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March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

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March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 Empty Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by algae888 Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:35 am

Nws disco...

In terms of heavy snowfall: Coupled jet structure...approaching mid
level shortwave energy...and strong frontogenetic
forcing...interacting with inflow of gulf/sub-tropical moisture
points towards strong banding and intense snowfall rates late Monday
Night through Tuesday afternoon for much of the region. The one
noticeable trend is that the storm track is slightly faster compared
to 24 hrs ago. With that said...ensemble mean qpf is around 1 to 1
1/2 inches...with some clustering of spread about 1/4 inch on either
side of this range. This is in line with operational
models...with 00z NAM/ECMWF/SBU WRF on higher end of range and
00z gfs on lower end of this range.

In terms on snow banding...SPC SREF is signaling potential for
snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour...which seems quite
reasonable based on forcing/moisture. The 3km experimental
NAM...which is on the western fringe of track guidance...is
showing potential for snowfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour.
With subtle e/w correction in storm track still
likely...confidence in location of heaviest/most persistent
banding is low to moderate at this time. If ensemble mean track
holds...far NW portions of the region may fall on the edge or
outside of heaviest snow banding.

Based on competing factors and current uncertainty...still thinking
12 to 18 inches of snowfall is a solid most likely solution for
much of the region...with locally up to 2 ft possible in
heaviest and longest duration banding. Lower amounts possible
across NW hills if eastern edge of guidance envelope
verifies...while a shift towards western members would introduce
mixing potential for far E/LI/Se CT and lower amounts. Expect
some more clarity on this in the next 24 hrs.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:08 am

Could not stay up to watch last nights EURO. Just finished looking over maps. What an epic run! 20-30 inches is just insane. The 6z NAM is even better with a general 2-3 feet across the area. This mornings GFS is an outlier right now with keeping the heaviest snow far to the south. I wonder if Frank pulls the trigger this morning and upgrades to Roidzilla status. Then again he might wait till the 12z suite comes out. Biggest model run of many a year coming up! After that, I'm riding the SR models the rest of the way.

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Post by Puff the magic dragon Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:09 am

Joe Ciofi Fios, PIX weatherman as an excellent you tube videos..Goes thru all models, and runs gives his perspective. Always liked Ciofi all they way back on Cablevison Long Island in the 80's,...Latest video 2AM.. JOE CIOFI YOU TUBE recommend.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:19 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:GGEM - I like the orange Blob. DOC, Mugs and SNOWMAN all the founding fathers win in this scenario.

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 Cmc_ma12

Well, THESE people Cp did not feel the same way about that orange blob!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqZ86pJkz-M
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Post by jake732 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:27 am

jersey shore is in a bad spot now
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:29 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Doc. I've been following the board all day. I keep trying to pull myself away, but it's like a tractor beam in Star Trek it just won't let me go. And to think I drained both of my snow blowers and put them away last week. I also took down the markers that mark my private road so I know where the edges are when I'm snow blowing. Today I took the snow blowers back out and wouldn't you know the models went sour. But it seems like things are looking up.
  So tomorrow I'll be putting the markers back out. I just hope there tall enough to see after the snow stops. LOL !!! cheers

I nominate SNOW MAN "Savior of the Winter of 2016-2017" for doing all these spring chores prematurely and single handedly changing the upper air patterns to be favorable for this huge snowstorm!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:30 am

jake732 wrote:jersey shore is in a bad spot now

Jake, don't think you will have to worry.I saw the NWS forecast and last night they had AC going to rain but today it is all snow for the whole storm.My Sister is in Ocean Grove so I always check the NJ Shore forecast as she is as bad as us Snow Weenies.
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Post by gigs68 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:31 am

What ratio can we expect from this storm?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:32 am

jake732 wrote:jersey shore is in a bad spot now

No its not did you see euro and all the other models
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Post by jake732 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:33 am

skinns, yes nam gives less then foot on high res
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:38 am

jake732 wrote:skinns, yes nam gives less then foot on high res

Your model hugging one model run all other models say 1-2ft area wide snj had issues down in AC.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:38 am

jake732 wrote:jersey shore is in a bad spot now
You will be fine. Models last night/early this morning have trended away from the "coast hugger" idea to a benchmark or just inside. Those tracks give much colder solutions. Eastern LI may have to worry about mixing issues.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:42 am

Models continue to converge on details of a strong coastal storm
that will impact the region Monday Night into Tue Night...with
lingering effects into Wednesday. This is in response to PAC energy
coming into the NW US early this morning...diving into the southern
U.S and phasing with subtropical energy Mon Night. This phased
energy then tracks up the coast around digging northern stream
energy/developing Great Lakes upper low on Tuesday...and then
eventually phases with the northern stream energy as a closed low
over NE US Tue Night/Wed. With good operational/ensemble agreement
and convergence on this scenario...confidence is increasing on a
high impact snow/wind event fro the tri-state region.

At the surface...the above scenario will allow for low pressure to
develop across the Gulf/SE US coast Monday...then intensify as
it tracks N towards the Carolina coast by Mon evening...then NE
between Montauk point and 40/70 lat/lon benchmark Tue...and near
Cape Cod by Tue evening as a mid 980 mb low. Model
spread...particularly for coastline hugging tracks has decreased
quite a bit compared to 24 hrs ago...but still subtle
difference in how close to Montauk Point low pressure tracks.
00z EPS/GEFS means keeps track closer to 40/70 benchmark which
would keeps the entire region as all snow...but based on
operations/ensemble spread the potential for some mixing across
far E LI/SE CT is in play.

