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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:33 am

Big difference the the ridge and trough from 00z yesterday.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:38 am

Euro is north of the islands huge shift, heading in direction of GFS or a median like stated before? I know no ones here LOL, I am not working right now so I said wth ill stay up and you all can see the play in the morning.lol


2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 40 Ecmwf_13

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:43 am

Headed for carolinas, OTS?  Big changes, will have see if this is a change that holds. 936mb and this isnt hi-res Euro.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 40 Ecmwf_14
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:53 am

Wow, way stronger than 12z and way further north-east, now euro shows a east coast threat, uh oh ray....

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:58 am

And we have a turn north, if extrapolated out will this go OTS or up into the area? Just goes to show how many swings and changes there will be for the next week.  As stated it all depends on the 500mb setup. Oh and shes a beast 923mb at 240 hr, scary cat 4/5 off EC. GN all

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Post by docstox12 Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:47 am

Best case scenario is it avoids the ravaged Texas area and hooks OTS away from our area.We don't need another Sandy up here.Hope the steering winds takes it OTS.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:14 am

I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:16 am

Also hearing euro caved to GFS this morning
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Post by Radz Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:52 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely

Unless you're the 06z GFS, long way to go yet- maybe Tuesday we'll start to get a better idea of where she'll be heading...
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:00 am

Radz wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely

Unless you're the 06z GFS, long way to go yet- maybe Tuesday we'll start to get a better idea of where she'll be heading...
Very convoluted pattern with troughs and ridges. We will have a better idea where Irma"s final destination is by Tuesday. Until then expect to see many different outcomes. When all is said and done, my gut tells me this ends up as a carolina crusher.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:10 am

Radz wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going to be honest from all the analysis I have read ots is not likely

Unless you're the 06z GFS, long way to go yet- maybe Tuesday we'll start to get a better idea of where she'll be heading...

Yeah not buying it blend the modes east coast hit
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:23 am

Gefs shows many big hits up hete
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:CMC is in line with Euro Hmmm...ray i am guessing you passed out lol, but who was supposed to get excited about your thoughts and placement cuz if GFS is wrong its just another snooze for us.

Oh yeah I was LONG out cold by this point ahaha and people not wanting a storm were probably pleased lol as for confidence, NOTHING this far out is high confidence. The modeling is going to continue change tracks and positions as it continues to tinker with and adjust all of the players on the board. The only thing I DO feel confident in saying is I personally like the idea of the trough splitting here. Beyond that, while I am comfortable with where I stand at the moment given the modeling, I am by no means letting my guard down thinking that's the answer. I am not throwing any guidance out EXCEPT the Canadian Ensemble because I don't like what it's doing in the Eastern Pacific, HOWEVER, I'm still watching it. As for being in the minority versus modeling right now, I believe that there will be a correction at least closer to my ideas in coming days, which is why I'm going to just observe things for a bit and see what transpires. If there is no sign that my ideas have merit, I'll change, but it's too far out to take ANYTHING verbatim and to call ANYTHING a trend.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:33 am

Quick up date: Not much to update. H5 cont to flip an flop on the models. Don't take anything serious ATT. No models have caved at this point since no model is consistent. If you haven't already watch and listen to Levi Cowan's latest video. Echos my sentiments EXACTLY

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/08/31/thursday-evening-irma-already-a-powerful-hurricane-still-many-days-from-the-caribbean/

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:12 am

jake732 wrote:gulf of mexica impact is most likely from the sounds of the pros....east coast is just not lkely

Stop it

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:16 am

EURO last night did trend north...but H5 still greatly different from that of GFS. As mentioned, it will take all of this weekend and maybe Monday for models to come into some sort of consensus.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO last night did trend north...but H5 still greatly different from that of GFS. As mentioned, it will take all of this weekend and maybe Monday for models to come into some sort of consensus.

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Who is this guy? Must be new to the forum lmao GREAT to have our fearless leader back!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:13 am


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