2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

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2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:50 am

Since the most recent Long Range Thread is locked and since the only active discussions are for August 2017 Observations, Tropical Activity, and Banter, and since Frank has not logged in in over a week, I think I should create a new thread to discuss the upcoming 2017-18 winter.

Maybe the Advanced Forecasters can chime in but I am noticing somewhat of a double-edge sword when it comes to SST anomalies:



First off, check out the below normal temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.  La Nina conditions are showing and if the Nino 1.2 anomalies can hold, that may benefit us during the winter.

Now, let's get to the ugly: the blue blob in the North Pacific just east of 180 degrees longitude.  During those cold winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15, we had the red blob in that region.  If that persists through the winter, the northeast winter could be in trouble.  In fact, it could override the aforementioned cool pool in the ENSO region in terms of our winter.

Also, Joe Bastardi mentioned a couple of weeks ago that he expects December to be unseasonably mild in the northeast yet again.  Ugh!  When can we get a cold, snowy December.  While 2016 had a much better December than 2015 (although any December could be better than 2015 really), I would love to get that snow around Christmas-time.

Of course, the red blob that shaped the 2013-14 winter underwent development in November so nothing is set in stone yet.

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:15 pm

Thanks for the analysis. I see that large, dark red area just west of the 'blue blob'. Any potential for that red area to overcome the blue area?

I mean, it's August...it's not too early to start dreaming about a cold white winter is it?

Hope everyone is enjoying the summer!

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by Isotherm on Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:59 pm

Saw the Euro seasonal today in JB's post. Wish we could lock that in right now; it's ideal, and it has the type of winter I've been craving for awhile - namely one which maximizes the low sun angle period. Jumps into winter in November with a trough in the East, +PNA/-EPO across the West connecting with a robust -NAO/AO. That pattern continues through December, and looks like it reaches a climax in January with the deep trough and above normal precipitation. It then breaks down with a more furnace type look by February. I've always preferred to flush Feb/Mar down the toilet if we hit hard from Thanksgiving through Feb 1, much like 2010-11. Winters that go wire to wire from Nov-April, ala 1995-96, are extremely rare.

Do I believe it? Well, there are reasons to doubt it, but for now, we're in the classic "optimistic" part of the pre-season (in which we fantasize about a blockbuster winter before reality starts to take hold - hopefully not).
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:51 pm

Tom,

So true and the 500MB set up is ideal the brings us an early winter as some wold coin it starting in Mid Nov. Lots of High Latitude blocking for Omega and Banana High along with the elusive but famous Greenland block. I would sign with my blood right now for a winter that is being advertised right now by the EURO. We all things can change. Time will certainly tell.
SNOW FORECAST


500MB set up


Precip WOW


TEMPS - Feb skews the Nov - Jan cold which is about 2* BN


Enjoy this eye candy!

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:04 pm

Sunspots are solar activity is down and will be very low for the next week plus as per solar harm and NOAA FORECASTS

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2017 total: 56 days (25%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

12 out of the last 13 days we have had no solar activity of flares, spots, holes.

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:44 pm

Wow mugs post above looks really nice, hoping for a active winter season too of course.
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by frank 638 on Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:32 pm

I just found out on the news they were talking about the Farmers Almanac.  they were Saying for the northeast it so post to be  a cold and snowy winter

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:24 pm

frank 638 wrote:I just found out on the news they were talking about the Farmers Almanac.  they were Saying for the northeast it so post to be  a cold and snowy winter

I'll put about 0% of faith in the Farmers Almanac. It's basically an entertainment writers guess.

I agree with Tom I'll take a front loaded winter, mid November through January any day. Now I'll do that and sacrifice March but never would I sacrifice February, that's our best snow month and I need at least the first half of it.

With that said Late November to the first week in April is the ideal winter. It happens in the HV although rarer as the planet warms, I realize it's a real rarity on the coastal plain.

Can't wait for Winter.

Go Yankees, beat the Red Sucks this weekend.

Nice sweep of the Mutts, for anyone that wants a take back NY jersey the Mutts were selling they are 99 cents on e-bay right now.

I love you all my Mutt and Red Sucks friends out there but this is baseball. There's no friendships in baseball, at least during a game.
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by algae888 on Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:35 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
frank 638 wrote:I just found out on the news they were talking about the Farmers Almanac.  they were Saying for the northeast it so post to be  a cold and snowy winter

I'll put about 0% of faith in the Farmers Almanac. It's basically an entertainment writers guess.

I agree with Tom I'll take a front loaded winter, mid November through January any day. Now I'll do that and sacrifice March but never would I sacrifice February, that's our best snow month and I need at least the first half of it.

With that said Late November to the first week in April is the ideal winter. It happens in the HV although rarer as the planet warms, I realize it's a real rarity on the coastal plain.

Can't wait for Winter.

Go Yankees, beat the Red Sucks this weekend.

Nice sweep of the Mutts, for anyone that wants a take back NY jersey the Mutts were selling they are 99 cents on e-bay right now.

I love you all my Mutt and Red Sucks friends out there but this is baseball. There's no friendships in baseball, at least during a game.
can't wait for winter either cp. we get our first fall like days late next week!!! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by docstox12 on Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:58 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
frank 638 wrote:I just found out on the news they were talking about the Farmers Almanac.  they were Saying for the northeast it so post to be  a cold and snowy winter

I'll put about 0% of faith in the Farmers Almanac. It's basically an entertainment writers guess.

I agree with Tom I'll take a front loaded winter, mid November through January any day. Now I'll do that and sacrifice March but never would I sacrifice February, that's our best snow month and I need at least the first half of it.

With that said Late November to the first week in April is the ideal winter. It happens in the HV although rarer as the planet warms, I realize it's a real rarity on the coastal plain.

Can't wait for Winter.

Go Yankees, beat the Red Sucks this weekend.

Nice sweep of the Mutts, for anyone that wants a take back NY jersey the Mutts were selling they are 99 cents on e-bay right now.

I love you all my Mutt and Red Sucks friends out there but this is baseball. There's no friendships in baseball, at least during a game.

I think the Farmer's Almanac uses sunspot activity in their long range forecasts.Anyhoo, a broken clock is right twice a day,LOL, so sometimes their "cold and snowy" winter predictions do come true.They claim 80% accuracy but I would like to see their supposed 80% accuracy on a 50 year study of right and wrongs in this area.

Well said on a true late November through April winter CP.Scarcer than a Hen's tooth nowadays,1995-1996 still the
King" like Elvis in Rock and Roll (his 40th year anniversary of his passing was last Wednesday).I have no idea on the coming winter at this point in time but eventually clues will be more evident come November 1st.Here's hoping as well.

LOL, you have earned the right to gloat CP on the Yankee sweep but a few years ago we enjoyed sweeping you when the roles of stronger versus weaker teams was reversed.As the old Brooklyn Dodger Fans would say..."wait until next year!" You guys have your work cut out for you getting past Red Sox Suck and Houston.The Dodgers are a powerhouse this year as well as the Nats.As a NY Baseball Fan, would love to see a classic Yankee-Dodger World Series with the Dodgers winning,LOL.Always will remember that cassic 1963 WS where Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax made toothpicks out of those big Yankee bats!No offense, I'm a National league Fan until the end!
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:20 pm

Folks,
Ventrice tweeted this map out and this will have great implications on our winter weather here. To what degree from tis and my little expertise A strong fast start to winter and then ??? Maybe someone else can chime in on this. We have very low frequencies over the IO and W PAC with higher frequencies in the ENSO SOI regions. 



Last edited by amugs on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:31 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Aug 28, 2017 11:41 pm

Accuweather 90 day forecast has the first measurable snow for Orange County on Nov 18th. Historically that's a little late but when has the 90 day accuweather forecast ever been wrong, so take it to the bank.

46 here Saturday morning. Love the first chills of late summer.
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:32 pm

I hate to be a Debbie downer but given the status of this years Atlantic Hurricane Season as well as the SST anomalies and our current pattern, there are three analogs I have to the upcoming winter, one's which you won't like:

1996-97: 10.0" in NYC
2001-02: 3.5" in NYC
2007-08: 11.9" in NYC

Maybe things change but that's how it looks now...

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by algae888 on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:08 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I hate to be a Debbie downer but given the status of this years Atlantic Hurricane Season as well as the SST anomalies and our current pattern, there are three analogs I have to the upcoming winter, one's which you won't like:

1996-97: 10.0" in NYC
2001-02: 3.5" in NYC
2007-08: 11.9" in NYC

Maybe things change but that's how it looks now...

Mike do not know how you came up with those analogs but so far we have several positives going for us. Negative Qbo which should increase or should I say enhance poleward blocking which has been non-existent the last several years. The neutral enso State should not interfere with that so while not as good as a weak El Nino it should not hurt us. Also add in the solar minimum. My guess right now is we will see numerous cold shots coming down from arctic within the warm base state that we have been in for sometime ( global warming) should enhance precipitation and storms which is why we've seen so many above-normal snowfall winters since 2000. Not sure how the hurricane and tropical season play into Winter forecast like to know your thoughts on that.
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by sroc4 on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:24 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I hate to be a Debbie downer but given the status of this years Atlantic Hurricane Season as well as the SST anomalies and our current pattern, there are three analogs I have to the upcoming winter, one's which you won't like:

1996-97: 10.0" in NYC
2001-02: 3.5" in NYC
2007-08: 11.9" in NYC

Maybe things change but that's how it looks now...

Are you only basing your analogs on the SSTA and Hurricane season and nothing else?

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:30 pm

algae888 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:I hate to be a Debbie downer but given the status of this years Atlantic Hurricane Season as well as the SST anomalies and our current pattern, there are three analogs I have to the upcoming winter, one's which you won't like:

1996-97: 10.0" in NYC
2001-02: 3.5" in NYC
2007-08: 11.9" in NYC

Maybe things change but that's how it looks now...

Mike do not know how you came up with those analogs but so far we have several positives going for us. Negative Qbo which should increase or should I say enhance poleward blocking which has been non-existent the last several years. The neutral enso State should not interfere with that so while not as good as a weak El Nino it should not hurt us. Also add in the solar minimum. My guess right now is we will see numerous cold shots coming down from arctic within the warm base state that we have been in for sometime ( global warming) should enhance precipitation and storms which is why we've seen so many above-normal snowfall winters since 2000. Not sure how the hurricane and tropical season play into Winter forecast like to know your thoughts on that.

And to it that Greenland is off the charts for snow and ice and Canada is seeing cold this weekend from central to east. PAC looks like it is setting itself up and the IO is not going to hurt but rather help this winter. The two factors that are standing out are low solar and the Easterly QBO or N QBO. Our warm base state will be eroding (it is already) as we move ahead with low solar. When the largest body of water PAC starts to cool the atmosphere shall follow.

Our current pattern? Mike we have a huge ridge in he west and a trough over the Midwest that expands into the GL/NE - how is this a bad things. If we get this winter wise watch out kid with wave breaks galore in the NPAC region.

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by dkodgis on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:52 pm

What about arctic ice not growing much and the weak, anemic jet stream? Won't these have to be a bit more robust to get to a real winter?
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:01 am

dkodgis wrote:What about arctic ice not growing much and the weak, anemic jet stream? Won't these have to be a bit more robust to get to a real winter?
Don't know yet to be honest. Canada gets cold and we get a nice AL trough to anchor as has been the pattern these last 60 days the PNA will spike over the west and the trough sets up over the east coast. It has been low for some time and we had good winter despite it. Last couple had nothing to do with AI it was NINO Tropical Pacific driven.

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:34 pm

Accuweather 90 day.

First freeze in Orange County October 23 first measruable snow November 24. Both two weeks later than the historical norm. I say this knowing full well the day to day accuracy of the 90 day is near 0%.
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by dkodgis on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:47 pm

I can say tonight I may have to put the heat on!
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by sroc4 on Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:50 am

I know we have all been watching Irma now for what seems like an eternity, but very soon we will turn our attention to the Golden Period that is the winter months ahead. Take a look at the SST anomalies in the Trop Pac. Quite the La Nina brewing. We have come a long way from the prev forecasted weak El Nino many thought we currently would be in now headed into the fall and winter months. Def not the case as of early Sept.





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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:12 am

SST in La Nina Mode






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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:13 am



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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by frank 638 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:18 pm

Amugs stupid question is this good or bad for us .for us snow weenies

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:32 pm

frank 638 wrote:Amugs stupid question is this good or bad for us .for us snow weenies

It could go either way depending on many factors. A mod La Nina typically wants to promote a Ridge in the SE( typically not good for snow esp along the coast in the NE). This east phase QBO we have started will likely influence our winter as well. Alot will depend on if high latitude blocking develops or not. Transiently vs sustained etc. Siberian snow cover this fall may influence high lat blocking as well.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

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