Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

by **amugs** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:43 am

Regular NAM OH friggin MY!! Warms the coast a bit

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 24 IMG_0768.PNG.b6c2739e61dc50ebca84e745d4b3ad19

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 24 IMG_0768.PNG.b6c2739e61dc50ebca84e745d4b3ad19

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:45 am

frank 638 wrote:Even miss Amy freeze is saying this could be historical storm she feels confident of getting 10 inches of snow or more

Since NYC has had 65 storms of 10 inches or more that's not saying much. If she starts saying 20 inches or more than for NYC at least you're starting to get into historic territory especially for the middle of March.

by **Grselig** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:45 am

But is the regular NAM wrong?

by **amugs** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:46 am

Regular NAM qpf REALLY?? lmao

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 24 IMG_0769.PNG.a24bc6bed693e6d167f805c90dd5f991

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:46 am

NAM WAAAY WEST. West of GFS even and it's coming into its wheelhouse!!

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:46 am

Many others discounting the nam and saying para nam is right for what its worth.

by **Radz** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:46 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Armando Salvadore wrote:Yes, Sandy was the lowest pressure recorded at around 940mb, but i'm mainly referring to the environmental impact that this will bring from snow to coastal erosion. A phasing and interaction between three branches of the jet is absolutely no joke and very rare to come by. I'd buy a sub 987mb low either just inside the benchmark or around it, then continuing on N/NE.
well blow me down since frank has the b word on his scroll I'm go say I see bluzzard,warnings and hww for the majority of area. I get extra excited when I see them on the highway signs lol

I really can do without the high winds. Nothing worse than trying to follow a blizzard without any electricity for 24 hours. It happened to me in the SNowicane of Feb 2010 when I got 35 inches of snow and several other biggies. Not a big fan of the high winds, give me intense snow rates with a 15-25 mph wind and that will suffice.

Another thing is that with the warm temps we experienced, deciduous trees in some areas have begun to bud, added weight could be devastating with heavy snow and over performing winds...

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:49 am

I'm all for a blizzard but people can't discount or throw out models when they don't like their solutions. That is wishcasting not meteorology. A wash out is on the table now?

by **crippo84** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:50 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Many others discounting the nam and saying para nam is right for what its worth.

Sounds like a bit of wishcasting no?

by track17 Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:50 am

How about the fact though that the gfs was better on the last run and the euro is great

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:50 am

amugs wrote:Regular NAM qpf REALLY?? lmao

wth my lord. How much is snow? Bit concerned like syo said it's way west and get in range.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:52 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Many others discounting the nam and saying para nam is right for what its worth.

Skins you keep saying everything west based is wrong yet there have been several runs from several models that have been showing this. Now maybe they will be wrong but you have to start considering the possibility they won't be.

by **amugs** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:53 am

Grselig wrote:But is the regular NAM wrong?

I think so it rides the convection and frontAl boundary layer. Para NAM has been golden this winter. Mush better res and nwere algorithms to boot. Old Nam should be retired IMO.
Is it possible not going to to ally discount but it's on its own and is fighting with its newer sibling.
This is not modeling favoring just seeing this dynamic set up.

by track17 Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:53 am

But how about we consider all the models that went east which were a lot even the gfs was east of where it had been

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:53 am

Nam is frankzilla norther hudson valley like way north 36 plus. Coast sees maybe 6 to 12. Nam can def chsnge all the models have diff end results.

by **sroc4** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:54 am

crippo84 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Many others discounting the nam and saying para nam is right for what its worth.

Sounds like a bit of wishcasting no?

This isnt wish casting until it has support from other models. As of now 12K NAM is on its own with that soln. Beware the windsheild wipers. No one panic

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:55 am

10:1

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 24 Img_0714

We might see bare ground by July if this verifies!! That's easily over 3' with ratios

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:57 am

rb924119 wrote:10:1

We might see bare ground by July if this verifies!! That's easily over 3' with ratios

hoping tgat this slides east a bit then everyone will see minimum roudzilla.

by **Vinnydula** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:57 am

The Coast is not looking good

by **Taffy** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:58 am

I asked this question when we got some snow last month. I have googled it and got no real results. What is the difference between the NAM and Para Nam? If it can be nut shelled..great. If not....I'll understand.

by track17 Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:58 am

So what jman are we discounting the other models now and going with that?

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:59 am

Good lord the winds on 12km nam pushing 90 plus kts at 850mb jesus

by track17 Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:59 am

I am confused everyone was happy with the gfs this morning and the euro even the serfs now one model comes and we are discounting the other models

by **RJB8525** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:00 am

in honesty..how many runs can happen that show coastal rain that can't be thrown out? it's starting a trend..

by **amugs** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:01 am

The conflict being modelled is such that a storm of such gets pressed l, squeezed by the confluence to its North around the Delmarva more by Del heads in a NE or ENE direction. That is what the NAM is showing but runs it along the front. Speaking to a pro met says it is not modelling this feature correctly, it should be more east.
This will correct in future runs.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:01 am

track17 wrote:So what jman are we discounting the other models now and going with that?

nowhere do I see where I said that nothing is off table as sroc said do not panic still in wiper mode go see fluxes till at least tomorrow. Who knows this could end up b a total nowcast.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:01 am

amugs wrote:
Grselig wrote:But is the regular NAM wrong?
I think so it rides the convection and frontAl boundary layer. Para NAM has been golden this winter. Mush better res and nwere algorithms to boot. Old Nam should be retired IMO.
Is it possible not going to to ally discount but it's on its own and is fighting with its newer sibling.
This is not modeling favoring just seeing this dynamic set up.

Exactly amugs the para was correcting itself and is one step away from a big hit.

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