Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by docstox12 on Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:14 am

60.9 DEGREES 93%

Got a good soaking last night, 1.07 inch in the bucket.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by frank 638 on Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:47 am

Is summer over for us for the Northeast because I don't see any heat waves coming up in the future looking at the longer range forecast temperature is supposed to be near or below average not that I am completing because I hate the heat and humidity

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:00 pm

Long lived Tornado warning with a history of damage in PA, wonder if those storms will hold up at all into the area, far western NJ has a watch.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:53 pm

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:25 am

A quick update on ENSO.  SST anomalies cont to head towards La Nina territory.  he SOI conts to be in the positive territory; although the 30day and 90day avg still is in neutral territory. The atmosphere as a whole wont typically respond as a true la nina or el nino until the conditions in the Trop Pac persistently remain in a specific state.  Think of it this way.  If a large Ferris wheel has been spinning in one direction for awhile, even though the forces on the wheel have been spinning it in the one direction have reversed it still takes time to slow the wheel before you then reverse its direction.  This is why when looking at something like the SOI the 30day and even more so the 90avg is a better indicator of the true state of ENSO.  The ONI is also a good indicator of ENSO in that it is a measure of multiple factors and gives a value that is an avg of all evaluated factors for a 3 month time frame.  So as you can see although latest conditions in the SST dept have shifted towards the La Nina state.............:







Current ONI and 90/30day SOI avg still aren't there.  Overall atmosphereic conditions have behaved in a more neutral to weak El Nino type state over North America rather than a La Nina, but if we cont to see SOI values in this positive state for the next month or so I would expect a warmer Sept and Oct.   
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/


The question is where are the ONI and SOI 90 day avgs in Nov Dec time frame?  Once consistently for 2-3months or more in a particular zone the more likely the Ferris wheel will spin in that direction.  We shall see.

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:53 am

Nice heavy batch of rain with a bit of thunder and lightning moving in now. Flood avisory was issued.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:20 am

aiannone wrote:Nice heavy batch of rain with a bit of thunder and lightning moving in now. Flood avisory was issued.



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:06 am

About 1.900 customers w/o power on LI
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:09 am

Picked up about 2.12 inches in a little less than 2 hours.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:37 pm

Sun is trying to peak out now. With a DP of 76 and an approaching front, we could see some decent storms this afternoon provided enough daytime heating/instability.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by EnyapWeather on Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:14 pm

Wow. My phone says at 4 it is supposed to rain 1.24’ in one hour.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:05 pm

Port Jefferson, LI this morning  Shocked 
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:09 pm

60% Chance of watch issuance!
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:30 pm

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:02 pm

Major clearing inbound for NYC and LI
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:06 pm

The storm headed this way look seriously mean.pretty solid line too with what look like some embedded super cells. Still cloudy here.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by algae888 on Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:32 pm

doc and cp get ready for some fall like weather late next week. nws disco.

"A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week.The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend."


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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:56 pm

Big bust here, .75" over the course of the whole day..oh well


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:30 pm

couple rumbles thunder and light rain. not had one good tstorm this yr.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by docstox12 on Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:21 am

algae888 wrote:doc and cp get ready for some fall like weather late next week.  nws disco.

"A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week.The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend."



Yep, that mid to late August cold evening event where we get into the 40's.That first hint of Fall coming. I'll be watching Al!
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by docstox12 on Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:22 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Big bust here, .75" over the course of the whole day..oh well

Bigger bust here Janet, only .27 for this whole event.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by amugs on Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:03 am

Hey gang,
Very busy and emotional few days for me with my oldest son leaving the nest going off to college at Penn State, College Park. Drove through the storms wow in the Poconos yesterday afternoon. Anyway, very cool end to August and we can possibly see a big storm with this set up, coastal or worse trop cyclone if this does happen.

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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:40 am


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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:16 pm

Come on rb really? A quick check proves this a hoax. Nasa never said that and it's not happening.
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Re: Dog days of AUGUST Discussions/Observations

Post by docstox12 on Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:51 am

Another morning in the 50's, 56.4 right now.Warm, in the 80's to Wednesday, then a cool period 70's-50's coming up.
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