Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
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1190ftalt
Radz
algae888
EnyapWeather
docstox12
rb924119
skinsfan1177
weatherwatchermom
frank 638
aiannone
amugs
Dunnzoo
dkodgis
New Yorker 234
Math23x7
jmanley32
ak926
sroc4
22 posters
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Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Ask and yee shall receive Skins. Not a drop of rain for most of LI all friggin day
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
.97 in today in thunderstorms with pea size hail !
ak926- Posts : 117
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Thornwood, NY not to far NE of white plains had 1.75 inch hail!! And that was from a trained spotter holy crap!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
In terms of weather conditions this month, the one day I am really focused on is Monday, August 21st. If we had no cloud cover between 1:23 PM and 4 PM in NYC that day that would be nice. Why? That's when the solar eclipse will take place. It will hit its peak at 2:44 when about 70% of the sun will be obscured by the moon. Of course, if you would like to experience a total solar eclipse, you would need to be in the narrow path from Oregon to South Carolina, though the best bet is Western Kentucky where if the total solar eclipse will last for two minutes and forty seconds. Concerned about the clouds that day.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Good Morning!
Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.
I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.
Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.
I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.
New Yorker 234- Posts : 32
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
New Yorker 234 wrote:Good Morning!
Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.
I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.
The classic thunderstorm you are referring involves the day time heating then the instability created as the sun begins to go down. However; thunderstorms can occur any time of day or night. In this case dew points, (a measure/indicator of how much moisture the atmosphere can hold )( THE HIGHER THE DEW POINT THE MORE POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN THE ATMOSPHERE), are in the low 70's indicating a lot of potential energy. All it takes is a trigger like a shortwave to creat instability and lift in the atmosphere. As soon as the trigger creates lift the storms fire up and off you go.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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New Yorker 234- Posts : 32
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Light rain here at 5 am this morning. A spritz, really. I see the next ten days are meh in the upper 70's. Not pool weather.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Nice thunderstorm rolled through here early this morning, dropped .5" of rain. So muggy now, can't wait to get some sun to help dry things out.
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
http://www.iweathernet.com/days-until/number-of-days-until-fall-count-down
Nice fall countdown widget
Nice fall countdown widget
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Fall like day tomorrow with rain and rawness.
Looks like bulk of rain stays into the Philly and SNJ region but nonetheless temps hanging around 70*if lucky GFS forecastimg highs in mid to upper 60's
Looks like bulk of rain stays into the Philly and SNJ region but nonetheless temps hanging around 70*if lucky GFS forecastimg highs in mid to upper 60's
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
NWS Upton:
Right now, have
gone with consistency with most models showing a track right
across Long Island. This may allow for some instability and
potentially higher rainfall totals in any thunderstorms that can
develop. With the warm front across the area and strong
directional and speed shear, the coastal areas of NYC and Long
Island will need to be monitored closely as the warm ocean
waters may locally support cells capable of rotation and
perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado.
Right now, have
gone with consistency with most models showing a track right
across Long Island. This may allow for some instability and
potentially higher rainfall totals in any thunderstorms that can
develop. With the warm front across the area and strong
directional and speed shear, the coastal areas of NYC and Long
Island will need to be monitored closely as the warm ocean
waters may locally support cells capable of rotation and
perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
0.60 in of rain i cant believe it already aug and it is nasty out there raw chilly rainy .is this summer or fall
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
64* in aug wow what is next
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
hey what do you guys see the weekend weather doing? it is conflicting on tv and web...tx
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
This weather just stinks at hotel nice outdoor pool wish could go out in sun.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
weatherwatchermom wrote:hey what do you guys see the weekend weather doing? it is conflicting on tv and web...tx
Looks a little unsettled, maybe a shower Saturday morning and chance of a t-storm Sunday, but nothing to cancel plans over as I see it....
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
I here euro weeklies look great
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great
Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
JB pointed this out today. GFS vs Euro regarding the MJO in the upcoming 2 weeks. Quite the contrast. Another GFS Euro battle
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
amugs wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great
Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!
The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
sroc4 wrote:JB pointed this out today. GFS vs Euro regarding the MJO in the upcoming 2 weeks. Quite the contrast. Another GFS Euro battle
And people wonder why the Euro is generally better.........if you can't get the energy source FOR THE GLOBE correct, how can you expect to get anything else right??
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great
Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!
The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans
Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
Oo lol whoops ahahaa my bad, y'all!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations
amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great
Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!
The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans
Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.
Def conflicting data Mugs regarding enso, but Ill tell you what. The actual data, SST and SOI, has been screaming at another Nina. Looking at the MSLP anomaly forecasts over the next 2 weeks the SOI looks to continue Mod-strong positive. If that keeps up a La Nina is destined. Latest ONI is down as well.
We are def in mostly neutral conditions, but we shall see going forward what the Sept/Oct/Nov time frame yields. The forecasts and current conditions are nothing like what was predicted back in the spring however. We should have been in the weak El Nino by now and that clearly is not the case.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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