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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:59 am

algae888 wrote:Hey Scott doing well this summer has been fantastic so far not too much heat. I do feel that the trough will not be as Progressive as one might think. It enters our area at hour 150 on the operational and ensembles and does not exit until hour 240. It really digs as the pattern looks to amplify over the Eastern two-thirds of the country as a block looks to form near Green land and a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska. The trough could not come at a worse time as 91 l in 92 l if developed would be near our latitude and longitude att. And have nowhere to go but out to sea. We shall see.

Hey Al. As of now I would have to agree with you regarding the set up with the rinse wash repeat strong progressive long wave troughs into the east.  However; 91 and 92L will not be affected by that trough you mention.  It would be 93L or whatever it is going to be designated that will likely.  As you can see by the MSLP anomaly map below 91L will be in the Caribbean by Monday and 92L will be just N of the greater Antilles.  Mean while 93L is hanging back not quite to 60w longitude yet.

 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Mslpa_10

As you can see by the next two maps, 500mb at the same time frame, the ridge is still in control and the steering flow continues west for 92L towards SE Fla and 91L looks to cont west somewhere near the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually comes off the W Mexican coast and becomes a player in the SE Pac. There is an ULL trough feature in the GOM around this time frame that may be influential but we shall see.  Both of these two systems cont to show anticyclonic flow over top throughout this time frame.  Since this is still 4 days out, we need to cont to monitor both of these systems, because if they spin up that could change everything from there in the upper patterns.  The incoming trough you mention could come into play for these two; more so 92L.  They will be far enough west to potentially affect the US coast from the GOM to the SE coast.  

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_28
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_29

At this same time frame take a look at 300mb.  There is an ULL over the vicinity of where 93L would be that is likely creating convergence aloft over top of 93L.  Likely the reason the models cont to back down on how quickly and how strong that system gets going.  99L/Gert was similarly affected in this same geographic area by an ULL.  It wasn't until that ULL broke down that 99L quickly became developed and Gert.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_30

Bottome line is the Upper level pattern conts to evolve.  Here is the differences at 500mb by the euro two days ago vs today for a week from now.  Obs the sharpness of the trough and intensity of the system are drastically different.  

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_33
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_32

I think the key time frame for this system will be around Tuesday of next week. (see below) Since the system has trended weaker when it reaches this longitude.  Instead of a strong developed trop system that can recurve and bull its way through the weakness, if the weak trough I have labeled conts to trend weaker, faster, and or further N, then that would mean the ridging would be stronger and further N into the area I have circled "possibly" resulting in a track a tad further S and or more time to cont more west instead of NW, N, then NE once the next long wave trough digs(which recall has trended a bit weaker as indicated above).  


2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_35
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Ecmwf_36


Again for now Al I completely agree the pattern suggests a harmless recurve for 93L, but there are a few outs for a further west soln.  91L and 92L need to monitored closely because any significant changes in their forecasts could have implications down the road. For now that too is unlikely but again with 4days to go I will give it a few more days before I buy into any one soln on a model.

We track!!  What a Face

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:23 am

Looks like 91L will become at least a depression now 80/90%. 92L still in the middle and not yet designated 93L in the 5 day 40% chance. That's a lot going on for mid August regardless of where these rnd up. I can't imagine Sept and oct.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:31 am

Also been taking note that since the upgrade the cmc is doing pretty well. Was pretty close with Gert. 09z run is a bit concerning with 92L for either fl or the ec on cmc it does still blow storms up but it did do with Gert while others did not and in the end Gert became our 1st cat 2. We track lots of waiting and watching.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:41 pm

Looks like at the next update 91L will be upgraded to at least TD 9 as a closed LLC is noted by the current recon.  Possibly TS Harvey.  It looks like there are at least a small area of 40Kt winds

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Recon_AF303-0109A-INVEST

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:47 pm

And there you have it. TS Harvey

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Two_atl_0d0


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:12 pm

ironic gfs does nada with 92l and 93l and dissipates harvey very quickly. kinda a 180 from what it was doing earlier. Now the CMC is either onto something or back to its old self. maybe some cmc got fed to the gfs lol. Euro not enthused at all. i know we cant take models verbatim but they seem to wanna keep it quiet.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:ironic gfs does nada with 92l and 93l and dissipates harvey very quickly. kinda a 180 from what it was doing earlier. Now the CMC is either onto something or back to its old self. maybe some cmc got fed to the gfs lol. Euro not enthused at all. i know we cant take models verbatim but they seem to wanna keep it quiet.

