July Disco/ Observations

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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:38 pm

Math23x7 wrote:As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland.  Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s.  Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th.  A couple of those days had highs in the 60s.  That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

Your memory and date recall ability to specific events continues to baffle me, I cannot find it in weather history by my parents are married 42 years ago on June 11th. My parents said it was like a hurricane on their wedding day (guess it is good luck, 42 years is quite something) and had a eye but it was not a actual hurricane. What storm was this i'd like to see if it was recorded as a notable storm?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:41 pm

I thought it was Fri but now looks like overnight Fri into Sat looks downright ugly on 18z GFS, 2-4 inches of rain in a pretty short amount of time, another LP forms as it heads off coast.

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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:45 pm

CMC pretty nasty too, gosh this is the summer of weekend rain!!

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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:54 pm

Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:56 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to

What does Euro show for rain totals?
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to

What does Euro show for rain totals?

Not sure but look at the RGEM!
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:30 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to

What does Euro show for rain totals?

Not sure but look at the RGEM!

OMG if it were winter we would all be jumping and peeing our pants lol

Imagine if we ever saw black for a winter storm LOL, 250mm = 98 inches 10:1!
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland.  Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s.  Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th.  A couple of those days had highs in the 60s.  That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

Your memory and date recall ability to specific events continues to baffle me, I cannot find it in weather history by my parents are married 42 years ago on June 11th. My parents said it was like a hurricane on their wedding day (guess it is good luck, 42 years is quite something) and had a eye but it was not a actual hurricane. What storm was this i'd like to see if it was recorded as a notable storm?

42 years ago this past June 11th or the next June 11th? The June 11th 42 years ago this year (1975) was a Wednesday. But the June 11th 42 years ago next year (1976) was a Friday.

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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:42 pm

Euro is on board as well - and where did this low originate from.............anyone...............Vodoo Econmics?? Buehler? Frye?

INDIA !! Yes India from the monsoon season. June 27thish is originated and has worked its way across the spaceship planet we call EARTH!!




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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:52 pm

12 CMC WOWZA!! If it verifies


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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:23 pm

amugs wrote:12  CMC WOWZA!! If it verifies

Posted it above mugs, your late to the party LOL
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:24 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland.  Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s.  Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th.  A couple of those days had highs in the 60s.  That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

Your memory and date recall ability to specific events continues to baffle me, I cannot find it in weather history by my parents are married 42 years ago on June 11th. My parents said it was like a hurricane on their wedding day (guess it is good luck, 42 years is quite something) and had a eye but it was not a actual hurricane. What storm was this i'd like to see if it was recorded as a notable storm?

42 years ago this past June 11th or the next June 11th?  The June 11th 42 years ago this year (1975) was a Wednesday.  But the June 11th 42 years ago next year (1976) was a Friday.

Sorry 42 years ago June 11th 2017. There was a big storm, I think they were in MA somewhere along the coast.
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by amugs on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:26 am

Gfs


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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by amugs on Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:47 pm

EPS spread for our winter storm I mean July coastal wth I have never tracked such outside of a trop system this time of year. Pre lude to winter???
DE, S and CNJ, LI AND NYC look to get it good with a sharper cut off as you move NW. Parts of NNJ as well but say Wester Passaic County cut off on NW from the latest. These seems to jog NW as they approach. Time will tell.


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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:59 pm

amugs wrote:EPS spread for our winter storm I mean July coastal wth I have never tracked such outside of a trop system this time of year. Pre lude to winter???
DE, S and CNJ, LI AND NYC look to get it good with a sharper cut off as you move NW. Parts of NNJ as well but say Wester Passaic County cut off on NW from the latest. These seems to jog NW as they approach. Time will tell. I know kinda weird don't usually see this. And if what u said was right we will be tracking tropics in coming weeks.

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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by dkodgis on Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:42 pm

I am going to guess that we will have cooler weather and wet wet wet for about what, the next two weeks? Aug may warm up in the middle?
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:46 pm

Euro misses the area pretty much entirely insanely heavy rains to the South.
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro misses the area pretty much entirely insanely heavy rains to the South.

I wouldnt exactly call 1-2.5" of rain entirely missing the area. lol. With decent blocking over Greenland, a 50/50 low and a ridge in the west dont be surpirsed to see this sucker trend a bit wetter and stronger. There is a deep subtropical moisture transport connection, and very strong vertical velocities being depicted as the LP comes off the coast. PWATS are impressive as well. Def a flash flood or urban flooding concerns for later Friday into Saturday. We will see where the cutoffs are.






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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:47 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro misses the area pretty much entirely insanely heavy rains to the South.

I wouldnt exactly call 1-2.5" of rain entirely missing the area. lol.  With decent blocking over Greenland, a 50/50 low and a ridge in the west dont be surpirsed to see this sucker trend a bit wetter and stronger.  There is a deep subtropical moisture transport connection, and very strong vertical velocities being depicted as the LP comes off the coast.  PWATS are impressive as well.  Def a flash flood or urban flooding concerns for later Friday into Saturday.  We will see where the cutoffs are.    






Your totally right, I saw something and I forget where that it looked way to far south to give us heavy rain. and yeah kinda like with our winter storms going more NW with time lol
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:28 am

This feature is key to the storm. The GB or Greenland Block if is strengthen s as indicated by the GFS then the system will slow down and possibly stall it allowing it mature into a stronger storm just off the coast. Time for me meso scale models like RGEM and Hi Res Nam


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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by dkodgis on Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:12 am

Bill Evans has red over Fri-Sat with the word "Alert". He probably knows something from the driver of the food vendor truck parked outside Channel 7. Razz Laughing
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by ak926 on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:01 am

So the heavy rain will be to our south ? I'm over 8 inches for the month so far !

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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:26 am

Umm sr models 12 km nam are bad showing 6 to 10 inches just south NYC 3km nam shows this over NYC and southern Westchester yikes!. They cleaning the storm drains here which they never do. Wow this could be epic rain.
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:31 am

Still some differences in placement of upper level jet over NE, LP intensity and position. It does look like both GFS and Euro are indicating a mostly positively tilted trough; however, the ULL seems to cut off from the main flow and sits for a day or so.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: July Disco/ Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:33 am

jmanley32 wrote:Umm sr models 12 km nam are bad showing 6 to 10 inches just south NYC 3km nam shows this over NYC and southern Westchester yikes!. They cleaning the storm drains here which they never do. Wow this could be epic rain.

Keep in mind NAM bias tends to over do precip, but again there are some decent dynamics to work with here from the LLJ to the south and the ULJ to the N. Most likely S of NYC metro but someone will see significant rain.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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