Long Range Thread 14.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:46 am

Next week does look mild. A trough drops into the west and heights rise over the east.



The EPS agree - and even keep it relatively mild beyond next week. I think it will be more transient in nature with more mild than cool days.


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by sabamfa on Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:43 pm

Anyone think next Friday (4.14) could be a nice day? Maybe mid-upper 60s and not raining? It's my wedding day =(

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:53 am

Congrats on the big day!
Have not looked on vacay but did notice this and interesting on the Nino front.

Major cooling off SA coast in 1.2 last in th last week.
Look at how cold the IO is. Going to interesting next 6 months on this shapes up. Look at all the cooling taking place in the PAC overall the last 7 days though it is still for Trump.majority Red as per SST, LOL!!
 

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:56 am

sabamfa wrote:Anyone think next Friday (4.14) could be a nice day? Maybe mid-upper 60s and not raining? It's my wedding day =(
Gfs has a clear dry day as of its 6Z run.
NNJ is about low end 60's.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by sabamfa on Tue Apr 11, 2017 5:56 pm

The weather gods have really smiled on me Smile

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:08 pm

sabamfa wrote:Anyone think next Friday (4.14) could be a nice day? Maybe mid-upper 60s and not raining? It's my wedding day =(

I would argue perfect weather for a Wedding. Partly sunny with temps in the 60's. A big congrats to you!!!!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:09 pm

amugs wrote:Congrats on the big day!
Have not looked on vacay but did notice this and interesting on the Nino front.

Major cooling off SA coast in 1.2 last in th last week.
Look at how cold the IO is. Going to interesting next 6 months on this shapes up. Look at all the cooling taking place in the PAC overall the last 7 days though it is still for Trump.majority Red as per SST, LOL!!
 

Statistical models are still pointing to a west-central based El Nino forming by summer.

I am for another Nino as long as it's in the weak-moderate levels.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:Congrats on the big day!
Have not looked on vacay but did notice this and interesting on the Nino front.

Major cooling off SA coast in 1.2 last in th last week.
Look at how cold the IO is. Going to interesting next 6 months on this shapes up. Look at all the cooling taking place in the PAC overall the last 7 days though it is still for Trump.majority Red as per SST, LOL!!
 

Statistical models are still pointing to a west-central based El Nino forming by summer.

I am for another Nino as long as it's in the weak-moderate levels.

And what does this mean our area
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:22 pm

Skins IF we can get a low to mod but lower mod Nino pattern as depicted by the euro through the summer into the fall it may bode well for us next winter. AND IF we can get a modoki nino where as Frank said is central to west based it allows for a trough over the east coast and BN temps. 


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:25 pm

Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:38 am

amugs wrote:Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

I think its a bit early to get excited about how this potential Nino may behave. Yes its a good sign but the timeline your talking about is still 6+ months away. Even so, if we get a weak/moderate Modoki event that does not necessarily make a great winter. Will the PDO be positive or negative? We need to see if the Atlantic cooperates. A lot of factors at play to make or break any given winter. Just keeping it real Mugs.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:06 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

I think its a bit early to get excited about how this potential Nino may behave. Yes its a good sign but the timeline your talking about is still 6+ months away. Even so, if we get a weak/moderate Modoki event that does not necessarily make a great winter. Will the PDO be positive or negative? We need to see if the Atlantic cooperates. A lot of factors at play to make or break any given winter. Just keeping it real Mugs.

I agree but I do see how mugs gets excited because its piece of the puzzle but also agree with you as well. Many factors to consider qbo and so on
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by pkmak on Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:44 am

Frank, I am getting married as well this Friday the 21st in Westbury NY, I am hoping to have my cocktail hour outdoors starting at 6 pm, wondering if we will get rained on?
Thanks

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:40 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:Nino saying a moderate to weak one incoming by late fall which would be wonderful news overall for us snow geese OR WEENIES!!

I think its a bit early to get excited about how this potential Nino may behave. Yes its a good sign but the timeline your talking about is still 6+ months away. Even so, if we get a weak/moderate Modoki event that does not necessarily make a great winter. Will the PDO be positive or negative? We need to see if the Atlantic cooperates. A lot of factors at play to make or break any given winter. Just keeping it real Mugs.

Nuts i hear ya BUT this can be a driving force as we near the best season of all my weenie friend!

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:21 am

In hearing warm temps next week anyone have info. Also Sunday may not be so wet
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:55 am

pkmak wrote:Frank, I am getting married as well this Friday the 21st in Westbury NY, I am hoping to have my cocktail hour outdoors starting at 6 pm, wondering if we will get rained on?
Thanks

Oh man, it looks unsettled unfortunately. I do not think you will see much in the way of rain but it will be cool and cloudy. But most models have rain ending by 4pm Very Happy

skinsfan1177 wrote:In hearing warm temps next week anyone have info. Also Sunday may not be so wet

Yes.

Check out this southerly flow that develops on the GEFS by Tuesday



Then look how the ridge amplifies more by Saturday




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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by pkmak on Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:57 am

Thanks Frank as long as it stops raining by then.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:15 am

JUST for the weenie in all of us - T minus 6 Months and counting LOL!!

Take this with a grain of salt but would love it IF it happens!!

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Modoki Nino


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:15 am

Looks to get warm next week here and snow in the rockies!!


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:20 pm

amugs wrote:JUST for the weenie in all of us - T minus 6 Months and counting LOL!!

Take this with a grain of salt but would love it IF it happens!!

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Modoki Nino


Air Temp Anomoly


Precip


MOG

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:11 pm

^^^^^^^^^^^^^RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now look at this - IF this happened here next week people would poop their pants!





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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:51 pm

amugs wrote:^^^^^^^^^^^^^RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now look at this - IF this happened here next week people would poop their pants!





I beg to differ mugs.  From April to early November, I welcome those temperature anomalies with open arms, just like how I welcomed the mid 80s this past Easter Sunday.  80s and sunshine FTW!

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:22 pm

I want a 2011-2012 winter repeat























...said no one ever

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by frank 638 on Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:30 pm

Frank i I agree with you with the 2011-2012 winter but I want to have a 95-96 winter again because Central Park had 80 inches of snow if anyone remembers that year we had snow from late November too early April

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:53 pm

amugs wrote:^^^^^^^^^^^^^RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now look at this - IF this happened here next week people would poop their pants!





It's going to happen mugs. I think the end of next week could offer a borderline heat wave for some IF THE FULL POTENTIAL IS REALIZED. Check out Easter 1976; identical analog. Just saying lol with the way the Hemispheric pattern is looking to shape up during that period, we should have a huge surge of warmth through the East, and given the previous tendencies to over achieve so far this year, I think argues strongly for widespread 70s, 80s, and even approaching 90, again, if potential is maximized.

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