Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

[rb924119]

Ripped from my Facebook:

Expect slow drying and clearing through the day tomorrow for most areas. with considerable clearing overnight into Sunday morning. Sunday will feature much quieter, nicer, and seasonably cool weather, with temperatures generally in the 40s and 50s. Monday will again feature partial sunshine, mainly in the morning, before clouds begin working in ahead of our next system. Highs will again be seasonably cool and very similar to Sunday's. Monday night, showers will again return to the area, and last through much of Tuesday. Tuesday's temperatures will be quite diverse across the forecast area, as a warm front will essentially split it in half. Widespread temperatures between 60-70° are expected, with some areas even exceeding 70° for areas in and around D.C., Baltimore, Philly, Harrisburg, and Trenton. Further north, temperatures will likely struggle to breach 50°, and even remain locked in the 40s for areas such as New York City, Scranton, Binghamton, Albany, Danbury, Providence, and Red Sox Suck, with the higher terrain of south-central New England likely to not even break 40°. Clearing will take place Tuesday night and lead to a beautiful Wednesday and Thursday weather-wise, although again temperatures will be a seasonably cool (40s, 50s and 60s from north to south).

As we look to end next week, there is yet ANOTHER system that will be spreading inclement weather across our region. This one, however, has me intrigued for the potential of more widespread wintry weather (more than what this weekend's system brought, especially for portions of New York and Pennsylvania). Right now, it is looking like more of a potent cold front with gusty conditions and squalls (some of those snow for the higher terrain) behind it. However, based on the larger pattern, I would not be surprised to see this system trend colder, and am expecting that to occur to some degree based on the current projections. Now, I am not saying a full-blown snow and ice storm is going to occur, but what I AM saying is that I could see some form of accumulating wintry weather impact more of the interior of the forecast area than this current one. Updates will come as necessary for this, so stay tuned.

I actually am kind of really starting to like the look of this after some quick analysis. Gonna keep a watchful eye on it for sure.

[Math23x7]

I hate to say this but after the mild temperatures early next week, I think we endure a week and a half of more chilly, raw, damp temperatures (~April 13th-23rd). After that stretch, I think we blowtorch into the 70s and 80s. And yes, this means the weather on Easter this year will likely be crap.

And as I alluded to on OTI, since there were 298 replies on this thread and since 298 ≡ 23 (mod 25), once the next post is made, this one one be forgotten (unless of course it gets quoted).

Anyway, not looking forward to Easter this year unfortunately as it would not surprise me if it is colder than last Christmas (which had a high/low of 50/36). And the last two Easters were both cooler than their preceding Christmases (62/44 on 12/25/14, 61/42 on 4/5/15; 66/57 on 12/25/15, 55/43 on 3/27/16).

JB pointed out in the Saturday Summary video that about two weeks from, another east coast trough will probably come through around that time.

[Frank_Wx]

Next week does look mild. A trough drops into the west and heights rise over the east.



The EPS agree - and even keep it relatively mild beyond next week. I think it will be more transient in nature with more mild than cool days.

[sabamfa]

Anyone think next Friday (4.14) could be a nice day? Maybe mid-upper 60s and not raining? It's my wedding day =(

[amugs]

Congrats on the big day!
Have not looked on vacay but did notice this and interesting on the Nino front.

Major cooling off SA coast in 1.2 last in th last week.
Look at how cold the IO is. Going to interesting next 6 months on this shapes up. Look at all the cooling taking place in the PAC overall the last 7 days though it is still for Trump.majority Red as per SST, LOL!!
 

[amugs]

Anyone think next Friday (4.14) could be a nice day? Maybe mid-upper 60s and not raining? It's my wedding day =(

Gfs has a clear dry day as of its 6Z run.
NNJ is about low end 60's.

[sabamfa]

The weather gods have really smiled on me

[Frank_Wx]

Anyone think next Friday (4.14) could be a nice day? Maybe mid-upper 60s and not raining? It's my wedding day =(

I would argue perfect weather for a Wedding. Partly sunny with temps in the 60's. A big congrats to you!!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Congrats on the big day!
Have not looked on vacay but did notice this and interesting on the Nino front.

Major cooling off SA coast in 1.2 last in th last week.
Look at how cold the IO is. Going to interesting next 6 months on this shapes up. Look at all the cooling taking place in the PAC overall the last 7 days though it is still for Trump.majority Red as per SST, LOL!!
 

Statistical models are still pointing to a west-central based El Nino forming by summer.

I am for another Nino as long as it's in the weak-moderate levels.

