus I shouldn't even be on here now because our new parent company that bought us doesn't want anybody doing anything but keeping their nose to the grind stone. As they put it to us in a meeting. The only thing we care about is money, we don't care about personal or family issue's or anything else. All we care about is making money. Thankfully I only have less than 5 years to retire. And trust me I can't wait ! I just hope I can keep my job until then. So far they laid off 57 people.
I'm hoping to get a decent snowfall tomorrow in my area and hopefully next weeks storm will come together and hit all of us with some white gold. For me this Winter has been dismal. I've had less than 15 inches of snow so far. But Frank called it last year when he said this Winter was going to be ugly. Take care. I'll try and post when I can.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:40 am

Question for Frank:

When you setup the SCI it was to show the probability of at least an inch of snow from that event in Central Park. I noticed today you ad a 40% chance for the March 14th event with Godzilla next to it. Does this mean there is a 40% chance of a Godzilla or 40% chance at an inch? Big difference of course and inquiring minds want to know.

Thanks

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:42 am

SREFS!!!!!!!!!


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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Snow88 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:51 am

Surface temps drop as the precip moves in even in the NYC area

I do think there will be some accumulations on paved surfaces but mostly on colder surfaces. 2-4 inches look good right now.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:55 am

Snow88 wrote:Surface temps drop as the precip moves in even in the NYC area

I do think there will be some accumulations on paved surfaces but mostly on colder surfaces. 2-4 inches look good right now.

For teh UHI or Steam generator of NYC - Burbs will see 4-6" maybe pops of 7" in higher elevations.

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:58 am

Every nap sroc4 puts out always has his house in the "special potential higher amounts area" which he then purposefully extends westbound towards but never quite reaching MBY. Funny how this works
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Snow88 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:00 am

Nam is south of the last run. Looking good.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:01 am

syosnow94 wrote:Every nap sroc4 puts out always has his house in the "special potential higher amounts area" which he then purposefully extends westbound towards but never quite reaching MBY. Funny how this works


I do not understand what your saying Jimmy:

takenback

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Armando Salvadore on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:11 am

Nice post Scott and RB back on the other threat. This vort max swinging through is pretty robust, and the omega within the DGZ has sufficient VV, so places like NNJ, NYC metro, NE PA should see a few hours of good rates. I can buy 1-3/2-4", but the antecedent airmass in place is marginal so we're going to need the column cooled fast plus we'll lose some precipitation to evaporational cooling anyway.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:58 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Question for Frank:

When you setup the SCI it was to show the probability of at least an inch of snow from that event in Central Park. I noticed today you ad a 40% chance for the March 14th event with Godzilla next to it. Does this mean there is a 40% chance of a Godzilla or 40% chance at an inch? Big difference of course and inquiring minds want to know.

Thanks


Still 1"

I just wanted to call it something, but that is kinda confusing. My bad.

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:58 am

Scott, great call. I have to agree.

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:01 am

The GFS snow map above has 8 inches IMBY, now that would be something, second largest this year to date if it happened.  If I can squeeze out 4-6 and then cash in next week I will near 50 inches which would be incredible but doesnt count for the contest drat

BTW I did not expect it to be so windy today, its loud can hear it through windows, not 81moh like rochester but got a special wx statement for gusts to 40mph, seems like we have had more wind events this winter than snow, wish it was both combined.
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:18 am

RGEM


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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by docstox12 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:23 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Good Morning SNOW MAN!!

Doc, Lee Goldberg last night said he would bump up his original 1 to 3 area wide to 2 to 4 with some possible 3 to 5 inches in some spots.

Good morning Doc. I know I haven't been on here a lot lately. It's because I have been helping my Mom out lately and with working it's been real busy. Plus I shouldn't even be on here now because our new parent company that bought us doesn't want anybody doing anything but keeping their nose to the grind stone. As they put it to us in a meeting. The only thing we care about is money, we don't care about personal or family issue's or anything else. All we care about is making money. Thankfully I only have less than 5 years to retire. And trust me I can't wait ! I just hope I can keep my job until then. So far they laid off 57 people.
   I'm hoping to get a decent snowfall tomorrow in my area and hopefully next weeks storm will come together and hit all of us with some white gold. For me this Winter has been dismal. I've had less than 15 inches of snow so far. But Frank called it last year when he said this Winter was going to be ugly. Take care. I'll try and post when I can.

Same here, SNOW MAN, helping my Mom who is 96 two days a week I stay with her.Sorry about the job and their rotten attitudes.Hope you can hang in there and get the hell out in 5 years.Hope you get a couple of good snow events there.Cp and I have lucked out, we're at 600 feet and further east of you.Glad to talk to you good Buddy!

51.8 ( as Lee said, who is gonna think it's going to snow tonight), 32% (very dry) and 29.70 F.
Gotta agree with Armando.This dry air will eat up some of the precip just wetting the column. If I get 2 ,I'll be happy, 5 ecstatic!
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by le88kb on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:38 am

When will you guys have final maps ?

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:59 am

RAYNO:

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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:02 am

GFS shows warning criteria snows for LI - Giddeee up SYO and the rest of teh gang!


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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:03 am


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:07 am

Also...

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