Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Ask and yee shall receive Skins. Not a drop of rain for most of LI all friggin day

.97 in today in thunderstorms with pea size hail !

Thornwood, NY not to far NE of white plains had 1.75 inch hail!! And that was from a trained spotter holy crap!

In terms of weather conditions this month, the one day I am really focused on is Monday, August 21st. If we had no cloud cover between 1:23 PM and 4 PM in NYC that day that would be nice. Why? That's when the solar eclipse will take place. It will hit its peak at 2:44 when about 70% of the sun will be obscured by the moon. Of course, if you would like to experience a total solar eclipse, you would need to be in the narrow path from Oregon to South Carolina, though the best bet is Western Kentucky where if the total solar eclipse will last for two minutes and forty seconds. Concerned about the clouds that day.

Good Morning!

Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.

I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.

New Yorker 234 wrote:Good Morning!

Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.

I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.

The classic thunderstorm you are referring involves the day time heating then the instability created as the sun begins to go down. However; thunderstorms can occur any time of day or night. In this case dew points, (a measure/indicator of how much moisture the atmosphere can hold )( THE HIGHER THE DEW POINT THE MORE POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN THE ATMOSPHERE), are in the low 70's indicating a lot of potential energy. All it takes is a trigger like a shortwave to creat instability and lift in the atmosphere. As soon as the trigger creates lift the storms fire up and off you go.

Thanks!

Fall like day tomorrow with rain and rawness. 
Looks like bulk of rain stays into the Philly and SNJ region but nonetheless temps hanging around 70*if lucky GFS forecastimg  highs in mid to upper 60's

NWS Upton:

Right now, have
gone with consistency with most models showing a track right
across Long Island. This may allow for some instability and
potentially higher rainfall totals in any thunderstorms that can
develop. With the warm front across the area and strong
directional and speed shear, the coastal areas of NYC and Long
Island will need to be monitored closely as the warm ocean
waters may locally support cells capable of rotation and
perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado.

0.60 in of rain i cant believe it already aug and it is nasty out there raw chilly rainy .is this summer or fall

64* in aug wow what is next

hey what do you guys see the weekend weather doing? it is conflicting on tv and web...tx

This weather just stinks at hotel nice outdoor pool wish could go out in sun.

I here euro weeklies look great

skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

JB pointed this out today.  GFS vs Euro regarding the MJO in the upcoming 2 weeks.   Quite the contrast. Another GFS Euro battle

amugs wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans

sroc4 wrote:JB pointed this out today.  GFS vs Euro regarding the MJO in the upcoming 2 weeks.   Quite the contrast.  Another GFS Euro battle

And people wonder why the Euro is generally better.........if you can't get the energy source FOR THE GLOBE correct, how can you expect to get anything else right??

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans

Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.

Oo lol whoops ahahaa my bad, y'all!!

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans

Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.

Def conflicting data Mugs regarding enso, but Ill tell you what.  The actual data, SST and SOI, has been screaming at another Nina.  Looking at the MSLP anomaly forecasts over the next 2 weeks the SOI looks to continue Mod-strong positive.  If that keeps up a La Nina is destined. Latest ONI is down as well.  

We are def in mostly neutral conditions, but we shall see going forward what the Sept/Oct/Nov time frame yields.  The forecasts and current conditions are nothing like what was predicted back in the spring however.  We should have been in the weak El Nino by now and that clearly is not the case.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml