April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

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April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:37 am

This is at least worth looking at as we get closer. Hyde, Jim and others in the Mid HV may be getting some frozen precip from this.

I'll be copying Al's maps from this morning into this thread.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:45 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:41 am

Interesting.

A lot of this especially in the LHV is probably sleet or freezing rain but I'm all in for one more event. An April snow makes it easier to trend out of my beloved winter.



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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by dkodgis on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:17 am

If we have snow on April 1 and I hope we do, drinks are on me at my house.

April 1 is also my wedding anniversary. 16 years. It snowed then too. So it is fitting if it snows!
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:27 am


If we get this down here you get more up there - looks like a HV special.
My questions where teh H was this set up in Feb or early March??

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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:27 am


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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:44 am

dkodgis wrote:If we have snow on April 1 and I hope we do, drinks are on me at my house.

April 1 is also my wedding anniversary.  16 years. It snowed then too. So it is fitting if it snows!

It's always fitting if it snows Damian, I'll take snow on the fourth of July.

The April 1 storm I think in 1997 we had 14 heavy wet inches and I lost an apple tree in the back to the weight of the snow. I'm not sure if that's the same storm you're referring to.
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:46 am

Update below from Upton:

Across interior portions of NE NJ/Lower Hud Valley/Southern
CT...thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to
complicate the forecast late Tonight through Friday Night. Storm
track will be critical...with a farther south track favoring
cooler and more wintry mix potential...while a track over NYC/LI
favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain
rain.

At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/Fri am...evap cooling
will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and
snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming
aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With
that said...March boundary layer warming should allow for precip
in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon...except
elevations above 750-1000 ft or so.

Late Fri Aft into Fri night...dynamics increase as closed low energy
approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area
to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time
low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary
layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic
processes can overcome warming aloft from se llj to bring a
period of heavier sleet...possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent
exceedance snow/sleet forecast covers this low potential for a
period of complete changeover to wintry precip. Another concern
is that temperatures across interior...particularly higher
elevations...could haver around/drop to freezing Fri
night...introducing the potential for freezing rain. Marginal
temp profiles will not support efficient icing...but the threat
of hazardous travel from light icing exists.
Upton below from Upton:

Based on above...this is a low confidence snow/sleet accum
forecast for the interior. At this point the most likely outcome
is varying combinations of mixed precip during the period with
a light slushy accum of sleet/wet snow/fzra across the
interior...especially elevations above 750-1000 ft...by the
time everything winds down Sat am.
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:49 am

amugs wrote:
If we get this down here you get more up there - looks like a HV special.
My questions where teh H was this set up in Feb or early March??

Mugs:

Aint it the truth. This one and it looks like the next two after it would have been a lot of fun 2-4 weeks ago.
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:42 pm

If you're in the HV don't look at this and assume it's snow because for the most part it's sleet. Pretty to look at and dream though.


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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by Snow88 on Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:01 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:
If we get this down here you get more up there - looks like a HV special.
My questions where teh H was this set up in Feb or early March??

Mugs:

Aint it the truth. This one and it looks like the next two after it would have been a lot of fun 2-4 weeks ago.

It still can snow in April Laughing
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:13 pm

Snow88 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:
If we get this down here you get more up there - looks like a HV special.
My questions where teh H was this set up in Feb or early March??

Mugs:

Aint it the truth. This one and it looks like the next two after it would have been a lot of fun 2-4 weeks ago.

It still can snow in April Laughing

I'm with you and I've seen it many times, this one just doesn't look to be in the cards, even for up here. Looks like sleet and freezing rain for any frozen precip that falls.
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by hyde345 on Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:55 pm

Tough call in the HV. Looks like a sleet and rain mix by me with a little snow too. NWS Albany only calling for about an inch of sleet/snow by me in Dutchess but they expect 3-6 in Albany. It's going to be nasty friday and friday night. Elevation may help some places get some decent snows.
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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:19 pm

Jim Witt likes the 5th to 12th time frame for a game ending storm. Said in his LR forecast he sees the 11-12 for a coastal  going from rain to heavy wet snow.

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Re: April Fools storm, HV rain? sleet? Snow??

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:44 pm

33.1 and rain still. Oh the pain.
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