Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:58 am

GFS at hr 84 about to show a trough split. Irma likely turns N from here then sling shots into Ga/Sc somewhere

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:08 pm

Bingo!!


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by algae888 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:20 pm

Yes scott and she ends up near Chicago LOL this is one devastating storm probably billions in damage when all is said and done
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:Bingo!!


Look at little jose where does he go
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:53 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Bingo!!


Look at little jose where does he go

Poor little Jose meanders harmlessly out in the mid Atlantic.  Looks like he tries to make a friend toward the end


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:04 pm

The Canadian actually landfalls in NC then heads toward DC. We get heavy rain.

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:06 pm


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:14 pm

According to this the latest recon measured a 170kt or 195mph surface wind speed. Incredible:


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by mikeypizano on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:According to this the latest recon measured a 170kt or 195mph surface wind speed.  Incredible:


Will this make Irma the strongest on record?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:22 pm

12Z GEFS back west...

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 pm

12z UKMET track...overall track is similar to GFS except GFS does not touch Cuba


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 pm

GEFS


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:26 pm

Miami / SE FL better be on alert at this point. GEFS clustered over that area

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:26 pm

St. Marten:










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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:51 pm

euro...she is a rollin

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:55 pm

So assuming the c pulls it's track and has it a much weaker I would suspect she would actually b stronger if made up this way. Still long ways to go...how many days we said that now?
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:01 pm

out through 30 so far euro the same

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Disneyprincess1592 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:02 pm

If this rides the coast what does this look like for central Florida?

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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:12 pm

Through 48 euro almost identicle to 12z GFS in position of irma and H 5 set up

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:22 pm

Miami seems like ground zero today

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by aiannone on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:29 pm

This is really not looking good for my fam down in West Palm beach FL
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:29 pm

EURO just showed the worst case scenario for Miami and all of eastern FL


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:30 pm

Then it re-emerges into the ocean for SC landfall


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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by algae888 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:31 pm

sroc4 wrote:Miami seems like ground zero today
and then Hilton head island. double landfall.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:31 pm










_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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