2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Page 38 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:06 pm

FIIIIIIIIIIIINNNALLLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY IM FREE!!!!! Lol sorry for my absence tracking with y'all today :/ work sucks ahaha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:Harvey headed for the Tenn valley, and what should have been Irma, headed into the N Atlantic.  Good riddance huh Ray?  told ya


For those of you who have seen Fast Times at Ridgemont High, my response to you Scott is the same as Spiccoli's when Mr. Hahn takes his pizza (since we keep this board family friendly) ahahahahahahaha still shoulda been named, though, given everything else they've named this season so far -_-

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:30 pm

Looks like 18z gfs is going smack into midatlsntic at 902mb that high looks b block it Jesus if this was the modeling only a few days out.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:32 pm

Good lord this run is a long range disaster. Yeah yeah Ray off run lol. And 9 days out. Still it doesn't look like it's going ots at this pt.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:39 pm

Holy crap gfs cat 5 around benchmark. Honestly I hope it's on drugs that's insane.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap gfs cat 5 around benchmark. Honestly I hope it's on drugs that's insane.


LOL. I was just going to come here and tell you to check out the 18z if you havent already. Figure youd need a change of underwear. lol

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap gfs cat 5 around benchmark. Honestly I hope it's on drugs that's insane.


LOL.  I was just going to come here and tell you to check out the 18z if you havent already.  Figure youd need a change of underwear.  lol
I mean honestly sroc is that even possible? I'm go b in CT on the 9th that would mess up plans a bit. Oh I'll b on watch this like white on rice. Not stay up late at night to check though. BTW start a new job 11th...or maybe not.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:54 pm

Well those that don't like the b town it's gone on that run. I was for sure that was go b smack central li or west what made the sudden due North?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Well those that don't like the b town it's gone on that run.

can you post maps please? and good luck on the new job!!
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2013
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:02 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well those that don't like the b town it's gone on that run.

can you post maps please?  and good luck on the new job!!
I'll let the head guys on here decide if the images should b posted due to the nature.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:07 pm

I am only posting these for fun.   Max sustained winds at the time of landfall are 141kts or 162MPH. Yes this is def on the table, but no I DO NOT take this seriously at this time.  








Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:08 pm

Look at this jet streak YIKES
I know GFS shows something that man has never seen since he settled this land here


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9514
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:09 pm

Video #1 recapping my failure of MY "Irma" for those who may be interested. Video #2 will be in progress shortly. And Scott, I hope you know I was kidding with my previous comment lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:Video #1 recapping my failure of MY "Irma" for those who may be interested. Video #2 will be in progress shortly. And Scott, I hope you know I was kidding with my previous comment lol

OF COURSE!!!

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:15 pm

12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:16 pm

From Ventrice on tweeter - insane


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9514
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:I am only posting these for fun.   Max sustained winds at the time of landfall are 141kts or 162MPH.  Yes this is def on the table, but no I DO NOT take this seriously at this time.  








thanks sroc..was just curious what they looked like....
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2013
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:28 pm

Wow sroc, I know we cant take it seriously but to say a cat 5 to make history up this way is even slightly possible is just crazy, and i trust in your analysis, canot wait to see what you guys say in 5 days or so when we have a better idea.  Scary nonetheless, and from those plots looks like irma will hit somewhere in the US, pretty much none go OTS, and a track further to the east isnt out of the possibilities either, pretty much everything is on the table but IMO looks like OTS is diminishing if upper levels do not drastically change, but I guess that too could change.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:29 pm

amugs wrote:From Ventrice on tweeter - insane

look at the middle dark line thats a disaster for the entire east coast.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol
Are they available to toe public anywhere?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol
Are they available to toe public anywhere?

Tropical Tidbits --> Current Storms --> Irma --> Look at the panel that says CMC Ensemble

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4510
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:52 pm

Wow GFS ensembles paints a ugly picture, what do the europ ensembles look like? Do they agree on a GOM track?

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are a legitimate nightmare for the Eastern Seaboard, just fyi lol
Are they available to toe public anywhere?

Tropical Tidbits --> Current Storms --> Irma --> Look at the panel that says CMC Ensemble
GEFS are more west than CMC, look worse to me than CMC.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:08 pm

There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:There's not much to say at this point. It's classic model mayhem at the 500mb level. Until that gets figured out, it's anyone's game. Even the ensembles are widely different run to run.

J man - the hurricane index is the probability of a hurricane impacting the area. It does not mean landfall in our area. It could make landfall in the Carolinas and come up the coast (for example).
Thanks
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14799
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 38 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum