Tracking Hurricane Irma

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Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:18 pm

All eyes are on Hurricane Irma as she slowly jogs west toward the Lesser Antilles. Question is does she pass through the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea (southern track likely heading toward GOM), or does she go north of there heading directly to the Southeast/Northeast U.S. coastlines. If she takes the latter track it means she can also re-curve out to sea. Essentially we're looking at 3 possible tracks.



Today's EURO slowed the storm down to a point that it missed the cut-off trough located over the eastern U.S. However, the WAR (West Atlantic Ridge) was able to build again and keep Irma on a west-southwest trajectory and likely show landfall near the Carolina's. I think the key trend today is the storm is slowing down which means it may mess the mid-level trough that tries to capture it and pull it toward the coast. But because there is a block, it does not make it an automatic that Irma will slide out to sea.

I do not have much to add at this point. I am refraining from providing too much analysis simply because there is no consensus with operationals or ensembles. Plus, if the trend to slow Irma down is true then we're back in a 10-15 Day time frame. So...enjoy your holiday weekend and come back Tuesday to see where we're at Smile

Here is a discussion from the NHC on Irma.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The small eye is
becoming less distinct, with both microwave and visible imagery
indicating the presence of a forming outer eyewall. Satellite
intensity estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced
to 95 kt. Some further weakening is possible over the next day or
so while Irma moves over marginally warm SSTs and continues the
eyewall replacement. After that time, the environment should be
generally conducive for some restrengthening, although forecasting
the timing of eyewall replacement cycles is next to impossible. The
biggest change from yesterday are the long-term wind shear
predictions from the global models, which shows a little more shear.
Still, the shear is not that strong, and the hurricane will be
moving over 29C SSTs. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is reduced
somewhat from the previous one, but remains near or slightly above
the model consensus.

Irma has turned a little bit to the left, now estimated to be
moving 285/11. The general synoptic situation remains well
established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move
west-southwestward through the weekend. An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.5N 37.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.7N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 18.5N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.0N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 51.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.7N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 59.5W 110 KT 125 MPH


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:20 pm

12z GEFS show a wide spread


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:21 pm

Irma weakened today but it looks like another eye is forming


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:22 pm

Irmagawd.


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Irmagawd.

I saw her earlier, was def regaining, imagine when shes a cat 4 or 5, what she will look like dayumm.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:47 pm

Frank, that was clever ahahaha i seent what you did there Razz

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:57 pm

Is their still something behind Irma that could hit the consus?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:08 pm


GEFS
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by larryrock72 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:11 pm

Prediction for Irma Jersey Shore impacts???? 20-30 mph winds w/gusts 40mph. Precip .025-.050.....Gonna set the bar low. No Disappointments. LOL!!

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:13 pm

larryrock72 wrote:Prediction for Irma Jersey Shore impacts???? 20-30 mph winds w/gusts 40mph. Precip .025-.050.....Gonna set the bar low. No Disappointments. LOL!!

Forecast:

Sunny and 75, calm breeze: 50%

Tropical Impacts: 49%

World ends tomorrow: 1%
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:16 pm

5pm advisory should be interesting. She looks like she really strengthened today.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Math23x7 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:23 pm

A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea. Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs. Without question, it has trended northeast.

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:34 pm

Math23x7 wrote:A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea.  Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs.  Without question, it has trended northeast.

If you think about it...a rapidly strengthening hurricane tends to move slowly. Since models show Irma deepening to a major hurricane, it makes sense models slow her down and thus miss the capture with the trough. However, is the block strong enough to still keep her near the coast? We'll see what happens.

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:42 pm

Good pt. Frank. There's not even a guess if the block would b strong enough? I mean a cat 4 or 5 couldn't that pretty much plow anything? And that's assuming the slowdown actually happens. Alot possibilities on table go b a long ways.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:44 pm

aiannone wrote:5pm advisory should be interesting. She looks like she really strengthened today.
she's gotta bba major again imo. When will it be close enough for recon? Once we get that data a lot could change.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:48 pm

12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

You're going to have to show some images haha
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:55 pm

Math23x7 wrote:A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea.  Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs.  Without question, it has trended northeast.

Windshield wipers affect
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:56 pm



Little shift north with the track
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:58 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:A lot of members of the 12Z EURO ensemble take Irma out to sea.  Wouldn't shock me if more members go out to sea in future runs.  Without question, it has trended northeast.

Windshield wipers affect

That is EXACTLY the question I was beginning to ponder myself, Skins.

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:01 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

You're going to have to show some images haha


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

??
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:06 pm

Math what is the basis or tjis assumption. We have a recurve g typhoon thatbis going to be a major player here and effect he whole.downstream H5 and total atmospjere. The wsterlies are way North and from all guidance and and maps show tjis so they will have little effect on her. It will be basically the trough and ridge.  If you get a bridged block over the top if your WAR builds west and then she gets trapped basically underneath. Lots of time and Steve D talks about this major concern. Unlike Matthew last year as some have referred to this is not nearly the same set up with a trough hanging over the east.

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z Canadian Ensembles are just peachy Brick Brick

You're going to have to show some images haha


Jeez. Some of these long range tracks (albeit a shot in the dark at this point) paint a very dire scenario for these parts of they were to come to fruition.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:26 pm

Well that was short lived weakening now almost cat 4. Cmc ensembles wow yikes a lot of heavy hitters even up here. Are euro out yet?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

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