Long Range Thread 14.0

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Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:50 am

Snow88 wrote:0z Euro for Tuesday. Sloppy phase but still a big snowstorm thanks to the tons of energy. The main low went OTS. Now if that low does phase in with all this energy, this would be a huge snowstorm.

how much of that is from fri? If 6 plus like other models tues wpuld b a mothrazilla at best on that run.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Snow88 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:52 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:0z Euro for Tuesday. Sloppy phase but still a big snowstorm thanks to the tons of energy. The main low went OTS. Now if that low does phase in with all this energy, this would be a huge snowstorm.

how much of that is from fri? If 6 plus like other models tues wpuld b a mothrazilla at best on that run.

Euro with both storms combined is around 15 inches so minus about 2-3 inches from Friday and you will still get around 12 inches. Remember, this wasn't a phase. Imagine a phase. Shocked
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:31 am

Snow88 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:0z Euro for Tuesday. Sloppy phase but still a big snowstorm thanks to the tons of energy. The main low went OTS. Now if that low does phase in with all this energy, this would be a huge snowstorm.

how much of that is from fri? If 6 plus like other models tues wpuld b a mothrazilla at best on that run.

Euro with both storms combined is around 15 inches so minus about 2-3 inches from Friday and you will still get around 12 inches. Remember, this wasn't a phase. Imagine a phase. Shocked
yeah 06z gfs was a phase looked like but off shore but improvement from 00z. Windshield wiper.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:40 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:0z Euro for Tuesday. Sloppy phase but still a big snowstorm thanks to the tons of energy. The main low went OTS. Now if that low does phase in with all this energy, this would be a huge snowstorm.

how much of that is from fri? If 6 plus like other models tues wpuld b a mothrazilla at best on that run.

Euro with both storms combined is around 15 inches so minus about 2-3 inches from Friday and you will still get around 12 inches. Remember, this wasn't a phase. Imagine a phase. Shocked
yeah 06z gfs was a phase looked like but off shore but improvement from 00z. Windshield wiper.
If you go back to a lot of the big storms in the past, you will often see the models show a more offshore track in the mid range; if not lose the storm all together, only to bring it back inside 72 hours. People need to relax. The pattern screams for a large impact storm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Snow88 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:32 am

The models seem to show the big storms a week out

2006,2010,2016
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:53 am

Snow88 wrote: The models seem to show the big storms a week out

2006,2010,2016

JB honking on this one - Joe LOVES the big ones and is rarely wrong with such dynamic storms:
He told his clients this morning for next weeks storm 12-24' from CNJ/Philly to Bastan.


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Radz on Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:56 am

amugs wrote:
Snow88 wrote: The models seem to show the big storms a week out

2006,2010,2016

JB honking on this one - Joe LOVES the big ones and is rarely wrong with such dynamic storms:
He told his clients this morning for next weeks storm 12-24'  from CNJ/Philly to Bastan.


Heard HM brushed off the Big Daddy hat, hope its not a jinx!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by dkodgis on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:12 am

Mugs, I love the news and perhaps your sense of humor (Bastan) even more.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:17 am

dkodgis wrote:Mugs, I love the news and perhaps your sense of humor (Bastan) even more.

Well you can't type in Red Sox Suck because of Franks change, which I proposed and love, thanks again Frank.

Go Yanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by SNOW MAN on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:18 am

amugs wrote:
Snow88 wrote: The models seem to show the big storms a week out

2006,2010,2016

JB honking on this one - Joe LOVES the big ones and is rarely wrong with such dynamic storms:
He told his clients this morning for next weeks storm 12-24'  from CNJ/Philly to Bastan.


WOW  12-24 FEET ! Now that's alot of snow. If we get that much I'm going to die and go to heaven. LOL !
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:22 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
amugs wrote:
Snow88 wrote: The models seem to show the big storms a week out

2006,2010,2016

JB honking on this one - Joe LOVES the big ones and is rarely wrong with such dynamic storms:
He told his clients this morning for next weeks storm 12-24'  from CNJ/Philly to Bastan.


WOW  12-24 FEET ! Now that's alot of snow. If we get that much I'm going to die and go to heaven. LOL !

That will make the blizzard of 1888 look like flurries. We need a name for a 12-24 foot storm, how about an Armageddon? Bring it on JB, the question is who will be in the scroo zone of 144 inches?
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:48 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
amugs wrote:
Snow88 wrote: The models seem to show the big storms a week out

2006,2010,2016

JB honking on this one - Joe LOVES the big ones and is rarely wrong with such dynamic storms:
He told his clients this morning for next weeks storm 12-24'  from CNJ/Philly to Bastan.


WOW  12-24 FEET ! Now that's alot of snow. If we get that much I'm going to die and go to heaven. LOL !

That will make the blizzard of 1888 look like flurries. We need a name for a 12-24 foot storm, how about an Armageddon? Bring it on JB, the question is who will be in the scroo zone of 144 inches?
pretty sure meant 12 to 24 " lol scroo zone of 144 my god I couldntbimagine.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:55 am

is it possible some models are having trouble with Tuesday is become tomorrow's storm has trending stronger and models are just having issues?
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Radz on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:25 am

RJB8525 wrote:is it possible some models are having trouble with Tuesday is become tomorrow's storm has trending stronger and models are just having issues?

i think the strength and location of Sunday's southern storm would effect Tuesday's model output more no?
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:35 am

Radz wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:is it possible some models are having trouble with Tuesday is become tomorrow's storm has trending stronger and models are just having issues?

i think the strength and location of Sunday's southern storm would effect Tuesday's model output more no?

i forgot about that 2nd wave
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Radz on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:13 am

GFS combining wave 2 and 3??
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:21 am

12z GFS


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:24 am

CMC is strait up porn for Tuesday. OMG

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:36 am

12z CMC


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by devsman on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:43 am

Is There any model not showing a HECS? Cause I haven't seen one
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:17 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:12z GFS

Ya did not go out far enough, the 12z GFS has us snowing a LONG time, heres when its done boya!

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:20 pm

12z CMC also snows bit longer nearly in line with GFS, thats a change of pace.



Wow, and remember windshield wiper I would not be surprised to see this go back to closer to inside benchmark and give us even higher totals but this is gr8.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:22 pm

Are these with tonight's snow?
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:12z CMC also snows bit longer nearly in line with GFS, thats a change of pace.



Wow, and remember windshield wiper I would not be surprised to see this go back to closer to inside benchmark and give us even higher totals but this is gr8.


You're right Jman, the GFS and the CMC boh have exactly 15 inches right over my house. You don't often see agreement by two different models to that degree this far out. It makes me think this might actually happen.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:26 pm

Yes it does include tomorrows, I am not sure how to seperate snow totals by storm if thats even possible, but next tues looks to be at least godzilla level verbatim on these runs.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

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