Long Range Thread 13.0

Math23x7 wrote:So much for cold weather in early February...

sroc4 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:So much for cold weather in early February...

For comparison here is the EPS for same timeframe..also 850mb Temp Anomalies.  Big difference.  I don't buy that map at all Mikey at this time.  

Math23x7 wrote:So much for cold weather in early February...

skinsfan1177 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Its not much in the way of the LR any more but we need to keep a close eye on Jan 29th-1st.  All three global models are not that far off to a decent system developing when you look at H5.  Forget the surface.  

The CMC is the closest as of now,  with most of the working parts still not yet on the playing field.  And once again with every other system with so many working parts it wouldn't take much shifting to create a nice system at the surface.  Lets look at the 12z CMC followed by 12zGFS then 00z Euro(12z not out yet as of this write up).

First important piece is cold air.  The frontal boundary that swings through around Friday set us up with fresh cold air.  All models agree on this.  

Next look out west on the map.  We have a +PNA spike agreed upon on all three global models the axis of which looks to be in decent position.  THIS IS KEY IF THIS THREAT COMES TO LIGHT.  

However, look in SE Canada at the area labeled 1.  If this upper level system centers itself a tad further SE from wherethe CMC has it verbatim it may act as a 50/50 upper level block.  

As of now the area labeled 3 associated with southern stream energy remains stung out and separate from the N energy diving in out of N Canada on the Eastern flank of the +PNA ridge.    






Here are a few scenarios we may want to see to have this all come together.
1)IF The energy labeled number 1 trends a tad further S&E it may act as a temporary block to slow down the S Branch.  If the N Branch can phase with the the S ( 2 with 3) then a slightly better positioned number 1 would leave room to raise heights out ahead of the phased energy and a LP system has room to come up the coast.  If you look at the CMC image above I drew in what that might look like.

2)  IF number 2 is a bit faster and it phases with number 3 earlier same deal there may be enough time to raise heights out ahead leaving room for a LP to come up the coast.  

Normally one might say that the pattern doesn't support this as the flow remains progressive on the modeling as of now; however, if you look a little more closely the NAO takes a little dip into negative territory between the 26th-28th before headed towards positive/neutral again by around the 29th-30th.  The last 5 runs of both GFS and European models have trended stronger and stronger with this signal.  Ive said this before and Ill say it again, when you see a -NAO headed towards positive that tends to be a signal for a storm.  This idea held true for the system on the 7th.  Coordinate that with a healthy +PNA spike which is also agreed upon across the board in the modeling, and well we have to keep our eyes out for this time frame.  

One last though about the GFS and the Euro on the 500mb images I show above.  Both models have known biases.  GFS tends to be a progressively biased model with southern stream energy, and it is currently the most progressive soln keeping the southern stream a long strung out mess.  The European model has a known bias of holding back energy in the west, which it is doing on the image above.  So if you take that into acct I expect both models to come back towards a soln in the middle similar to what we see on the CMC which increases our chances of phasing with the N branch if it can trend a tad faster, and or if we can get a transient 50/50 LP block in place.  We shall see if todays 12z Euro comes in line with what I'm thinking.  Even with model bias correction there is of course no guarantee that what I'm hoping for comes to fruition.   A seperate thread will go up immediately IF we see any positive trends over the next 24-36hrs.  

We track!!

Great write up and easily to understand

syosnow94 wrote:Last post is not surprising.

skinsfan1177 wrote:This long range is nerve racking many runs from says ago including earlier today everything looked great last runs = cliff jumping

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:This long range is nerve racking many runs from says ago including earlier today everything looked great last runs = cliff jumping

Pattern recognition vs. Model humping

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:This long range is nerve racking many runs from says ago including earlier today everything looked great last runs = cliff jumping

Pattern recognition vs. Model humping

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:This long range is nerve racking many runs from says ago including earlier today everything looked great last runs = cliff jumping

Pattern recognition vs. Model humping

Lolol Frank. I may have to change the slogan in my signature.

amugs wrote:
Frustrating at times if you live and die by each model run. Pattern recognition here peeps, lots of positives occurring at 500mb
JB and EURO ENS say we rock in FEB.

Weeks ending
Feb 3rd


850


10th




17th




I like this look a lot as many here would.

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:This long range is nerve racking many runs from says ago including earlier today everything looked great last runs = cliff jumping

Pattern recognition vs. Model humping

algae888 wrote:frank nws doesn't share our optimism with upcoming pattern...
Overall, there is good consensus in the global models through
early next week with a full latitude trough digging across
eastern North America this weekend, and a high amplitude ridge
along the west coast. This looks to be a brief change in what has
been a winter dominated by Pacific jet energy. ooking into early
next week though, this pattern returns as the upper trough lifts
out of the east and the ridge out west breaks down. Shorter term
climate signals show no hint of blocking conducive to a cold,
stormy pattern.

Armando Salvadore wrote:Great stuff Frank, some discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the stratospheric warming as the EURO is more robust with the descent 0-wind line. The consensus is, it'll become very vulnerable to continued wave driving, and if we do see an emergence of another MJO event, one would think we see a huge attack. Regardless, it's looking good for the LR i believe and that period around the 6th has my attention. Also still not letting the 30th slip passed, think we may have to just watch that.