Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Oh wow, the trough is much stronger, weaker ridge, looks like the trough is trying to bring her up the coast here
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Seriously OMG totally misses FL, it could come up here, okay so we are now in another snag in the models damnit lol, this is great for FL if true but not for someone else!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
And it looks like she's gonna strengthen after making the turn.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
I swear if this pulls a 180 to the GFS 10 days ago wow.Sanchize06 wrote:Uh oh
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
It's captured now, coming up NNE toward Hatteras
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Apologies for the banter, but imagine the amount of grief weathermen will get if this things ends up missing Fla. completely.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
So wait I'm confused is Florida getting clobbered or not
Disneyprincess1592- Posts : 34
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Guys hr 81 its headded NNW, I think if extrapolated out this would have near direct impoacts on the area wow! They cannot pass this over.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
This is a model that has had a decent track record in recent years, its not a end all could be a hiccup, but it def throws a wrench in the mix.Disneyprincess1592 wrote:So wait I'm confused is Florida getting clobbered or not
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Shows a 950 just south of Delaware. Looks to becoming right towards NJ.
EnyapWeather- Posts : 57
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
oly crap this would be a direct landfall in NJ or NYC if extrapolated unless it changes its due north trek. Floyd anyone but 10x stronger, or Irene.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
NAM FTW!!!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
One of the pros on here Frank sroc rb? What do you think, this is wayyy diff than we have seen, a blip or are we back in the game, and from the looks of this run it would be majorly bad news.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
What do ya think? possible? a direct hit on the area? I really thought it was set in stone, oh now i gotta stay up for the other modelsnutleyblizzard wrote:NAM FTW!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Jman, I may be evacing to jersey just to be safe, this run is making me feel like I shouldn't but I don't wanna get stuck.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
and now tonight's model runs will be interesting
pdubz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
THE H5 PATTERN has totally changed from the Rockies on East the ULL over the NE is ridiculous strong and we have a Fujiwara effect with Jose puling on her tail. This would be a major win for Fla but absolutely catastrophic for the Del, NJ, NY region again. Extrapolated out its a NJ Shore Hit or Directly into.......................NYC!!
Weathermen would be absolutely blistered by this if this were to occur!
Weathermen would be absolutely blistered by this if this were to occur!
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Mugs
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
GFS 10 days ago had this 0Z suite will be huggggeee tonight.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
What are the times of the models again?
pdubz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Please tell me this isn't "that blizzard" all over again.
I blame the solar storm for model mayhem.
I blame the solar storm for model mayhem.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
omg.. .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Mugs the MC for the forum! I see the drastic changes wow, this isnt a small change from 18z its huge, NYC would be in eye or on east side would be terrible, i cannot imagine if we are go be prepare for this in 3-4 days versus FL in 2. wow....amugs wrote:GFS 10 days ago had this 0Z suite will be huggggeee tonight.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Sure its possible. New data has been ingested in the models for the 0z suite. My gut tells me its just an off run, but it can't be discounted entirely either. Next up is GFS. If it shows something similar, this place will explode.jmanley32 wrote:What do ya think? possible? a direct hit on the area? I really thought it was set in stone, oh now i gotta stay up for the other modelsnutleyblizzard wrote:NAM FTW!!!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
Not a model lol NAM
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
no actually the NAM did really well with a bunch of snow events, all here now are using the SR models to some extent, granted 84 hr NAM is not in good range but its concerning.weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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