March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

skinsfan1177 wrote:Check out 3k Nan snow map

ARE YOU KIDDING ME????? THIS MAP HAS A SNOW HOLE LITERALLY OVER MY APARTMENT IN SOUTHWESTERN DUTCHESS!!!! I AM THROWING THIS MODEL OUT!!! ITS LOST ahahahahaha

Frank_Wx wrote:This is 10:1

Southern westchester, or general area just north of NYC (I know you do not like IMBY questions, sorry) but will rations be any higher than 10:1 or will those insane winds keep it at 10:1? Also how confident are you that winds will reach or exceed 60mph gusts in your red area? What do u think ceiling is?

Check this out even with a mix of 0.5 this is still 20 inches for my area

Madonne...

Hey all, was out in Commack all day and trying to catch up. LIE already brined, not sure if that will help with all the snow that's coming. Saw lots of equipment being moved around in NYC and LI. Great job everyone for your posting of maps and thoughts on this beast. This is going to be something for sure. No one should be going anywhere Tuesday as snowfall rates and winds will make travel next to impossible. It is going to be fun running outside and measuring every hour and clearing my board to verify those insane snowfall rates! Glad that we KNOW this storm is coming and we don't have to wait for within 24 hours to see if it is going ots! Have a good night all, we're going to need our rest for the storm!

It's been 100 years + since we saw this kind of storm in March. Please all take a second to recognize that.

Frank_Wx wrote:This is 10:1

Insane.

wonder what Crapola will show in Red Sox Suck? LOL

SoulSingMG wrote:It's been 100 years + since we saw this kind of storm in March. Please all take a second to recognize that.

It has a shot

20 Largest March 1 thru April
Snowstorms NYC
Rank.Amount..Date
1……21.0……..March 12-14, 1888
2……18.1……..March 7-8, 1941
3……14.5….....March 3-4, 1960
4……14.5….....March 1-2, 1914
5……12.0……..March 15-16, 1896
6……11.8…..…March 19-20, 1958
7……11.6……..March 18-19, 1956
8……10.6….....March 13-14, 1993
9……10.2……..April 3-4, 1915
10…..10.0…….April 13, 1875
11…..10.0……..March 2, 1896
12…..9.6……...April 6, 1982
13…..9.4……...Feb,28-March 1, 1949
14…..9.0……...March 22, 1967
15…..9.0……...March 4, 1893
16…..8.6……...March 5, 1981
17…..8.5…..….April 1, 1924
18…..8.3……...March 1-2, 20009
19…..8.0……...March 17-18, 1892
20…..7.7……...March 6-7, 1915

925mb winds

I imagine with those type of winds MTA will be shutdown, at least the above ground trains, no way they can run with that kinda wind hitting them. I believe its 35mph sustained to shutdown. Bridges too, tomorrow may be a very rush rush tell everybody states emergency I could see too.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:This is 10:1

Southern westchester, or general area just north of NYC (I know you do not like IMBY questions, sorry) but will rations be any higher than 10:1 or will those insane winds keep it at 10:1? Also how confident are you that winds will reach or exceed 60mph gusts in your red area? What do u think ceiling is?

.

It'll probably start relatively high, but drop quickly as the system moves in because of increased wind and a warming profile such that it ends up near 10:1, maybe even slightly less for some. Fornyou, 10:1 for the height sounds about right to me.

Very quick moving on the NAM though

MADDONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This storm got some HUGE STUGOTS!!!!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Very quick moving on the NAM though

That's why I'm not really not buying totals in excess of 2'. I think most end up 16-20", with some reaching 24" in the bands right now.

rb, are you buying the 3k NAM snow totals or do they seem skewed one way or the other to you?

Hey Frank , what is the timing of the storm

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Very quick moving on the NAM though

That's why I'm not really not buying totals in excess of 2'. I think most end up 16-20", with some reaching 24" in the bands right now.

You may be right. Doesn't look like H5 will close off. Really curious to see if EURO goes fujiwhara on us again

skinsfan1177 wrote:Check this out even with a mix of 0.5 this is still 20 inches for my area

this is also 3PM Tuesday, it may still be coming down in many places.

TheAresian wrote:rb, are you buying the 3k NAM snow totals or do they seem skewed one way or the other to you?

at 10:1 they're reasonable to me, but knowing ratios will be significantly higher than that northwest of I-95 and doing the math in my head makes me think they're a bit high based on the speed of the system and duration of the heavy snow. That said, with something like this, to completely rule anything out is foolish. I just think it's going to move too fast for the snowfall rates to hang around long enough to make up for the shorter duration and really ramp up these numbers beyond 20" or so, except in the heaviest bands. But that's just me lol

00z RGEM snow map

just put it out there on my fb page hopefully some people at my job will spread the word

Uhm...

03/12/2017 - Due to NCEP bandwidth issues, some model runs may be processed slower than normal or skipped entirely.

Holly crap Lonnie's sleeves are so rolled up he looks like he's wearing a sleeveless shirt LOL !!!

You guys should see the 3k NAM Crapola totals. There would be records set.

Frank_Wx wrote:Uhm...

03/12/2017 - Due to NCEP bandwidth issues, some model runs may be processed slower than normal or skipped entirely.

OHHHH GOODDDDDDDD!!!!!

OK GUYS YOURE ON YOUR OWN GOOD LUCK AND BEST WISHES ahahahahahahaha basically what they're saying lmfaoooooo

Apparently the GFS is so bad they decided it wasn't worth doing at all.

rb924119 wrote:I'm stuck lmao the model servers must have crashed ahahaha

I posted this back on page four of this thread...didn't think it was real though ahahaha