2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:06 pm

FIIIIIIIIIIIINNNALLLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY IM FREE!!!!! Lol sorry for my absence tracking with y'all today :/ work sucks ahaha

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:Harvey headed for the Tenn valley, and what should have been Irma, headed into the N Atlantic.  Good riddance huh Ray?  told ya


For those of you who have seen Fast Times at Ridgemont High, my response to you Scott is the same as Spiccoli's when Mr. Hahn takes his pizza (since we keep this board family friendly) ahahahahahahaha still shoulda been named, though, given everything else they've named this season so far -_-

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:30 pm

Looks like 18z gfs is going smack into midatlsntic at 902mb that high looks b block it Jesus if this was the modeling only a few days out.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:32 pm

Good lord this run is a long range disaster. Yeah yeah Ray off run lol. And 9 days out. Still it doesn't look like it's going ots at this pt.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:39 pm

Holy crap gfs cat 5 around benchmark. Honestly I hope it's on drugs that's insane.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap gfs cat 5 around benchmark. Honestly I hope it's on drugs that's insane.


LOL. I was just going to come here and tell you to check out the 18z if you havent already. Figure youd need a change of underwear. lol

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap gfs cat 5 around benchmark. Honestly I hope it's on drugs that's insane.


LOL.  I was just going to come here and tell you to check out the 18z if you havent already.  Figure youd need a change of underwear.  lol
I mean honestly sroc is that even possible? I'm go b in CT on the 9th that would mess up plans a bit. Oh I'll b on watch this like white on rice. Not stay up late at night to check though. BTW start a new job 11th...or maybe not.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:54 pm

Well those that don't like the b town it's gone on that run. I was for sure that was go b smack central li or west what made the sudden due North?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Well those that don't like the b town it's gone on that run.

can you post maps please? and good luck on the new job!!
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:02 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well those that don't like the b town it's gone on that run.

can you post maps please?  and good luck on the new job!!
I'll let the head guys on here decide if the images should b posted due to the nature.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:07 pm

I am only posting these for fun.   Max sustained winds at the time of landfall are 141kts or 162MPH. Yes this is def on the table, but no I DO NOT take this seriously at this time.  








Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:08 pm

Look at this jet streak YIKES
I know GFS shows something that man has never seen since he settled this land here


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:09 pm

Video #1 recapping my failure of MY "Irma" for those who may be interested. Video #2 will be in progress shortly. And Scott, I hope you know I was kidding with my previous comment lol

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:Video #1 recapping my failure of MY "Irma" for those who may be interested. Video #2 will be in progress shortly. And Scott, I hope you know I was kidding with my previous comment lol

OF COURSE!!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:15 pm

12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:16 pm

From Ventrice on tweeter - insane


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:I am only posting these for fun.   Max sustained winds at the time of landfall are 141kts or 162MPH.  Yes this is def on the table, but no I DO NOT take this seriously at this time.  








thanks sroc..was just curious what they looked like....
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:28 pm

Wow sroc, I know we cant take it seriously but to say a cat 5 to make history up this way is even slightly possible is just crazy, and i trust in your analysis, canot wait to see what you guys say in 5 days or so when we have a better idea.  Scary nonetheless, and from those plots looks like irma will hit somewhere in the US, pretty much none go OTS, and a track further to the east isnt out of the possibilities either, pretty much everything is on the table but IMO looks like OTS is diminishing if upper levels do not drastically change, but I guess that too could change.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:29 pm

amugs wrote:From Ventrice on tweeter - insane

look at the middle dark line thats a disaster for the entire east coast.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol
Are they available to toe public anywhere?
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol
Are they available to toe public anywhere?

Tropical Tidbits --> Current Storms --> Irma --> Look at the panel that says CMC Ensemble

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:52 pm

Wow GFS ensembles paints a ugly picture, what do the europ ensembles look like? Do they agree on a GOM track?

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol
Are they available to toe public anywhere?

Tropical Tidbits --> Current Storms --> Irma --> Look at the panel that says CMC Ensemble
GEFS are more west than CMC, look worse to me than CMC.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:08 pm

There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).
Thanks
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