2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Page 37 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 36, 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:02 pm

Euro wipes out the FLA. keys - WAR is super strong on this run - totally different at H5 in terms of strength on the EURO.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8604
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8604
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:04 pm

Shouldn't we make a thread for Irma? So here we can discuss the new entity coming off? Plus this thread is getting super long lol
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:07 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell
yeah actually I always say track is between euro and gfs which would bring all way up coast and cause a huge effect too many states. Yes time will tell. Much time lol hate time
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

If your is correct at H5 it is. Models diverge on upper air pattern beyond day 3-5 so although I am going over it dont put any stock in any one soln.

Big forks in the road:

1) Current track is NNW. In about 2 days it is forecast to start moving west then SSW from there. How far north it gets in the next 2 days then how far south it gets between day 2-5 as it approaches 60W.

2) Euro shows trough split over the mid west beginning around hr 144 or by Wednesday next week. GFS on the other hand does not show the trough split until hr 186-192, or by Friday, and does so over the Mid Atlantic states. The difference in the two is with euro scenerio there is ridging along the east coast steering it west, the GFS scenario has the ridge out over the Atlantic causing the recurve.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:09 pm

Sanvu recurving typhoon into the GOA will have yuuge downstream effects needs to be watched closely IMO

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8604
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:12 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell

Bingo Mugs. Timing and positioning of the trough and if/when it splits, and the positioning and strength of the WAR

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:14 pm

A blend of the two solns is usually the right one esp when they both show the opposite ends of the spectrum like they do now. SE Canada to GOM still in play.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:03 pm

12z Euro Ensembles are N and E of 00z and Euro Op

12z:



00z:



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Disneyprincess1592 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:06 pm

Worst case this hits Florida head on, I live in Orlando what does everyone think is going to happen to Orlando?

Disneyprincess1592

Posts : 34
Join date : 2017-08-31

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell

Bingo Mugs.  Timing and positioning of the trough and if/when it splits, and the positioning and strength of the WAR

My younger good looking like brethren (Zoo says this to me when she sees me LOL!) these 3 aspects (Recurve typhoon, WAR and trough)tell the tale of what Irma will do. My other concern is the 2 other TD/TC that the gfs and euro had after her. This could get really ugly for the USA mainland.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8604
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:15 pm

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:Worst case this hits Florida head on, I live in Orlando what does everyone think is going to happen to Orlando?

Welcome DP. Still too far out to tell.  My guess is by Tuesday of next week, +/- a day, we should have a better idea of where Irma is headed.  Right now the entire EC is still possible.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:12z Euro Ensembles are N and E of 00z and Euro Op

12z:



00z:


Exactly my pt, I just have a feeling this is going to ride the coast, not wishcasting (okay maybe a little) but the fork in the road would do so.  I am guessing at 5pm we have at least a cat 3.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Disneyprincess1592 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:19 pm

Well let's just hope it hits Florida completely, we been doing so good with not getting hurricanes

Disneyprincess1592

Posts : 34
Join date : 2017-08-31

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Disneyprincess1592 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:20 pm

Doesn't hit Florida.. no way I want a hurricane

Disneyprincess1592

Posts : 34
Join date : 2017-08-31

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:21 pm

For those who need color graphics - YIKES!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8604
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:22 pm

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:Doesn't hit Florida.. no way I want a hurricane

LOL  I knew what you meant. I did read it 2 or 3 times though

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:22 pm

EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8604
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:31 pm

amugs wrote:EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

Is that a gap to go right up the coast?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

Is that a gap to go right up the coast?

jman that was my question as well?!
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1496
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 53
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:37 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

Is that a gap to go right up the coast?

jman that was my question as well?!
I think it is going neutral and headed to negative which would capture irma no?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:39 pm

Cat 3 guys 115mph winds, holy snikes mugs!
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:49 pm

Harvey headed for the Tenn valley, and what should have been Irma, headed into the N Atlantic. Good riddance huh Ray? told ya


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4850
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:54 pm

Can we say east coast threat or OTS, not many far from going up the coast, this is not good, I know still way far off but this no look good for those that want it to stay away.

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13248
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:04 pm

10 days out till it reaches the Caribbean. A LOT WILL CHANGE. Everyone relax. Come talk to me in 5 days
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2287
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 37 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 36, 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum