Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:35 am

Good Morning,

A renewed thread on Irma to provide the latest updates. I'm sure members on here have family who reside in Florida or parts of the SE Coast / Mid-Atlantic who could use valuable information.



A Florida landfall is looking less likely. There was a noticeable shift east in Irma's track on yesterday's and this morning's model runs. It is safe to say Gulf coast landfall is off the table. Yesterday, I felt out to sea was off the table too, and for the most part I think it is, but there are some Ensemble members that try to take Irma out to sea as they recognize a weaker block to its Northeast.



The GFS has actually been most consistent in NOT tracking Irma into Hispaniola/Cuba and keeping her on a northern track. The EURO last night caved to the GFS in the sense it does not take Irma into Cuba. Therefore, the EURO also keeps Irma east of FL and makes landfall in the GA/SC boarder. On the image above, you will see that the trough is trending stronger indicative by the dark shade of blue over the Ohio Valley / Northeast. The overall trough seems more expansive which suggests Irma will feel its effects and indeed make that sharp turn to the north. This is another reason why Irma seems likely to avoid Cuba, meaning she will remain a very strong and dangerous Hurricane. I'm not sure if she will maintain her Cat 5 status for her entire duration until landfall, but there is a good chance she will. There will be occasional weakening as she undergoes ERC (eye replacement cycle) but I think it will be semantics by that point.



As mentioned, 06z GEFS have some members that take Irma out to sea. The combination of a weaker High Pressure over Bermuda and a stronger trough that allows Irma to come north earlier, give her some room to head out to sea. However, there are other pieces at play that will try to lure Irma into the U.S. for landfall. There is upper air energy on the backside of the trough that tries to phase into the storm. Instead of phasing, what's most likely to happen is an upper level low will form and try to pivot Irma into the U.S. This is where the forecast becomes very difficult. If the ULL (upper level low) forms in the Mid-Atlantic as opposed to the Southeast, then Irma has a path to make landfall awfully close to our area. Most likely, landfall would be in the Mid-Atlantic but you can see there are few GEFS members that track Irma over our area (but no direct landfall!!).



She looks powerful again this morning.

I say we need yet another day to figure out Irma's destiny. Trends suggest a track east of FL with landfall into the Carolina's. But out to sea is back on the table it seems, and so does a further north track into our area though I do NOT believe direct landfall here is possible. If Irma does make it this far north, she obviously will not be a Cat 5 hurricane. She may not even be a Hurricane. But those details are not yet available.


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:36 am

Here is sroc's morning update:

GOOD MORNING!!



Well the trough digging in is strong and vigorous.  The next 48hrs will be telling.  Normally you wouldn't be using the NAM as a model to predict the fate of a tropical system but in this case I think we can.  One of the most important players, if not the most important regarding where the turn occurs, in the entire equation has been the mean trough that is digging into the central plains and Ohio River alley.  
This link is an amazing sat loop to look at:

=8&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider]http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=11312&y=5480&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=8&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider



It is an anomalously strong trough in response to the recurving typhoon.  In past experiences the NAM has done exceptionally well with handling of such strong dynamic set ups for the east coast so I am using it in conjunction with the rest of the global models to see the true dynamics of the trough and ridging features.  It is def the northern and eastern most track soln, but may be leading the way here for additional trends east based on the below H5 set up.  I would argue that extrapolated out Irma would Cont N fromhere; then maybe even a tad NNE before interacting with the trailing s/w; then being captured before being pulled back NNW into the coast on this run.



Of course the wiper effect could come into play and a shift back west is certainly possible, but it appears clear to me based off model trends, and current observations it the eastern half of Fla and points N and E of that that we need to focus on.  And yes we are def still in play up here from some kind of effects from Irma.  Not sure what that ceiling is regarding effects, but again within the next 48hrs we will know ALOT.