We cant sleep on 92L yet. It will encounter some intense shear over the next few days but if it can survive that it still has a chance in close to rapidly develop. Ill try and do a write up on that tomorrow

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:52 pm

new data will be inputed into tonigghts 00z runs regarding Harvey. So we shall see if it alters outcomes in the morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:06 pm

92L now is at high chance of development so no def can't sleep on it. But like Al and u said the setup likely will lead to a recurve but u also said there's ways it could be a threat right? Also in the hardcore tropics forums the illusive I storm has often made impact on the us and it would be it's next. Examples ike and Irene. Of course I think that's kind of a superstition.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:37 am

Cmc has a Sandy sized storm that somewhat similarly retrogrades into new endland it's huge. What do you all think of cmc since the upgrade? Certainly diff than gfs which does nothing.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:Cmc has a Sandy sized storm that somewhat similarly retrogrades into new endland it's huge. What do you all think of cmc since the upgrade? Certainly diff than gfs which does nothing.

I like the look of the CMC H5 much better than the GFS and the EURO so far, especially tonight's 00z (also biased because it's much closer to my ideas than the others lol)

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:59 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cmc has a Sandy sized storm that somewhat similarly retrogrades into new endland it's huge. What do you all think of cmc since the upgrade? Certainly diff than gfs which does nothing.

I like the look of the CMC H5 much better than the GFS and the EURO so far, especially tonight's 00z (also biased because it's much closer to my ideas than the others lol)
imagine another Sandy and in August with trees full bloom that would be really bad. Cmc seems to be doing better.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:19 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cmc has a Sandy sized storm that somewhat similarly retrogrades into new endland it's huge. What do you all think of cmc since the upgrade? Certainly diff than gfs which does nothing.

I like the look of the CMC H5 much better than the GFS and the EURO so far, especially tonight's 00z (also biased because it's much closer to my ideas than the others lol)


Up until this point I have not, and usually don't, look at the CMC, but after you and the Jman talking about I decided to look.  And I have to say its very interesting.  It appears to me, and correct me if I'm wrong Ray, but what it does to 92L, developing it over the SE coast and brings it up is mostly due to what it does to the system I have been calling 93L to the east (designated by yellow X around 30w)?

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Two_atl_2d0

By developing what would be 93L we get a feed back such that it pumps the Atlantic ridge slowing down the mean flow.  The trough split we've mentioned before occurs allowing 92L to be captured leading to a means by which a developed 92L off the SE coast would do what the CMC shows.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Gem_z510
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Gem_z511
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Gem_z512

The other part of this is what it does with Harvey.  All other guidance has Harvey headed for SAmer/Yucatan whereas CMC brings it into the GOM.  The upper level pattern is quite diff in an around the GOM on the CMC compared to all other guidance at the moment the details of which I wont get into.  

The big question is this soln feasible?  The easy answer is yes its def feasible, but is it likely.  So the big keys will be can 92L survive the intense shear it is currently experiencing and will experience over the next 2-3days at least?  Will that shear let up and what do the upper levels look like once it gets off the SE coast?  The system to the east that still is not designated an invest but I will call 93L what happens to it.  It appears now that it is def destined to recurve, but this actually MUST happen in order to achieve what the CMC is showing.  Its intensity is the ultimate key.  If the models are wrong and it ends up rapidly developing like the CMC shows then the latent heat release into the upper level pattern can def lead to the feed back for which pumps that Atlantic ridge as indicated by the MC soln above and thee entire upper level pattern changes off the SE coast where the wave that is 92L will be.

As of now I will say what the GFS and Euro does with the upper pattern above where 93L would be as it recurves does not appear conducive for intensification, but Both models grossly underestimated the rapid intensification of Gert before her recurvature.  Again what happens to 93L as well as the ultimate strength and track of Harvey will be key if 92L is a true threat or not.  Its very complex set up, so even though GFS AND Euro do not show it we MUST watch closely.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:39 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cmc has a Sandy sized storm that somewhat similarly retrogrades into new endland it's huge. What do you all think of cmc since the upgrade? Certainly diff than gfs which does nothing.

I like the look of the CMC H5 much better than the GFS and the EURO so far, especially tonight's 00z (also biased because it's much closer to my ideas than the others lol)


Up until this point I have not, and usually don't, look at the CMC, but after you and the Jman talking about I decided to look.  And I have to say its very interesting.  It appears to me, and correct me if I'm wrong Ray, but what it does to 92L, developing it over the SE coast and brings it up is mostly due to what it does to the system I have been calling 93L to the east (designated by yellow X around 30w)?

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Two_atl_2d0

By developing what would be 93L we get a feed back such that it pumps the Atlantic ridge slowing down the mean flow.  The trough split we've mentioned before occurs allowing 92L to be captured leading to a means by which a developed 92L off the SE coast would do what the CMC shows.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Gem_z510
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Gem_z511
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Gem_z512

The other part of this is what it does with Harvey.  All other guidance has Harvey headed for SAmer/Yucatan whereas CMC brings it into the GOM.  The upper level pattern is quite diff in an around the GOM on the CMC compared to all other guidance at the moment the details of which I wont get into.  