[skinsfan1177]

Congrats on the big day!
Have not looked on vacay but did notice this and interesting on the Nino front.

Major cooling off SA coast in 1.2 last in th last week.
Look at how cold the IO is. Going to interesting next 6 months on this shapes up. Look at all the cooling taking place in the PAC overall the last 7 days though it is still for Trump.majority Red as per SST, LOL!!
 

Statistical models are still pointing to a west-central based El Nino forming by summer.

I am for another Nino as long as it's in the weak-moderate levels.

And what does this mean our area

[amugs]

Skins IF we can get a low to mod but lower mod Nino pattern as depicted by the euro through the summer into the fall it may bode well for us next winter. AND IF we can get a modoki nino where as Frank said is central to west based it allows for a trough over the east coast and BN temps. 

[amugs]

Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

I think its a bit early to get excited about how this potential Nino may behave. Yes its a good sign but the timeline your talking about is still 6+ months away. Even so, if we get a weak/moderate Modoki event that does not necessarily make a great winter. Will the PDO be positive or negative? We need to see if the Atlantic cooperates. A lot of factors at play to make or break any given winter. Just keeping it real Mugs.

[skinsfan1177]

Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

I think its a bit early to get excited about how this potential Nino may behave. Yes its a good sign but the timeline your talking about is still 6+ months away. Even so, if we get a weak/moderate Modoki event that does not necessarily make a great winter. Will the PDO be positive or negative? We need to see if the Atlantic cooperates. A lot of factors at play to make or break any given winter. Just keeping it real Mugs.

I agree but I do see how mugs gets excited because its piece of the puzzle but also agree with you as well. Many factors to consider qbo and so on

[pkmak]

Frank, I am getting married as well this Friday the 21st in Westbury NY, I am hoping to have my cocktail hour outdoors starting at 6 pm, wondering if we will get rained on?
Thanks

[amugs]

Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

I think its a bit early to get excited about how this potential Nino may behave. Yes its a good sign but the timeline your talking about is still 6+ months away. Even so, if we get a weak/moderate Modoki event that does not necessarily make a great winter. Will the PDO be positive or negative? We need to see if the Atlantic cooperates. A lot of factors at play to make or break any given winter. Just keeping it real Mugs.

Nuts i hear ya BUT this can be a driving force as we near the best season of all my weenie friend!

[skinsfan1177]

In hearing warm temps next week anyone have info. Also Sunday may not be so wet

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, I am getting married as well this Friday the 21st in Westbury NY, I am hoping to have my cocktail hour outdoors starting at 6 pm, wondering if we will get rained on?
Thanks

Oh man, it looks unsettled unfortunately. I do not think you will see much in the way of rain but it will be cool and cloudy. But most models have rain ending by 4pm

In hearing warm temps next week anyone have info. Also Sunday may not be so wet

Yes.

Check out this southerly flow that develops on the GEFS by Tuesday



Then look how the ridge amplifies more by Saturday

[pkmak]

Thanks Frank as long as it stops raining by then.

[amugs]

JUST for the weenie in all of us - T minus 6 Months and counting LOL!!

Take this with a grain of salt but would love it IF it happens!!

SST
Modoki Nino


Air Temp Anomoly


Precip

[amugs]

Looks to get warm next week here and snow in the rockies!!

[rb924119]

JUST for the weenie in all of us - T minus 6 Months and counting LOL!!

Take this with a grain of salt but would love it IF it happens!!

SST
Modoki Nino


Air Temp Anomoly


Precip

[amugs]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now look at this - IF this happened here next week people would poop their pants!

[Math23x7]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now look at this - IF this happened here next week people would poop their pants!

I beg to differ mugs.  From April to early November, I welcome those temperature anomalies with open arms, just like how I welcomed the mid 80s this past Easter Sunday.  80s and sunshine FTW!

[Frank_Wx]

I want a 2011-2012 winter repeat























...said no one ever

[frank 638]

Frank i I agree with you with the 2011-2012 winter but I want to have a 95-96 winter again because Central Park had 80 inches of snow if anyone remembers that year we had snow from late November too early April

[rb924119]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now look at this - IF this happened here next week people would poop their pants!

It's going to happen mugs. I think the end of next week could offer a borderline heat wave for some IF THE FULL POTENTIAL IS REALIZED. Check out Easter 1976; identical analog. Just saying lol with the way the Hemispheric pattern is looking to shape up during that period, we should have a huge surge of warmth through the East, and given the previous tendencies to over achieve so far this year, I think argues strongly for widespread 70s, 80s, and even approaching 90, again, if potential is maximized.

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