Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:16 pm

TheAresian wrote:I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
I knew what you meant..I had just heard about Barbuda..and responded....this is so sad and scary for those in the line of fire..hope all works out for you daughter!!
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:23 pm

Holllllllly


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:24 pm

San Juan, PR getting rocked


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Snow88 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:30 pm

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by TheAresian on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:32 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
TheAresian wrote:I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
I knew what you meant..I had just heard about Barbuda..and responded....this is so sad and scary for those in the line of fire..hope all works out for you daughter!!

Thanks. She's watching it closely. Barring a miracle shift east, she's evacuating in 48 hours. This isn't the storm to take chances with.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:San Juan, PR getting rocked

At least it did not make direct landfall, what do you think winds are in san juan 125? Thats a total guess.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by algae888 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:38 pm

Jman San Juan is in the 50s and the Northeast part of the island had a gust to 72 miles per hour. That's per The Weather Channel a couple of hours ago. Don't forget those strong winds are just in a very small area. Rains and mudslides are probably going to cause the most damage there
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:43 pm


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:45 pm

St. Marten also decimated


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by aiannone on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:53 pm

Why are the models showing Jose moving backwards towards africa? Having trouble dealing with it because of Irma?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:07 pm

ERC happening and once this does bang zoom she will intensify, if that can be imagined!!



You can tell by an outer (yellow) band from teh eye wall is forming
ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Who is this person? Reliable source, what does she mean the "line"? If thats true utterly terrible.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:14 pm

algae888 wrote:Jman San Juan is in the 50s and the Northeast part of the island had a gust to 72 miles per hour. That's per The Weather Channel a couple of hours ago. Don't forget those strong winds are just in a very small area. Rains and mudslides are probably going to cause the most damage there
Thank goodness, yes your right, those winds are in the eyewall duh, but yeah mudsleds will be bad but i do not think it will be nearly as bad as barbuda or st. maarten.  I see now why no one would ever want to experience this.  Those pics are hard to look at.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:16 pm

amugs wrote:ERC happening and once this does bang zoom she will intensify, if that can be imagined!!



You can tell by an outer (yellow) band from teh eye wall is forming
ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle
Well GFS has been steadfast on going sub 900mb, wouldnt take a lot for that to happen, wonder if we get 200mph winds.  I heard this is strongest hurricane wasn't matthew 205mph at one pt?  Or is it just in this particular region.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:


That Radar loop is indicative of concentric rings Frank, aka double eye wall.  Likely the start of another EWRC.  

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:24 pm

RGEM range...like the NAM geek



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by TheAresian on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:36 pm

About how long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jwalsh on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Who is this person? Reliable source, what does she mean the "line"? If thats true utterly terrible.
The first two sentences I believe are correct. The PM of Antigua and Barbuda was making a speech about the damage to the latter island, never mentioned anything about 1000+ deaths. She was referring to a line of the speech which I'm assuming she wildly misheard, since only one fatality has been reported in Barbuda. Nevertheless, the PM still said that the island is "practically uninhabitable "
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:55 pm

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:16 pm

Recon found 909mb!
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm

Yet they marked 916mb huh.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm

UT OH WOW
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 909.1 mb (26.85 inHg)

What I tell ya she was strengthening f it let's get sub 900 we are getting that big time in here path over 85* plus bath water that a deep with latent heat and no shear. 

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:25 pm

amugs wrote:UT OH WOW
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 909.1 mb (26.85 inHg)

What I tell ya she was strengthening f it let's get sub 900 we are getting that big time in here path over 85* plus bath water that a deep with latent heat and no shear. 
Yeah they for some reason did not note that as the pressure though.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:26 pm

Miami beach mandatory evacuations start tom
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:32 pm

Just saw someone post this on FB.

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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