The big question is this soln feasible?  The easy answer is yes its def feasible, but is it likely.  So the big keys will be can 92L survive the intense shear it is currently experiencing and will experience over the next 2-3days at least?  Will that shear let up and what do the upper levels look like once it gets off the SE coast?  The system to the east that still is not designated an invest but I will call 93L what happens to it.  It appears now that it is def destined to recurve, but this actually MUST happen in order to achieve what the CMC is showing.  Its intensity is the ultimate key.  If the models are wrong and it ends up rapidly developing like the CMC shows then the latent heat release into the upper level pattern can def lead to the feed back for which pumps that Atlantic ridge as indicated by the MC soln above and thee entire upper level pattern changes off the SE coast where the wave that is 92L will be.

As of now I will say what the GFS and Euro does with the upper pattern above where 93L would be as it recurves does not appear conducive for intensification, but Both models grossly underestimated the rapid intensification of Gert before her recurvature.  Again what happens to 93L as well as the ultimate strength and track of Harvey will be key if 92L is a true threat or not.  Its very complex set up, so even though GFS AND Euro do not show it we MUST watch closely.
I wasn't sure I'd get it right but I saw that 93l was pushing 92l and the trough split so glad to know I read that right in basic sense. What makes the cmc make it such a enormous storm? Is it hybrid? Of course this is just what's shown on the cmc which has as u said not been a model we trust all that much but maybe the upgrade made it better for tropics. Cmc had Gert right pretty much when gfs and euro missed it's intensity. We track.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:40 pm

12z cmc holds suit to a monster storm effecting the area in 8 to 10 days. I actually retrogrades a bit but stays hugging coast close call enough to give NYC area and east at least ts conditions. So either cmc is on to something or it's on drugs and will change in the next several days. Well it will change but how drastically. If gfs and euro decide start show same then we may need to b more concerned. I'd really like rb to explain why he feels h5 is in more his favor for cmc. I know ur busy but maybe if this continues on cmc?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:49 pm

Scott, yet again you read my mind lmao that is PRECISELY why it does that. However, there are other ways for this type of solution to occur, without developing 93L.

Jman, tomorrow evening I'm getting a new mouse after work and will be putting all of my thoughts together in what will hopefully be a coherent video lmao still "liking" where we stand right now with modeling, though, just as a precursor haha

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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:20 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 20861710

12z CMC still has it lol

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:43 pm

aiannone wrote:2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 20861710

12z CMC still has it lol

oh boy....listen a little confused..which wave is this one? tia
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:Scott, yet again you read my mind lmao that is PRECISELY why it does that. However, there are other ways for this type of solution to occur, without developing 93L.

Jman, tomorrow evening I'm getting a new mouse after work and will be putting all of my thoughts together in what will hopefully be a coherent video lmao still "liking" where we stand right now with modeling, though, just as a precursor haha
gfs and euro or the cmc?
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Post by aiannone Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:07 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:


oh boy....listen a little confused..which wave is this one? tia

The one behind Harvey

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:08 pm

Both waves were lowered and they say 92l doesn't have much a chance but I guess we have see after and if it survives through the area of shear is that correct?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:46 pm

All three, Jman, though I'm referencing more the ensembles than the individual operational runs. And yes, I think it's very similar to Gert. Nothing, then boom. I truly think the models are having a hard time because these systems are so small and concentrated, relatively speaking, that they essentially get "lost in the sauce" so to speak. Check out the Euro now with Harvey......Cat 3 into the Gulf Coast. Why? Because I think it's feeling the synoptic pattern better now that the system is getting closer to the mainland, though I'll admit I was at work and haven't looked at anything in detail. Look at Franklin. Almost identical evolution in reality and modeling; nothing until it got into the western Caribbean, then boom.

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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:52 pm

rb924119 wrote:All three, Jman, though I'm referencing more the ensembles than the individual operational runs. And yes, I think it's very similar to Gert. Nothing, then boom. I truly think the models are having a hard time because these systems are so small and concentrated, relatively speaking, that they essentially get "lost in the sauce" so to speak. Check out the Euro now with Harvey......Cat 3 into the Gulf Coast. Why? Because I think it's feeling the synoptic pattern better now that the system is getting closer to the mainland, though I'll admit I was at work and haven't looked at anything in detail. Look at Franklin. Almost identical evolution in reality and modeling; nothing until it got into the western Caribbean, then boom.
Rb I'm a little confused unless I'm looking at the wrong Maps the Euro does not have any cat 3 storm on it
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Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:19 pm

00z run, Al. Haven't seen anything from today yet lol my fault, should have clarified.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:23 pm

Has some support from 12z ensembles now, also for Harvey (ala Franklin redux)......

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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:24 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 10 Img_1211

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:03 pm

I dunno most people on tropics forums some are mets feel 92L and the other wave will dissipate soon and all will be quiet for now, Harvey may be the only thing that is going on.  What you guys think, NHC says the chances of 92L developing are diminishing.

Well wait now 18z GFS has a system develop off SE coast at he 264, I cannot follow where it comes from if its 92L or something else. Quite A bit later than CMC in time frame if it is 92L.
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