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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:02 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. affraid  affraid .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...

Not a model lol NAM

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. affraid  affraid .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
no actually the NAM did really well with a bunch of snow events, all here now are using the SR models to some extent, granted 84 hr NAM is not in good range but its concerning.

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:04 pm

It nailed the blizzard in march...
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:04 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:NAM FTW!!! Thumbs up
What do ya think? possible?  a direct hit on the area? I really thought it was set in stone, oh now i gotta stay up for the other models
Sure its possible. New data has been ingested in the models for the 0z suite. My gut tells me its just an off run, but it can't be discounted entirely either. Next up is GFS. If it shows something similar, this place will explode.
00z is not an off run, my gut tells me the GFS is going to be east, maybe not this much, if it is oh boy
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:05 pm

listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:06 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?

I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:08 pm

Other forums are laughing at it.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:08 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?

I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
I wasnt even aware there was a solar storm going on, no wonder my cell keeps dropping calls.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:09 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?

I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
sorry I did not see your post......omg..this is just crazy...would you not like to be a fly on the wall at NHC right now...
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Post by Snow88 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:10 pm

All the Nams are exactly alike

Up the coast
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?

I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
I wasnt even aware there was a solar storm going on, no wonder my cell keeps dropping calls.

there is a solar flare happening...on a happy note we might be able to see northern light tom night....sorry this part banter
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Other forums are laughing at it.

That poor NAM. Despite having first nailed other storms recently, it'll never be respected.

However —— it does have a strong handle on 500 mb trends......
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Post by hyde345 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:11 pm

I wouldn't put too much credence in one run of nam. NHC just went to hurricane warning for southern florida. I wouldn't be surprised if GFS came a little east but would be shocked if it was anything like nam.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:12 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?

I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
sorry I did not see your post......omg..this is just crazy...would you not like to be a fly on the wall at NHC right now...

Haha, no worries at all. And YES—now inside 48 hrs, they just saw that at the NHC are are like What a Face
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:13 pm

what time is the next run again..11.45?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:13 pm

Woah this could be bad, when will it hit? do you think there will be mass power outages?

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Woah this could be bad, when will it hit? do you think there will be mass power outages?

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings

psted an article in banter for you Smile
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:22 pm

This posted on another site.

[size=13]I was looking at the water vapor imagery for clues and noticed that Katia seemed to be holding that trough back. Could be something that all the 00Z runs pick up on?
[/size]
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:25 pm

*I know I knowwww* none of us are crazy about him, but Steve DiMart seems really worried about latest NAM. And I hate to say it, but he's often right.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:31 pm

Look at the 250mb wind heights it grabs ahold of Irma and throws her right at us.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:*I know I knowwww* none of us are crazy about him, but Steve DiMart seems really worried about latest NAM. And I hate to say it, but he's often right.
Is he, and I will give him credit that he is giving it slim chance its right, but 8/30 we had similar runs from the other models. 00z cant come fast enough lol, GFS soon lets see.  And even if GFS isnt the same could shift on another run, there def seeems to be changes that are still possible.  The G4 storm was just cancelled.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:34 pm

Ridge looks slightly weaker thru hr 24 on GFS, but can't imagine the trough is going to capture it

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Post by Guest Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:38 pm

GFS Hr 36 shows an almost perfect split of of islands on either side. You couldn't steer it more perfectly with a remote control.

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:40 pm

Starting to turn north at hr 42, slight interaction with the trough, probably not enough, but we'll see

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Post by Snow88 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:40 pm

GFS is not like the Nam

Nam must had bad data
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:Im not buying the west wobble at this time.  I wish I had time to explain.  In short I believe the models are underestimating just how far south the trough actually is.  If you look closely at the initializations of the various models, esp in the GOM, the steering flow does not match up with the obsevered Sat imagery.  The entire NW 1/2 of the GOM has a ENE asterly flow where as the models, look at euro, thinks its actually moving WSW for this time frame.  In addition the steering flow on models at initiation on and N of Cuba right now do not match with observation.  This is likely occurring due to the inability to intialize the pressure at the actual pressure.  This small but important feature "MAY" be the reson the actual track ends up 50-70 miles east of what the west wobble indicates.  

Not ready to buy into the NAM just yet. We will see what we look like on sat in the am.

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Post by Guest Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:45 pm

Is there any way this thing actually gets sub 900mb?

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