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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 36 Empty Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:55 pm

Cmc very close at 240 but far weaker. Not gonna go by cmc much as it's been not great.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Man, what a BEAST. (Day 10)

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 36 Img_6112
and that's after truncation pressure is prolly far lower. If that's even imaginable. This at least is moving up in time and not back. I'm hoping max we track this is a week to 2 at most. Tropics too long lol. Good good and that one behind it follows similar path in lala land. Can only do one at a time lol

I hear ya, Jman. It's daunting to know only a week from now can we actually start to take her track seriously. But hey, the joys of being crazy about meteorology.

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Post by Guest Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:07 pm

Frank welcome back. Help us reel in Irma!!! If it's not her it will be another at some point. I'm not wishing for damage but after Sandy if you decided to stay and rebuild right on the coast you have to accept this as a reality. and I for one would like to live through another WITHOUT THE LOSS OF LIFE!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank welcome back.  Help us reel in Irma!!!  If it's not her it will be another at some point.  I'm not wishing for damage but after Sandy if you decided to stay and rebuild right on the coast you have to accept this as a reality.  and I for one would like to live through another WITHOUT THE LOSS OF LIFE!!
can't escape damage from a major in this area. It would be a catastrophe and as much as I want to live it too it's just something I'm sure 90% don't wanna hear.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:39 pm

You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it Twisted Evil

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it Twisted Evil
where's your two cents? Lol it's good stuff u already said some of us might get excited. Ur dangling the carrot. Nhc posted Irma is indeed rapidly intensifying and will b a major tonight if not before. Sattilite is incredible.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:45 pm

I'm hearing latest GEFS show a recurve TOWARD the coast. I'm driving, can anyone confirm?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:47 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing latest GEFS show a recurve TOWARD the coast. I'm driving, can anyone confirm?
that would be a retrogrades not a recurve God not Sandy... Wow nearly all the gets are along or off the ec and have really good agreement to around 5 6 days. Many landfall can't tell if there's a retrogrades.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it Twisted Evil
where's your two cents? Lol it's good stuff u already said some of us might get excited. Ur dangling the carrot. Nhc posted Irma is indeed rapidly intensifying and will b a major tonight if not before. Sattilite is incredible.

I'm still at work; I told you I wouldn't be able to say anything deep until this evening AhahAha and of course, I gotta build the anticipation a bit ahahahaha and oh that's great, Jman, follow along with a chat board while driving lmao if you can do that, you can look at models jk jk, preferably don't do either lol but no, they recurve like the Op for the most part

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:You all are too much ahahaha analyzing operational runs already? SO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Lmfaoooooo I love it Twisted Evil
where's your two cents? Lol it's good stuff u already said some of us might get excited. Ur dangling the carrot. Nhc posted Irma is indeed rapidly intensifying and will b a major tonight if not before. Sattilite is incredible.

I'm still at work; I told you I wouldn't be able to say anything deep until this evening AhahAha and of course, I gotta build the anticipation a bit ahahahaha and oh that's great, Jman, follow along with a chat board while driving lmao if you can do that, you can look at models jk jk, preferably don't do either lol but no, they recurve like the Op for the most part
that wasn't me I'm not driving I replied to the driver soulsing tisk tisk lol. Heck no. Okay right u did say ur busy forgot.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:57 pm

to say the Euro grossly underestimated the mslp at initiation is an understatement

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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:58 pm

Oh you right you right ahaha mah baddddd

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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:to say the Euro grossly underestimated the mslp at initiation is an understatement  

To be expected with a storm deepening so rapidly; resolution isn't high enough.

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Post by mwilli5783 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:06 pm

is that a wave behind irma cause it looks like a depression is forming...

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:11 pm

mwilli5783 wrote:is that a wave behind irma cause it looks like a depression is forming...

It sure is. It will be Irmas annoying little brother tagging along behind. We will have to keep an eye on him for development over the next 5-7days

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:11 pm

There's a new area invest yes lol OMG this go b long tropical season.

Frank can u explain ur hurricane index. Is that percentage a direct impact on us a landfall here or anywhere?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:28 pm

Euro is much further south than gfs and has been. Which in your best guess guys is the more likely.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:30 pm

The first cross road will be in about 2 days.  That is when the track of Irma is forecasted to shift from a NW trajectory to more of a SW trajectory.  How far S it gets will have implications on the Lesser Antilles and beyond.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:34 pm

euro should def come east of 00z.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:euro should def come east of 00z.
that would mean more of a move to gfs idea. That's not good but I guess good for fl.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:euro should def come east of 00z.
that would mean more of a move to gfs idea. That's not good but I guess good for fl.

I wouldnt say its moving towards the GFS but it looks like a track into the EC is coming on the euro. Im only at hr 156, but Trough split is happening which should steer Irma right up the coast

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:euro should def come east of 00z.
that would mean more of a move to gfs idea. That's not good but I guess good for fl.

I wouldnt say its moving towards the GFS but it looks like a track into the EC is coming on the euro.  Im only at hr 156, but Trough split is happening which should steer Irma right up the coast
yes I see that too. Bad news.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:47 pm

Euro hour 192... 946mb just north of Hispanolia. Not sure if it slams into Florida or if the trough brings it up the coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:56 pm

Looks like a Andrew track honestly...
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Post by aiannone Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:56 pm

EURO coming in hot!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:57 pm

Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?
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Post by aiannone Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:58 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 36 Ecmwf_10

Florida hit this run, looks to be heading towards the gulf

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