2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:27 pm

Forecast is to regain TS, im surprised it hasnt been suggested that once over the SE coast its not possible she could become the first hurricane. waters are warm and I havent looked but is shear or sal a big issue there? Nevertheless looks at the very far western perifery of cone OBX is only place may get skimmed.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by EnyapWeather on Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:06 pm

Guys I have a question about Tropical Storm Emily. Tomorrow at 9:00 am I am scheduled to fly down to the Bahamas, Nassau, and I'm worried about the track of this storm. Not only is it supposed to strengthen, I am supposed to fly right through it tomorrow. 45 sustained and 60 gusts. A girl who went down today said her flight was delayed an hour and they had to re route around it. So I was wondering what you guys thought. I am pretty positive that my flight will be delayed for tomorrow. Any thoughts?
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:02 pm

EnyapWeather wrote:Guys I have a question about Tropical Storm Emily. Tomorrow at 9:00 am I am scheduled to fly down to the Bahamas, Nassau, and I'm worried about the track of this storm. Not only is it supposed to strengthen, I am supposed to fly right through it tomorrow. 45 sustained and 60 gusts. A girl who went down today said her flight was delayed an hour and they had to re route around it. So I was wondering what you guys thought. I am pretty positive that my flight will be delayed for tomorrow. Any thoughts?

Enyap,

You most likely will have a delay since they will need to reroute around Emily if she is still indeed in the path of yuor flight. I know they keep the routes for the Bahamas close to the coast but in any event you will most likely be delayed. Watch our for one whilst your down there as well as there is a wave or two in the Eastern Caribbean and Western MDR region that looks like it might spin up into a cyclone. Have a great time and safe travels.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:25 pm

Here we go peeps EURO sniffing out the tropics, one hcane in Bay of Campeche GOM and other in the MDR as a trop cyclone for the upcoming period. 
JB honking reminds him of 2004 when we had a major cool shot with a deep trough over the heartland of USA in earky Augustand boom the tropics took off.

EURO 




GEFS agree


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:44 pm

Epayne better hope this one doesn't take the track straight for you and your family in da Bahamas kid. The thick blue dot like coming off of Africa towards Haiti and the Carribean, trajectory after this has a bit of a turn NW

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:55 pm

The propensity for SE PAC storms is declining. Likely in response to the waning weak El Niño like influences on the trop PAC and the last month or so of La Niña signaling as seen by the SOI and decline of the SST anomalies both surface and at depth esp in 3.4.

Walker and Hadley cell configurations look to be shifting some which will likely increase the odds of Atlantic basin trop development. Let's hope so because this weather is boooorrrriinnggg.

The Azores Ridge and the Saharan ridge have been dominant features for most of July in that they have promoted excessive SAL which has pretty much put the cap on any spark coming off an already fairly active African wave train. Although the conditions should improve conditions there are still indications that the SAL will still be quite prominent through the first half of the month. A well timed robust African wave, or a wave that survives the long treck into the GOM or SE coast can of course get itself going my own personal opinion is that we will have to wait until the latter half of the month to see anything tropical of true significance coming out of the MDR and only if the SAL quiets down.  But hey who knows with tropical systems.  They do what they want sometimes.

The SAL is pretty far north as it does come off the coast. Like I said above combine the improving big picture drivers if the timing is right with these waves things could get interesting.  This one coming off the African coast now which is outlined by Mugsys image above has a shot, but don't be surprised if dry air hinders development.  


Let me know if this GIF works or not below this line.  It is the NASA GEOS-5 SAL forecast. Man the end of the loop looks like quite the puff of SAL. Like other LR forecasts lets hope it isn't truth because that would likely shut down the MDR again.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:35 pm

The area coming off africa now has been noted by nhc. Has 30% chance in 5 day. This is the first time the euro has really sniffed anything out in the tropics so things may get going but yeah sroc that sal has been a killer.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:23 am

Here we go MDR firing up and August has just begun!! EURO SAYING GAME ON this is the best model for trop cyclines so when it says so we watch and listen.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:42 am

Check this map out from Ventrice showing the trop airmass this wave off the African coast is going to enjoy festering in




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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:06 am

What is MDR and SAL
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:23 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:What is MDR and SAL

