March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:51 pm

What's the deal with the GFS being so dry? At least its an outlier in that respect.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by frank 638 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:55 pm

has anyone checked out joe cioffi first ear call snow map he has nyc all of longisland and most of jersey 1 foot plus of snow while angry ben has nyc northern long island and parts of jersey will get 1 to 2 ft of snow

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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by Armando Salvadore on Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:56 pm

Both are 12z GFS and 0Z EURO. This highlights Frank's point perfectly, and its a great point made. GFS has a later capture for 18z tuesday while the EURO captures and closes off about 6-10 hours earlier and east of the delmarva, thus you get two different SLP locations and this has big impacts. Many finer details to be worked out here!



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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:57 pm

One thing we do not lack in advance of this is a cold air mass. Just got in from a beer run. Holy moly, that wind is cold out there right now. Like early-January feel.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by TheAresian on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:12 pm

The difference at hr 72:

GFS




EURO


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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:13 pm

12z EURO becomes an eastern outlier lol. Can't make this stuff up. Rb and folks will NOT be happy to see this run.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:16 pm

I was wondering when we'd get to models showing the storm further EAST than some would like. Lol. *sigh*
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:16 pm

Well. It's further east AND less amped. I'm not happy with the 12z suite at all.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by TheAresian on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:17 pm

It doesn't look bad at hr 72. What happened between 72 and 96?
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:20 pm

TheAresian wrote:It doesn't look bad at hr 72. What happened between 72 and 96?

In short, we went from a potential HECS to a run where it's tough to find a foot for anyone...
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by lglickman1 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:22 pm

Is this thing going to end up out to sea, or too far East so that it's just a NE special?

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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:27 pm

3 more model suites to go till track is locked in. I'm somewhat bummed but not overly so yet. Let's hope it gets better
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by TheAresian on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:28 pm

Hopefully it's just the windshield wipers doing what they do and we'll correct back west next run.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:28 pm

Serioysly the euro now has a mothra?! Not go jump ship but u see we can't get too excited even with what we thpught was consistency. All are trending east now bernie said he did not like the two pieces so far apart why? Cuz up and out....
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:30 pm

TheAresian wrote:Hopefully it's just the windshield wipers doing what they do and we'll correct back west next run.
besides often the real sr models have made surprises for us so maybe this is too complex for lr models and sr will do better plus we need the energy onshore that's fot sure. When will thst b again?
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:30 pm

I cried to Bernie on Twitter; he escorted me away from the cliff's edge... affraid

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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:31 pm

frank 638 wrote:has anyone checked out joe cioffi first ear call snow map he has nyc all of longisland and most of jersey 1 foot plus of snow while angry ben has nyc northern long island and parts of jersey will get 1 to 2 ft of snow
who is angry Ben I'd like see that map.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by mikeypizano on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:32 pm

So we toss this run?
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:33 pm

Soul couldn't read that. I'm mobile. Summarize please
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by Taffy on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:33 pm

Nice Math, I like Bernie and follow him too. That makes me feel better.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Soul couldn't read that. I'm mobile. Summarize please

Bernie: No question EURO has shifted further E due to a weaker S piece. Further E not quite as strong, but strong enuf.nice track for I95. no mixing

Me: @AccuRayno Yeah but it's a much weaker system on that run as well. I'd rather have a little mixing in NYC with stronger storm!

Bernie: @MrMathieuBlue . it's strong enuf and a very favorable track.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:37 pm

I found angry ben.me likey his map but who is he?
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by track17 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Can we post the maps ?

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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by mikeypizano on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:40 pm

Jmanlu angry Ben is friends with Joe Cioffi, that's all I know for sure.
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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

Post by frank 638 on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:41 pm

jmanley just go to joe cioffi facebook he does explain every thing abouth this storm .

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Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

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