Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

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Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:35 pm

Ask and yee shall receive Skins. Not a drop of rain for most of LI all friggin day


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by ak926 on Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:01 pm

.97 in today in thunderstorms with pea size hail !

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:36 pm

Thornwood, NY not to far NE of white plains had 1.75 inch hail!! And that was from a trained spotter holy crap!
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:56 am

In terms of weather conditions this month, the one day I am really focused on is Monday, August 21st. If we had no cloud cover between 1:23 PM and 4 PM in NYC that day that would be nice. Why? That's when the solar eclipse will take place. It will hit its peak at 2:44 when about 70% of the sun will be obscured by the moon. Of course, if you would like to experience a total solar eclipse, you would need to be in the narrow path from Oregon to South Carolina, though the best bet is Western Kentucky where if the total solar eclipse will last for two minutes and forty seconds. Concerned about the clouds that day.

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by New Yorker 234 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:44 am

Good Morning!

Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.

I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:24 am

New Yorker 234 wrote:Good Morning!

Starting around 7 this morning, and still continuing, we've had a major thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Loud thunder. Heavy lightning. All the trimmings.

I'm just a layman where the weather is concerned but isn't it odd to have a thunderstorm in the early morning? I've experienced them before but not often. I always thought that thunderstorms developed based on heat and humidity that themselves develop during the day.

The classic thunderstorm you are referring involves the day time heating then the instability created as the sun begins to go down. However; thunderstorms can occur any time of day or night. In this case dew points, (a measure/indicator of how much moisture the atmosphere can hold )( THE HIGHER THE DEW POINT THE MORE POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN THE ATMOSPHERE), are in the low 70's indicating a lot of potential energy. All it takes is a trigger like a shortwave to creat instability and lift in the atmosphere. As soon as the trigger creates lift the storms fire up and off you go.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by New Yorker 234 on Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:56 am

Thanks!

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by dkodgis on Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:34 am

Light rain here at 5 am this morning. A spritz, really. I see the next ten days are meh in the upper 70's.  Not pool weather.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:05 am

Nice thunderstorm rolled through here early this morning, dropped .5" of rain. So muggy now, can't wait to get some sun to help dry things out.

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by dkodgis on Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:39 pm

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by amugs on Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:38 pm

Fall like day tomorrow with rain and rawness. 
Looks like bulk of rain stays into the Philly and SNJ region but nonetheless temps hanging around 70*if lucky GFS forecastimg  highs in mid to upper 60's


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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:47 am

NWS Upton:

Right now, have
gone with consistency with most models showing a track right
across Long Island. This may allow for some instability and
potentially higher rainfall totals in any thunderstorms that can
develop. With the warm front across the area and strong
directional and speed shear, the coastal areas of NYC and Long
Island will need to be monitored closely as the warm ocean
waters may locally support cells capable of rotation and
perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by frank 638 on Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:24 pm

0.60 in of rain i cant believe it already aug and it is nasty out there raw chilly rainy .is this summer or fall

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by frank 638 on Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:25 pm

64* in aug wow what is next

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:33 am

hey what do you guys see the weekend weather doing? it is conflicting on tv and web...tx
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:47 am

This weather just stinks at hotel nice outdoor pool wish could go out in sun.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey what do you guys see the weekend weather doing? it is conflicting on tv and web...tx

Looks a little unsettled, maybe a shower Saturday morning and chance of a t-storm Sunday, but nothing to cancel plans over as I see it....

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:56 am

I here euro weeklies look great
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:25 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:24 pm

JB pointed this out today.  GFS vs Euro regarding the MJO in the upcoming 2 weeks.   Quite the contrast. Another GFS Euro battle



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:54 am

amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans Neutral

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:58 am

sroc4 wrote:JB pointed this out today.  GFS vs Euro regarding the MJO in the upcoming 2 weeks.   Quite the contrast.  Another GFS Euro battle



And people wonder why the Euro is generally better.........if you can't get the energy source FOR THE GLOBE correct, how can you expect to get anything else right??

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:57 pm

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans Neutral

Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:06 pm

Oo lol whoops ahahaa my bad, y'all!!

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:17 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I here euro weeklies look great

Yes from JB says blocky with HP over SE Can, trough in the Ohio RV and ridge in the west.
We shall though skins.
Low solar is gives us boughts with High Lattitude blocking as we have seen this summer - hopefully they'll be more entrenched but not suppressive!

The weeklies have also been HORRENDOUS the last several months, so I'd be cautious, even though they support my previously establsihed excitement for this upcoming season. However, we have lost the warmth in the central Pacific oceans Neutral

Rb this was the monthlies season forecast by the euro. You are so right the weeklies were horrible. I know teh warmth has all but disappeared from teh central and western pac but there is some conflicting data for a warmer than neutral albeit slight region 3.4 and 4.

Def conflicting data Mugs regarding enso, but Ill tell you what.  The actual data, SST and SOI, has been screaming at another Nina.  Looking at the MSLP anomaly forecasts over the next 2 weeks the SOI looks to continue Mod-strong positive.  If that keeps up a La Nina is destined. Latest ONI is down as well.  

We are def in mostly neutral conditions, but we shall see going forward what the Sept/Oct/Nov time frame yields.  The forecasts and current conditions are nothing like what was predicted back in the spring however.  We should have been in the weak El Nino by now and that clearly is not the case.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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