MDR - Main Development Region - this sis the area in the tropics in the Atlantic from teh coast of Africa to what is deemed the Western Atlantic

SAL - Saharan Air Level

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:42 am

amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:What is MDR and SAL

MDR - Main Development Region - this sis the area in the tropics in the Atlantic from teh coast of Africa to what is deemed the Western Atlantic

SAL - Saharan Air Level

Thanks mugsy
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:02 pm

amugs wrote:Check this map out from Ventrice showing the trop airmass this wave off the African coast is going to enjoy festering in




That is an interesting wave but it is also a very broad wave with convection over a large area.  It is typical, for some of the larger waves to take a fair amount of time to develop.  As of now there are multiple centers of vorticity embedded within this wave.  We will have to see if we can get a single low level center.  Once we do we have to try and get the very wide spread convection to consolidate around it to really get it going.  There is decent PWATS surrounding the wave and as you can see by the animation below towards the end of the loop there is some rotation embedded, but as you can see there is a decent puff of SAL coming off the West African coast N of the Eastern portion of the wave.  We shall see how this wave progresses.  So if or when it does develop does it struggle to intensify because the mid levels mix in the SAL?  If the LLC forsm closer to the N periphery of the wave then dry air mixing in is more likely; if on the southern edge then it may be protected some.  All interesting questions to watch play out over the next week or so.  There is another healthy wave behind this one. In general if it stays weaker then less likely to recurve. If it develops faster and stronger, ie: before it reaches the lesser Antilles, the more likely to get a harmless recurve OTS.  




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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:06 pm

Well it is up to 80% chance in the 5 day and the crazy GFS has a 937mb cat 5 east of FL at 240 hrs, break off into fantasy land and we have a cat 2/3 landfall in LI. Not buying it but 240 hrs is a lot less than when we were seeing the gfs spit out crazy solutions at 384 hrs.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 12:23 am

GFS is coming in hot once again with 99L
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 12:34 am

GFS has a 937 low at 204 hitting the Bahamas
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:34 am

Go out a bit further and the insane gfs has a 926mb cat 6 jk...skirting fl and then riding coast weakening very similar to an Irene track. Also Gloria was similar. This one we may have watch. What's interesting is the gfs is going hog wild with it while cmc has a minimal take at best. Sint that something. Euro has it but not developed. The bay of Campeche system gets blown up by euro.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:48 am

Of course I gotta b sick at 2:45am fun. Anyways from other boards on tropics they are def interested in 99L which this wave is deemed. Gfs as said has painted a scary senario past few runs and within 10 days. For one that would mean this really speeds up. Isn't that bad for a systems development? Hoping this does form so we at least have something track. Hwrf fwiw has this in 5 days a cat 3 or 4 or so. The gfs ensembles have a great agreement till Bahamas then start diverge but almost all go up the East coast....
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:00 am

Unfort I don't have time this morning for an in depth analysis on current observations, but there is def 2 interesting areas to watch.  However; as was the case at the beginning of July we have two completely different forecast solns from the GFS and the Euro regarding both tropical waves.  Here are the two areas currently designated Invests 90L and 99L.  Remember when looking at this image 99L has a 80% chance to develop into a depression in the next 5days, and 90L a 50% chance to develop into a depression....not a trop storm or hurricane at least as is currently designated by the NHC.  The main difference between an invest and a depression is a closed low level of circulation.  




Briefly in the short range 90L is being handled "relatively" similarly(there are differences) between euro and gGFS, but here is what the euro does to 90L by 00z Thursday vs the GFS




Now regarding 99L there are HUGE differences in how the GFS and Euro handle these two systems in the next 48hrs let alone 144hrs-240hrs.  

Here is the main take home point before I go any further.  With such huge difference, and I mean 180* differences at the moment, looking at models beyond 2-3 days to try and figure out what is going to happen is not wise, even if one model has been "consistent" in its depiction of what is to happen.  Current observations regarding wind shear, relative humidity, vorticity, etc etc will point us in the direction of which model is less wrong, or more likely to be correct regarding these trop systems. Once the system becomes better organized we should start to see the convergence of the solns.

Here are the side by side comparisons of the GFS vs Euro regarding development of 99L at the surface.

