Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
Not a model lol NAM
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
no actually the NAM did really well with a bunch of snow events, all here now are using the SR models to some extent, granted 84 hr NAM is not in good range but its concerning.weatherwatchermom wrote:omg.. .someone..please make this insanity stop...is this for real..how accurate is the nam model..I thought we were never to say the name...or is that just for snow storms...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
It nailed the blizzard in march...
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
00z is not an off run, my gut tells me the GFS is going to be east, maybe not this much, if it is oh boynutleyblizzard wrote:Sure its possible. New data has been ingested in the models for the 0z suite. My gut tells me its just an off run, but it can't be discounted entirely either. Next up is GFS. If it shows something similar, this place will explode.jmanley32 wrote:What do ya think? possible? a direct hit on the area? I really thought it was set in stone, oh now i gotta stay up for the other modelsnutleyblizzard wrote:NAM FTW!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Other forums are laughing at it.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
I wasnt even aware there was a solar storm going on, no wonder my cell keeps dropping calls.SoulSingMG wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
sorry I did not see your post......omg..this is just crazy...would you not like to be a fly on the wall at NHC right now...SoulSingMG wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
All the Nams are exactly alike
Up the coast
Up the coast
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
jmanley32 wrote:I wasnt even aware there was a solar storm going on, no wonder my cell keeps dropping calls.SoulSingMG wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
there is a solar flare happening...on a happy note we might be able to see northern light tom night....sorry this part banter
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
jmanley32 wrote:Other forums are laughing at it.
That poor NAM. Despite having first nailed other storms recently, it'll never be respected.
However —— it does have a strong handle on 500 mb trends......
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
I wouldn't put too much credence in one run of nam. NHC just went to hurricane warning for southern florida. I wouldn't be surprised if GFS came a little east but would be shocked if it was anything like nam.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
weatherwatchermom wrote:sorry I did not see your post......omg..this is just crazy...would you not like to be a fly on the wall at NHC right now...SoulSingMG wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:listen..please don't laugh at me...I know nothing about how weather works...can the solar flare that is happening have anything to do with how the models are picking the information up or how the storm is performing?
I JUST SAID THIIIIIIIIS
Haha, no worries at all. And YES—now inside 48 hrs, they just saw that at the NHC are are like
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
what time is the next run again..11.45?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Woah this could be bad, when will it hit? do you think there will be mass power outages?
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
jmanley32 wrote:Woah this could be bad, when will it hit? do you think there will be mass power outages?
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
psted an article in banter for you
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
This posted on another site.
[size=13]I was looking at the water vapor imagery for clues and noticed that Katia seemed to be holding that trough back. Could be something that all the 00Z runs pick up on?
[/size]
[size=13]I was looking at the water vapor imagery for clues and noticed that Katia seemed to be holding that trough back. Could be something that all the 00Z runs pick up on?
[/size]
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
*I know I knowwww* none of us are crazy about him, but Steve DiMart seems really worried about latest NAM. And I hate to say it, but he's often right.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Look at the 250mb wind heights it grabs ahold of Irma and throws her right at us.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Is he, and I will give him credit that he is giving it slim chance its right, but 8/30 we had similar runs from the other models. 00z cant come fast enough lol, GFS soon lets see. And even if GFS isnt the same could shift on another run, there def seeems to be changes that are still possible. The G4 storm was just cancelled.SoulSingMG wrote:*I know I knowwww* none of us are crazy about him, but Steve DiMart seems really worried about latest NAM. And I hate to say it, but he's often right.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Ridge looks slightly weaker thru hr 24 on GFS, but can't imagine the trough is going to capture it
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
GFS Hr 36 shows an almost perfect split of of islands on either side. You couldn't steer it more perfectly with a remote control.
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
Starting to turn north at hr 42, slight interaction with the trough, probably not enough, but we'll see
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
GFS is not like the Nam
Nam must had bad data
Nam must had bad data
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2
sroc4 wrote:Im not buying the west wobble at this time. I wish I had time to explain. In short I believe the models are underestimating just how far south the trough actually is. If you look closely at the initializations of the various models, esp in the GOM, the steering flow does not match up with the obsevered Sat imagery. The entire NW 1/2 of the GOM has a ENE asterly flow where as the models, look at euro, thinks its actually moving WSW for this time frame. In addition the steering flow on models at initiation on and N of Cuba right now do not match with observation. This is likely occurring due to the inability to intialize the pressure at the actual pressure. This small but important feature "MAY" be the reson the actual track ends up 50-70 miles east of what the west wobble indicates.
Not ready to buy into the NAM just yet. We will see what we look like on sat in the am.
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