2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Cmc very close at 240 but far weaker. Not gonna go by cmc much as it's been not great.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:and that's after truncation pressure is prolly far lower. If that's even imaginable. This at least is moving up in time and not back. I'm hoping max we track this is a week to 2 at most. Tropics too long lol. Good good and that one behind it follows similar path in lala land. Can only do one at a time lolSoulSingMG wrote:Man, what a BEAST. (Day 10)
I hear ya, Jman. It's daunting to know only a week from now can we actually start to take her track seriously. But hey, the joys of being crazy about meteorology.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Frank welcome back. Help us reel in Irma!!! If it's not her it will be another at some point. I'm not wishing for damage but after Sandy if you decided to stay and rebuild right on the coast you have to accept this as a reality. and I for one would like to live through another WITHOUT THE LOSS OF LIFE!!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
can't escape damage from a major in this area. It would be a catastrophe and as much as I want to live it too it's just something I'm sure 90% don't wanna hear.syosnow94 wrote:Frank welcome back. Help us reel in Irma!!! If it's not her it will be another at some point. I'm not wishing for damage but after Sandy if you decided to stay and rebuild right on the coast you have to accept this as a reality. and I for one would like to live through another WITHOUT THE LOSS OF LIFE!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
where's your two cents? Lol it's good stuff u already said some of us might get excited. Ur dangling the carrot. Nhc posted Irma is indeed rapidly intensifying and will b a major tonight if not before. Sattilite is incredible.rb924119 wrote:You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I'm hearing latest GEFS show a recurve TOWARD the coast. I'm driving, can anyone confirm?
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
that would be a retrogrades not a recurve God not Sandy... Wow nearly all the gets are along or off the ec and have really good agreement to around 5 6 days. Many landfall can't tell if there's a retrogrades.SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing latest GEFS show a recurve TOWARD the coast. I'm driving, can anyone confirm?
Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:where's your two cents? Lol it's good stuff u already said some of us might get excited. Ur dangling the carrot. Nhc posted Irma is indeed rapidly intensifying and will b a major tonight if not before. Sattilite is incredible.rb924119 wrote:You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it
I'm still at work; I told you I wouldn't be able to say anything deep until this evening AhahAha and of course, I gotta build the anticipation a bit ahahahaha and oh that's great, Jman, follow along with a chat board while driving lmao if you can do that, you can look at models jk jk, preferably don't do either lol but no, they recurve like the Op for the most part
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
that wasn't me I'm not driving I replied to the driver soulsing tisk tisk lol. Heck no. Okay right u did say ur busy forgot.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:where's your two cents? Lol it's good stuff u already said some of us might get excited. Ur dangling the carrot. Nhc posted Irma is indeed rapidly intensifying and will b a major tonight if not before. Sattilite is incredible.rb924119 wrote:You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it
I'm still at work; I told you I wouldn't be able to say anything deep until this evening AhahAha and of course, I gotta build the anticipation a bit ahahahaha and oh that's great, Jman, follow along with a chat board while driving lmao if you can do that, you can look at models jk jk, preferably don't do either lol but no, they recurve like the Op for the most part
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
to say the Euro grossly underestimated the mslp at initiation is an understatement
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Oh you right you right ahaha mah baddddd
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
sroc4 wrote:to say the Euro grossly underestimated the mslp at initiation is an understatement
To be expected with a storm deepening so rapidly; resolution isn't high enough.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
is that a wave behind irma cause it looks like a depression is forming...
mwilli5783- Posts : 146
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
mwilli5783 wrote:is that a wave behind irma cause it looks like a depression is forming...
It sure is. It will be Irmas annoying little brother tagging along behind. We will have to keep an eye on him for development over the next 5-7days
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
There's a new area invest yes lol OMG this go b long tropical season.
Frank can u explain ur hurricane index. Is that percentage a direct impact on us a landfall here or anywhere?
Frank can u explain ur hurricane index. Is that percentage a direct impact on us a landfall here or anywhere?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro is much further south than gfs and has been. Which in your best guess guys is the more likely.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
The first cross road will be in about 2 days. That is when the track of Irma is forecasted to shift from a NW trajectory to more of a SW trajectory. How far S it gets will have implications on the Lesser Antilles and beyond.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
euro should def come east of 00z.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
that would mean more of a move to gfs idea. That's not good but I guess good for fl.sroc4 wrote:euro should def come east of 00z.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:that would mean more of a move to gfs idea. That's not good but I guess good for fl.sroc4 wrote:euro should def come east of 00z.
I wouldnt say its moving towards the GFS but it looks like a track into the EC is coming on the euro. Im only at hr 156, but Trough split is happening which should steer Irma right up the coast
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
yes I see that too. Bad news.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:that would mean more of a move to gfs idea. That's not good but I guess good for fl.sroc4 wrote:euro should def come east of 00z.
I wouldnt say its moving towards the GFS but it looks like a track into the EC is coming on the euro. Im only at hr 156, but Trough split is happening which should steer Irma right up the coast
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro hour 192... 946mb just north of Hispanolia. Not sure if it slams into Florida or if the trough brings it up the coast.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Looks like a Andrew track honestly...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
EURO coming in hot!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Florida hit this run, looks to be heading towards the gulf
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