March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:24 am

Buongiorno Ragazzi -

As mentioned I will be traveling this weekend. Leaving tomorrow for Dallas and not returning until Monday evening. Models are hinting at an inverted trough setting up on Saturday and bringing moderate snow to parts of the area late that evening or early Sunday morning. I placed snow confidence level at 70% this morning for at least 1" of snow for CPK. IVT are VERY difficult to predict and surface temps appear to be above freezing from NYC on south and east.

NAM Model valid 11pm Saturday and 1am Sunday





That shows 4 to 8 inches of snow for parts of NNJ, NEPA, N&W of NYC. Likely 3-6 inches for NYC, and 2-4 inches for people to the south. The NAM is quite bullish with this event.

EURO Model valid 1am and 5am Sunday





EURO is also quite bullish so there is reason to take this event seriously.



The 500mb low is passing OVER or JUST north of our area. I would feel more confident in a significant accumulation if this low tracked south of our area.



There's lots of PVA within the trough though, and it does go negative at one point overnight Saturday. This is why I believe this event is more of an IVT.

Upton seems to agree:

Upton wrote:Models agree that low pressure dives down through the Great Lakes
Region during Saturday with a secondary low pressure development
which emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night. This
coastal low eventually tracks northeast, passing to the southeast of
the 40N/70W benchmark during Sunday. An inverted trough potentially
shifts through the CWA during Saturday night before the storm pulls
away. This could potentially serve as a focus of enhanced PCPN as an
upper trough/shortwave interacts with it. As usually the case, its
very difficult this far out to say with much confidence if/where the
inverted trough/enhanced PCPN actually occurs. In any case, there is
enough confidence to go with likely PoPs across the area with this
setup. PCPN would become likely west to east as Saturday progresses,
then tapers off Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Regarding PCPN type, there is no apparent elevated warm layer being
progged by any of the models, so PCPN type would therefore be
dependent on the boundary layer thermal profile and likely not
include sleet or freezing rain. Expecting and all-snow event only
for the northern fringe zones of the CWA with mixed rain and snow or
mainly rain farther south. Currently have a forecast of 1-3 inches
of snowfall north of the city, and 1 inch or less for Long Island,

I will try and provide today's models if I have time. I will leave it up to the other forecasters of this board to track this event. I will release my official forecast for this event, without a map, later this afternoon.





_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17016
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:47 am

Nice write up Frank. I'm in Savannah Georgia and on mobile only. Supposed to fly home as this event is set to unfold. It would be a shame if I get stuck down here for an additional day.
told ya

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4785
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:28 am

SREFS for this upcoming storm -we'll see


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:36 am

NNJ sitting pretty here at this point - time will tell - we shifted 100 mile south sop far if this continues it will be an ACY event LOL

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by TheAresian on Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:47 am

If it helps any, I'll ask the Snow Gods to send all of the snow for far northwest down your way.
avatar
TheAresian
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 569
Join date : 2014-03-07
Location : Painted Post NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:40 am

this should be interesting. right now TWC has:

Friday night: Snow showers late

Saturday: Rain/snow  1-3"

Saturday night: Snow 1-3"

to be continued.........

Enjoy the lone star state, get some good BBQ
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1655
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by billg315 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:12 am

I'm at a wedding Saturday night and staying at a hotel there. As long at they plow the parking lot Sunday morning I'll be ok I suppose.
avatar
billg315
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1229
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 43
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:32 am

12z NAM has the IVT over NNJ/NYC/LI


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17016
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:56 am

GFS sniffin this out


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:08 pm


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:08 pm

wow that 7" spot lol
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1655
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by jimv45 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:21 pm

if the gfs is right that put a nice 4-6 in my are of southern dutchess boy no more room after the 23 but the snow nut in me will take it.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 680
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:46 pm

7 inch spot almost right over me. Not expecting it just because of the unpredictability of events like this IVTs and the like but certainly won't complain if it happens. The more snow the merrier.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 4806
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 55
Location : OTI - Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by jimv45 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:59 pm

yea cp 4-7 in our area is nothing to complain about that's for sure. If it happens.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 680
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:01 pm

Since Frank will be in Dallas this weekend, I now know that the inverted trough will set up right over Cranford. Epic Godzilla incoming for that neighborhood! Razz

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1678
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:25 pm

Interesting

UKIE

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:04 pm

amugs wrote:Interesting

UKIE

How much of it is snow though?

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1678
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:24 pm

Math for u don't me for e in NNJ it is all snow

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:09 pm

NAM'S COMING IN HOT AND HEAVY

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:10 pm

Mobile will post in a few

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by frank 638 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:13 pm

Lee has his first early call so far he has everyone for 1 to 3 inches

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1303
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 34
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:17 pm

frank 638 wrote:Lee has his first early call so far he has everyone for 1 to 3 inches
He's humpin' the EURO and REG NAM - GFS and PARA and HI RES NAMS are not saying that - the battle again
This would be a warning type of snow for a good portion if it verifies - falls from 7PMish till 6AMish Saturday night into Sunday morning




Reg NAM


Off of PW

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by frank 638 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:18 pm

Thanks amugz I will take it happy with that so far bring on the snow

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1303
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 34
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:21 pm

Watch the city get more snow from this than on Tuesday from the "blizzzzzzard"... Basketball
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1998
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:23 pm

In all honesty, I think eastern LI gets the jackpot from this inverted trough. So Scott, this is your storm Wink

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1678
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum