2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:34 pm

East Based La Nina bottom one is for an EB Nina with an EB QBO
QBO composite for Dec umm where does one sign??


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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:04 am

I have seen weather enthusiasts using 1995-96 as an analog, especially given that it was a warm October in the east with a La Nina.

What they need to know is that by early November 1995, the -NAO/-AO couplet was in full swing and would have an influence in the overall pattern for much of the following five months. If this winter is going to even resemble 1995-96, we need the blocking to develop first.

Heck, October 2007 was also a warm October in the east with a La Nina. How come nobody is using 2007-08 as an analog (NYC had 11.9" of snow the entire winter)?

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:55 am

Math23x7 wrote:I have seen weather enthusiasts using 1995-96 as an analog, especially given that it was a warm October in the east with a La Nina.  

What they need to know is that by early November 1995, the -NAO/-AO couplet was in full swing and would have an influence in the overall pattern for much of the following five months. If this winter is going to even resemble 1995-96, we need the blocking to develop first.

Heck, October 2007 was also a warm October in the east with a La Nina.  How come nobody is using 2007-08 as an analog (NYC had 11.9" of snow the entire winter)?
Mike most of the winter forecast that I have read are using 2007 and 8 as an analog if you think about that year it was a very gradient set up with areas on the Connecticut Massachusetts Border North had a very good winter if it's the same set up and drop that gradient a hundred miles south we also could have a good winter here. I believe we will be very close to that gradient this year so areas in central Southern Jersey South may have a tough Winter We are on the border and areas North could have a very good one that's the way I'm looking at it right now
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by amugs on Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:54 am

From Vendor Weather who has done a good job with winter forecasts the past few years.

https://www.vencoreweather.com/20172018-winter-outlook

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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by Isotherm on Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:04 pm

A few inquiries to ponder:



[1] Are the geopotential height rises progged by model guidance over the NATL consistent with current hemispheric and global physical forcing mechanisms?



[2] If yes, are those forcing mechanisms indicative of an ephemeral pulse of favorability, or will they persist overall for the duration of the cold season?



[3] With respect to any seasonal guidance suggestive of a mean -NAO/AO pattern, what factors have or have not altered over the past year which would enable that guidance to verify? Conversely, concerning any seasonal guidance indicative of a mean +NAO/AO - are the variables which aided in inducing a stronger than normal vortex still present?



NAO prognostication is multifactorial, so it is important to examine all factors.



My opinion is that there is a legitimate phase change occurring, due in part to positive feedback with vortex weakening via wave 2 forcing, which, contemporaneously with poleward -AAM propagation and other top-down factors such as easterly shear stress, will permit a response in the troposphere. However, in the medium to longer term, the tropospheric pattern begins to evolve such that it projects more strongly onto a vortex intensification precursor. This will complicate matters down the road, specifically with regards to the extent to which the upcoming -NAO action center persists. That question will be parsed out as we get a little closer; let's first enter the medium range of block initiation.


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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by dkodgis on Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:27 pm

This is why I love this board. I don't often read and not understand what I read. Time to write that tuition check. Very Happy
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Re: 2017-18 Winter Discussion thread

Post by Isotherm on Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:23 am

It appears to me that the upcoming NATL block initiation is due - at least in part - to the circum-global propagation of upper divergence associated with the prior MJO forcing. We recently had a robust phase 8 disturbance, which, while it weakened significantly into the COD on the CPC diagrams, one can still track the eastward propagation of the -VP through the Atlantic and into Africa October 30-Nov7th. This signal induces planetary wave propagation usually resulting in sufficient turbulence to influence the NAO modality approximately 7-10 days later - which, to no surprise, seems to be initiating circa the 13th-15th of November. The forcing for the -NAO is certainly there, but does it have the maintenance power of some of our impressive early blocking stretches such as 2010, 2009, 1995?
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