In terms of heavy snowfall: Coupled jet structure...approaching mid
level shortwave energy...and strong frontogenetic
forcing...interacting with inflow of gulf/sub-tropical moisture
points towards strong banding and intense snowfall rates late Monday
Night through Tuesday afternoon for much of the region. The one
noticeable trend is that the storm track is slightly faster compared
to 24 hrs ago. With that said...ensemble mean qpf is around 1 to 1
1/2 inches...with some clustering of spread about 1/4 inch on either
side of this range. This is in line with operational
models...with 00z NAM/ECMWF/SBU WRF on higher end of range and
00z gfs on lower end of this range.

In terms on snow banding...SPC SREF is signaling potential for
snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour...which seems quite
reasonable based on forcing/moisture. The 3km experimental
NAM...which is on the western fringe of track guidance...is
showing potential for snowfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour.
With subtle e/w correction in storm track still
likely...confidence in location of heaviest/most persistent
banding is low to moderate at this time. If ensemble mean track
holds...far NW portions of the region may fall on the edge or
outside of heaviest snow banding.

Based on competing factors and current uncertainty...still thinking
12 to 18 inches of snowfall is a solid most likely solution for
much of the region...with locally up to 2 ft possible in
heaviest and longest duration banding. Lower amounts possible
across NW hills if eastern edge of guidance envelope
verifies...while a shift towards western members would introduce
mixing potential for far E/LI/Se CT and lower amounts. Expect
some more clarity on this in the next 24 hrs.

In terms of strong winds: ECMWF/GFS showing potential for
40-45kt winds at 950 HPA as far west as metro NJ Tue
morning/afternoon. As such have expanded blizzard watch westward
into metro Northeastern NJ with potential for 6hr period of
gusts to 40 mph. Winds fields strengthen up to 50-60 kt at 950
HPA for eastern LI and far SE CT at the same time...where
potential exists for high wind gusts of 50-60 mph. This mention
of potentially damaging wind gusts has been included in BSW.

Heavy snow and strongest winds should begin to wind down from sw to
ne late Tue/Tue evening as low pressure pulls east of New England.
Snow showers and gusty NW winds could lingers through Wednesday as
the phased upper low moves through.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:45 am

10 days totals holy moly mother.......March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 Ecmwf_10
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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:57 am

I'm concerned that the first early morning run has got the snow far to the south Can somebody clear this up Thx

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:58 am

Woah, Upton is bullish.

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 IMG_0299.PNG.ddd380fcb52e8b4b9e67fb09c5f5dd26

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:00 am

Euro ensembles were amazing

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 Mthk_f060_bg_US.png.648ab1cb1cc3abb9a2323aa20a799973

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 Snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr090.png.1d97f2558a616b79571c27c11ed17657

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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:01 am

Frank The whole system will be moving faster How much effect will that have on the totals?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:01 am

6z NAM broke the Internet

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 58c508879949e

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 58c508f872ef1

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:02 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:GGEM - I like the orange Blob. DOC, Mugs and SNOWMAN all the founding fathers win in this scenario.

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2  - Page 22 Cmc_ma12

Well, THESE people Cp did not feel the same way about that orange blob!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqZ86pJkz-M

Good morning Doc and CP, That clip is too funny ! lol! lol! lol!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:05 am

oldtimer wrote:Frank  The whole system will be moving faster  How much effect will that have on the totals?

We need H5 to close off at our latitude to slow the system down. Still time for that to happen.

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:08 am

docstox12 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Doc. I've been following the board all day. I keep trying to pull myself away, but it's like a tractor beam in Star Trek it just won't let me go. And to think I drained both of my snow blowers and put them away last week. I also took down the markers that mark my private road so I know where the edges are when I'm snow blowing. Today I took the snow blowers back out and wouldn't you know the models went sour. But it seems like things are looking up.
  So tomorrow I'll be putting the markers back out. I just hope there tall enough to see after the snow stops. LOL !!! cheers

I nominate SNOW MAN "Savior of the Winter of 2016-2017" for doing all these spring chores prematurely and single handedly changing the upper air patterns to be favorable for this huge snowstorm!!!!

Thank you Doc. Should I write an acceptance speech in case I win ?
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Post by Guest Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:10 am

Can somebody please explain that SREF to me. The QPF it's calling for in my area seems ludicrously high. I thought it was considered a fairly reliable model.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:20 am

Wow besides gfs 06z runs amazing. srefs? Or are they not at this time. Frank u gonna upgrade ur status level? Also they upped blizzard watches into nj.
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Post by WeatherBob Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:25 am

AccuWeather is still at 6 to 12 in with locally 12+ just west of the city.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:26 am

Thinking sr models lead the way with euro being our ceiling and sr is near on or not far off from euro. Will rations b higher than 10 to 1 even in my area?
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:28 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Doc. I've been following the board all day. I keep trying to pull myself away, but it's like a tractor beam in Star Trek it just won't let me go. And to think I drained both of my snow blowers and put them away last week. I also took down the markers that mark my private road so I know where the edges are when I'm snow blowing. Today I took the snow blowers back out and wouldn't you know the models went sour. But it seems like things are looking up.
  So tomorrow I'll be putting the markers back out. I just hope there tall enough to see after the snow stops. LOL !!! cheers

I nominate SNOW MAN "Savior of the Winter of 2016-2017" for doing all these spring chores prematurely and single handedly changing the upper air patterns to be favorable for this huge snowstorm!!!!

Thank you Doc. Should I write an acceptance speech in case I win ?

LOL, or get out of town fast if this storm busts.
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