Hey....WE TRACK!!!
What a Face

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:10 am

Going b a interesting week or 2 still lol amazing how so much can change ots was off the table not gom is. Sorry rb...at least it did show it for a good while. Next think u know we will be back to that solution. Honestly I have no clue what's gonna happen and fl is still convinced they go have major landfall and nhc shows that.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:15 am

Wonder just how strong it will get...
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:28 am

thank you frank and scroc..for morning update...just read that Barbuda had recorded 155mph winds before the station went off line...omg..those poor people...
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:35 am

Some horrifying pics from St. Marten






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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by essexcountypete on Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:40 am

This video from St Martin seems like hell on earth...
https://twitter.com/kurtsiegelin/status/905403206121005058

A lot of news, images and video here...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:17 am

I'm not surprised that the models have trended east. The one reason is that the WAR has been modeled too strong in the long range all summer. Troughs have been the more dominate feature this summer, and this time will be no exception. I'm sticking to my guns with the track of Irma. Landfall in the NC outer banks. From there I have no idea. Does the ridge build back in and the storm treks NW, does it find a weakness and turns OTS, or does it come up the coast? Nervous times ahead for sure.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sabamfa on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:23 am

Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:27 am

sabamfa wrote:Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

Wait for all the 12z runs to finish...euro done by about 2-2:30 Euro ensebles by about 4

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:28 am

sabamfa wrote:Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

lol FL is boarding up all areas like that..
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:29 am

sabamfa wrote:Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

Wait until this afternoons runs of models come in, but Fort Myers Beach is on the WEST side of Florida. Irma no longer seems to be tracking on Florida's west side. She either wants to make landfall in east Florida or stay off its coast entirely (no landfall). However, he would still see Hurricane force winds and some surge even if Irma tracks east of there. Maybe you are better off finding a hotel inland (off the island) and away from the east coast of Florida? Could be cheaper than a flight. But a flight out is obviously safest bet.


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by aiannone on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:33 am

This has been a horror show trying to inform my family down in West Palm beach lol.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sabamfa on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:34 am

sroc4 wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

Wait for all the 12z runs to finish...euro done by about 2-2:30 Euro ensebles by about 4

Thanks!

RJB8525 wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

lol FL is boarding up all areas like that..

He's not in a mandatory evacuation at the moment and I'm not exactly down there to be able to speak with anyone that has been through this before. =\

Frank_Wx wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Booked a very expensive flight for my father in law last night to get out of Fort Myers Beach, Fl (island on the golf coast). We can cancel until 5:30 tonight or so. He leaves Friday morning. Thoughts?

Wait until this afternoons runs of models come in, but Fort Myers Beach is on the WEST side of Florida. Irma no longer seems to be tracking on Florida's west side. She either wants to make landfall in east Florida or stay off its coast entirely (no landfall). However, he would still see Hurricane force winds and some surge even if Irma tracks east of there. Maybe you are better off finding a hotel inland (off the island) and away from the east coast of Florida? Could be cheaper than a flight. But a flight out is obviously safest bet.


Thanks, Frank. He has no car, so anything that relied on him traveling further than he can on a bike is out of the question. It was pretty much flight out or hope someone down there could help him if necessary.

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by essexcountypete on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:46 am

Cloud top temperatures in Irma's t-storms on Sept 4th were around -117F

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/irma-atlantic-ocean
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:54 am

12z NAM coming in now and it looks like Irma would miss making landfall in Florida. Already made the turn north at this time frame.


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:58 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM coming in now and it looks like Irma would miss making landfall in Florida. Already made the turn north at this time frame.


Does this mean possible to come up coast more?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by aiannone on Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:59 am

11am Advisory shifts east.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:04 am

the more it shifts..the more they are talking about landfall in FL on TV. very confusing they aren't mentioning anything different at all to the people
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:08 am

RJB8525 wrote:the more it shifts..the more they are talking about landfall in FL on TV. very confusing they aren't mentioning anything different at all to the people

Is this like my local met who claimed spotty showers today?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:09 am

mikeypizano wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:the more it shifts..the more they are talking about landfall in FL on TV. very confusing they aren't mentioning anything different at all to the people

Is this like my local met who claimed spotty showers today?

yep
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:10 am

JB

OMG this is not a good scenario but one that is coming into play - why FN SANVU the recurving Typhoon and the Scandinavian Block!!
Donna 1955 peeps - history repeating itslef


Deep trough over teh OHV is going to pull her up and in IMO

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by billg315 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:12 am

If this thing keeps trending east I frankly hope it goes all the way east and OTS because even a hit on NC, with a storm this strong at landfall, could have big effects on us if it swings north from there through the mid-Atlantic and NJ. I'm thinking a category 5 takes a long time to weaken even over land, and these storms tend to accelerate as they get further north.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:16 am

I agree I believe Donna was still a cat 2 up here. Depends if she would stay well inlsnd or just along the shore. Def interested to see where she goes I thought fl was pretty set.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:40 am

12z gfs is s and w a bit from 0z.
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