48hrs



72Hrs



144hrs



240hrs



As you can plainly see euro keeps 99L as an open wave throughout the nxt 10days which tracks into the N Caribbean and remains S of the greater Antillies and is near western Cuba/S Fla in the last image above vs the GFS has 99L developed into a trop depression within the next 48hrs then a trop storm by hr 72, a hurricane by hr144, then a major hurricane that is just off the E coast of Fla in 10days trackin N of the Caribbean Islands.  (Remember as a general rule the stronger a trop system is as it approaches 60W Longitude or the Eastern Caribbean Islands that make up the Lesser Antilles the more likely the system is to track N vs S of the Islands respectively) So who to believe?  Thus far the GFS has shown a propensity to develop trop system much too quickly.  The problem likely lies in the fact that at the current moment 99L is still a pretty broad area with no defined area of Low Level circulation(LLC), but rather several areas of spin/vorticity throughout the disorganized area.  The GFS is likely honing in or initializing on one area and taking off from there; whereas, the European model, and its proven superior physics, likely is not falling for it. Here is an up close look at 99L.  Notice although not horrible, there still is dry air for which it will still need to contend with as it develops further.  




Here is my take.  Based on current observations and the fact that the GFS has proven nothing thus far in the season regarding its handling of the tropics, I would be surprised if the GFS were correct.    Without going into detail there is decent upper level divergence, low level convergence, and shear forecasts don't look horrible over the next 2-3days, so slow continued organization is still possible and/or even likely, but I suspect that 99L will cont to struggle to develop any further than a depression if it even does that over the next 3-5days.  Of course this is the GFS's chance to score the win, and a rapid development can def still happen if certain conditions overcome the inhibitory ones.  
90L will def need to be monitored as it approaches the GOM/BOC(Bay of Campeche)

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:20 am

Here is the current shear surrounding 99L.  As you can see a decent anticyclone is centered over top(indicating upper level divergence), but notice the southern half of the area is currently experiencing moderate shear (15-30kts).  The result is, as you can also see, is that the Northern half of the system has the best convection right now.  



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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:19 pm

Very true and 12z gfs is much weaker and heads into go and blows up tgere. Your right best to take tracks etc grain salt.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Math23x7 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:48 pm

I have a rule of thumb when it comes to tracking in the tropics: Until the ECMWF comes on board, the storm is pure fantasy. 99L is not materializing on the latest ECMWF runs and while it has 90L forming, it stays in the southern Gulf and going into Mexico.

I will remain skeptical of potential US hurricanes until the EURO shows one.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by EnyapWeather on Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:32 pm

Any updates? Also what are the other forums that everyone is always referring too?
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Snow88 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:06 pm

18z GEFS likes this threat

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:14 am

Here is an update on 90L and 99L.  Overall NHC chances bumped down on both per their 8am update... with 90L at 50% and 99L at 70% for development into a depression over the next 5 days



Briefly regarding 90L.  Shear, and the close proximity to the S American coastline remains the key inhibiting factors for its development.  If this is to develop it likely wont until it passes over the Yukatan Penninsula and into the Bay Of Campeche (BOC).  That said models have been fairly consistent in taking it on the southern periphery of the shaded area above.  This would result in the likelihood for little to no further development due to land interactions and little time over open waters; however, if the track ends up on the northern periphery then rapid development is def still possible.  Even with development into an organized trop system landfall would likely be Mexico, but Texas is still not out of the woods.  For now in the words of Mr. Forest Gump..." That's all I have to say about that"

99L

Overall the convection surrounding 99L remains highly disorganized and spread out.  This combined with dry air, and Shear on the southeast and Eastern sides of the system have really hindered any further development thus far.





That said There remains a nice anticyclone just West of where the NHC has the center of the wave, designated I
.  This anticyclone results in upper air divergence, an exhaust if you will, that promotes/enhances rising air beneath it.  


As a result of this there seems to be a little better organization and a tighter cluster of convection developing underneath this area of divergence this morning.  We will have to watch this very closely for organization throughout the day as it seems to be far enough away from the shear as seen above.  





Going back to the "shear" factor looking at both GFS and Euro wind shear forecasts it actually appears that shear may increase on the southern and Easterly flanks of this area over the next 24hrs.  

So although there currently appears to be some better organization near the westerly component to the wave that is 99L I suspect it will continue to be much ado about nothing.

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