2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:43 am

Headed for carolinas, OTS?  Big changes, will have see if this is a change that holds. 936mb and this isnt hi-res Euro.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:53 am

Wow, way stronger than 12z and way further north-east, now euro shows a east coast threat, uh oh ray....

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:58 am

And we have a turn north, if extrapolated out will this go OTS or up into the area? Just goes to show how many swings and changes there will be for the next week.  As stated it all depends on the 500mb setup. Oh and shes a beast 923mb at 240 hr, scary cat 4/5 off EC. GN all

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by docstox12 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:47 am

Best case scenario is it avoids the ravaged Texas area and hooks OTS away from our area.We don't need another Sandy up here.Hope the steering winds takes it OTS.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:14 am

I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:16 am

Also hearing euro caved to GFS this morning
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Radz on Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:52 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely

Unless you're the 06z GFS, long way to go yet- maybe Tuesday we'll start to get a better idea of where she'll be heading...
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:00 am

Radz wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely

Unless you're the 06z GFS, long way to go yet- maybe Tuesday we'll start to get a better idea of where she'll be heading...
Very convoluted pattern with troughs and ridges. We will have a better idea where Irma"s final destination is by Tuesday. Until then expect to see many different outcomes. When all is said and done, my gut tells me this ends up as a carolina crusher.
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:10 am

Radz wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely

Unless you're the 06z GFS, long way to go yet- maybe Tuesday we'll start to get a better idea of where she'll be heading...

Yeah not buying it blend the modes east coast hit
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:23 am

Gefs shows many big hits up hete
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:CMC is in line with Euro Hmmm...ray i am guessing you passed out lol, but who was supposed to get excited about your thoughts and placement cuz if GFS is wrong its just another snooze for us.

Oh yeah I was LONG out cold by this point ahaha and people not wanting a storm were probably pleased lol as for confidence, NOTHING this far out is high confidence. The modeling is going to continue change tracks and positions as it continues to tinker with and adjust all of the players on the board. The only thing I DO feel confident in saying is I personally like the idea of the trough splitting here. Beyond that, while I am comfortable with where I stand at the moment given the modeling, I am by no means letting my guard down thinking that's the answer. I am not throwing any guidance out EXCEPT the Canadian Ensemble because I don't like what it's doing in the Eastern Pacific, HOWEVER, I'm still watching it. As for being in the minority versus modeling right now, I believe that there will be a correction at least closer to my ideas in coming days, which is why I'm going to just observe things for a bit and see what transpires. If there is no sign that my ideas have merit, I'll change, but it's too far out to take ANYTHING verbatim and to call ANYTHING a trend.

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:33 am

Quick up date: Not much to update. H5 cont to flip an flop on the models. Don't take anything serious ATT. No models have caved at this point since no model is consistent. If you haven't already watch and listen to Levi Cowan's latest video. Echos my sentiments EXACTLY

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/08/31/thursday-evening-irma-already-a-powerful-hurricane-still-many-days-from-the-caribbean/

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:12 am

jake732 wrote:gulf of mexica impact is most likely from the sounds of the pros....east coast is just not lkely

Stop it

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:16 am

EURO last night did trend north...but H5 still greatly different from that of GFS. As mentioned, it will take all of this weekend and maybe Monday for models to come into some sort of consensus.


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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO last night did trend north...but H5 still greatly different from that of GFS. As mentioned, it will take all of this weekend and maybe Monday for models to come into some sort of consensus.


Who is this guy? Must be new to the forum lmao GREAT to have our fearless leader back!

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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:13 am


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